The Middle East has a new entry for political contest with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria.
Israel and Turkey see an opportunity to improve their opposing national and regional security interests, though Iran and Russia don’t currently have the most significant influence in Syria.
Relations between the two nations have deteriorated significantly in recent years under their individual officials, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Recep Tayyip Erdoan. This sets the stage for a bloody battle over Syria.
A fresh conflict is emerging
Turkey is commonly reported to have supported the Sunni rebel group’s offensive to expel Assad from energy, backing up Syria’s standard friends, Iran and Russia.
Tehran has intimated that without Turkey’s support, Units would have been unable to reach its burning invasion.
Today, with Assad gone, Erdoğan is believed to be positioning himself as de facto leader of the Sunni Muslim world. Additionally, he wants Turkey to be a regional power with the most power.
According to Erdoan, some Arab cities, including Aleppo and Damascus, would have likely been included in contemporary Turkey if the Ottoman Empire had been divided in a different way following its battle in the First World War.
After Assad’s drop, Turkey immediately reopened its ambassador in Damascus and offered assistance to Units in creating the nation’s fresh Islamist order.
As part of this, Erdoğan has opposed any agreement by Units to the US-backed Kurdish majority in Syria’s east, which he regards as followers of the Kurdish separatists in Turkey.
In the meantime, Israel has used the power pump in Syria to expand its regional and stability goals. It has launched a land invasion into the Arab portion of the corporate Golan Heights and carried out a huge bombardment of Syria’s martial installations throughout the nation.
The destruction of these goods, which included weapons depots, fighter jet, missiles, and chemical weapons storage facilities, was necessary, according to Israel’s foreign secretary, to prevent them from being accessed by “extremists” who might present a threat to the Jewish state.
Turkey views Israel’s subsequent actions in Syria and the dominated Golan Heights as a property get. Israel’s activities have also been denounced by Muslim states, who demand Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity been respected.
Israel is undoubtedly concerned about the rise of an Islamist party to power and the formation of a jihadist position in Syria.
Despite the fact that HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa ( also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani ) has indicated that he does not want to fight Israel, this is despite the fact that the latter is known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Additionally, he has pledged never to permit any organizations to launch attacks on Israel in Syria.
In addition, al-Sharaa has demanded that Israel be removed from Arab country in accordance with a 1974 agreement that came into effect after the Yom Kippur war of 1973.
Terrible enemy
Erdoğan, Turkey’s average Islamist president, has long been a follower of the Palestinian cause and a fierce critic of Israel. Since the start of the Gaza battle, however, tensions between the two sides have gotten substantially worse.
Erdoğan has called for an Arab-Islamic before to prevent what he’s called Israel’s “genocide” in Gaza. He has also criticized Israel’s earlier this year war of Lebanon.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has lashed out at Erdoğan over the years. He has called him a” prank” and “dictator” whose prison are full journalists and political prisoners. He has even accused Erdoğan of committing a “genocide” of the Kurdish citizens.
Washington, which is associated with both Turkey and Israel, has intensified its political support to make sure that Proteomics steers Syria in the right direction. It is eager to see a post-Assad system of governance aligned with America’s objectives.
These goals include HTS’s support for America’s Kurdish friends in north Syria and the ongoing existence of 1, 000 American forces there. Additionally, the US wants Units to keep preventing the Islamic State from regaining power.
The US will also have to deal with Syria’s growing political conflict between Israel and Turkey.
Despite some spectators ‘ doubts, there is the possibility of an Israeli-Turkish military conflict if Israel revers its protracted activity of the demilitarized area on the Arab part of the Golan Heights into a permanent consolidation.
This does not mean there will be a battle between them soon. However, their competing goals and the depth of shared hostility have undoubtedly reached a new stage.
Iran’s loss may be expensive
For Iran, Assad’s resignation means the loss of a vital ally in its mostly Shia” shaft of weight” against Israel and the United States.
Over the past 45 years, the Iranian government had worked diligently to develop this system as a basic component of its national and international security. Since the popular uprising against Assad started in 2011, it had supported Assad’s minority Alawite dictatorship over Syria’s Sunni majority population at a cost of about US$ 30 billion ( A$ 47 billion ).
And now that Assad has left, Iran is deposed of a crucial land and air link with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, one of its main proxy.
Tehran is currently perplexed by the sudden demise of the Assad regime about the wisdom of its local strategy and whether it will play a major role in the new Syria. This seems unlikely, as al-Sharaa ( the leader of HTS ) has declared his disdain for both Iran and Hezbollah.
Al-Sharaa has prioritized Syria’s restoration and national unity over a fight with Israel, Iran’s bridge enemy, over the creation of a publicly mandated Islamic government. This will undoubtedly cause conflict with Iran’s moderates and secularists.
Only time will tell how all of this may turn out. At this stage, the future of Syria and the area hangs in the balance. Much of this will depend on Units officials ‘ efforts to connect a Balkanized Syria and establish an all-inclusive social system.
At Australian National University, Professor Amin Saikal is emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Eastern reports.
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