China has firmly objected to US President Joe Biden’s approval of Taiwan’s$ 571.3 million in security funding and service, accusing the country of “playing with fire” with its most recent donation of military equipment and services.  ,  ,
Individually, the US Defense Department announced that it approved$ 295 million fair of military equipment for Taipei in response to rising regional conflicts, which many people believe could become the center of global political conflicts with the anticipated ending of the Ukraine war under the approaching Donald Trump administration.
The$ 571 million in military assistance tops up Biden’s authorization of$ 567 million for the same purposes in late September. In October, He approved$ 2 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, including the first-time distribution of an advanced surface-to-air missile defense system.
A statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, which was released on Sunday ( December 22 ), urged the US to stop arming Taiwan and stop making what it called “dangerous moves that undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”
China’s largest maritime drills around Taiwan since 1996 have resulted in the most recent US military package, with the People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) stationing more than 90 warships in nearby waters stretching from the East China Sea to the Taiwan Straits and South China Sea.
The Taiwanese foreign ministry stated in a statement that “taiwan and the United States will continue to work closely together on safety issues to preserve stability, peace, and the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.”
Due to the sensitivity of the situation, Taipei declined to provide information on the” content” of the assistance “based on the tacit agreement between Taiwan and the United States.”
The stakes don’t get higher. A lately released report by the US Pentagon has warned that China has “amplified” its full-spectrum force on Taiwan over the past month, underscoring Beijing’s danger to “reunify” the area with the island.
War drum
Xi Jinping, the country’s most powerful chief, apparently instructed the Army to be prepared to launch a successful conquest of Taiwan by 2027, if needed.
If Trump follows through on his pledge to impose 60 % tariffs on all Chinese products, a move that would put pressure on China’s now troubled economy and potential ruling Communist Party, as well.  ,
If something, China is determined to create a “world-class” defense that can rival America’s by 2049. With a defence resources of$ 450 billion, China is well positioned to focus its extremely powerful army features on its own garden, such as the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
Now in possession of the world’s largest military, with as many as 395 battleforce ships to travel on vapor next year, China is also deploying , DF-27 anti-ship nuclear missiles that could drastically harm America’s military presence in the Western Pacific, including the proper outpost of Guam.  ,
Washington has the obligation to help prevent any forcible takeover of the self-ruling island nation in accordance with the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, despite adhering to a “one China” policy that calls for Beijing to be the diplomatic representative of the so-called” Greater China.”
Even if the two parties no longer have a mutual defense pact, Biden has repeatedly pledged to come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of a conflict with China.
However, there are some concerns about the incoming Trump administration’s desire to support Taiwan’s defense and even consider entering a potential grand bargain with China at the expense of Taiwan’s self-proclaimed sovereignty and regional partners ‘ security.
By signing a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA ), which would increase military interoperability and strengthen a joint response to any significant emergency in the area, including over Taiwan, US allies Japan and the Philippines have accordingly doubled down on their own defense cooperation.
Key regional players are hedging their bets ahead of a potentially disruptive second Trump presidency, while hoping for continuity in America’s China policy.
Far from a passive actor, Taiwan is preparing for all eventualities. The self-governing island nation is increasing its imports of cutting-edge American weapons systems after ratifying a record$ 20 billion defense budget in August.
This month, Taiwan received the first batch of 38 M1A2T Abrams tanks, underscoring its preparation for a possible all-out of war, including attrition warfare, in the near future.
Midway through December, the new American-made tanks were delivered to the Armor Training Command in Hsinchu County, southwest of Taipei. For next year, Taiwan is planning to allocate NTD70.6 billion ($ 2.2 billion ) for the acquisition of new US-made platforms.
Atop Taiwan’s shopping list, according to a proposal submitted by Taiwan’s legislature, are 100 Harpoon land-based missile systems, 66 F-16V fighter jets, 29 HIMARS rocket systems and a total of 108 M1A2T Abrams tanks.
” Taipei has signed contracts with the US for 21 procurement projects, totaling NT$ 716.6 billion, with final payments scheduled to be made in 2031″, Taiwan’s defense ministry said last month.
” Of this total, approximately NT$ 373.1 billion has already been paid, while NT$ 343.5 billion remains unpaid and will be disbursed according to the payment schedule”, the ministry added. Next year, Taiwan is allocating up to NT$ 70.6 billion on portable short-range air defense missiles and radar system upgrades.
Taiwan has historically adopted a “porcupine strategy,” which would significantly increase the cost of any full-scale invasion by the Asian superpower given its power asymmetry with China.  ,
Thanks to Taiwan’s sophisticated industries, robust defense budget and acquisition of modern weapons systems from the West, some military experts have proposed a “honey badger” strategy, which relies on a more proactive and” smart” deployment of state-of-the-art platforms to foil any Chinese invasion.
A second Trump presidency, however, introduces new uncertainties to US support for that strategy. Trump has stated abundantly that he favors allies shouldering more of their own defense expenses and paying more for US “protection.”
In fairness, Trump’s first term is fondly remembered in Taipei, a period that saw a historic phone call between then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and Trump, a rapid expansion in high-level contacts and joint visits, and Taipei’s purchase of$ 18 billion worth of US weapons,$ 4 billion more than the combined two terms of the Obama administration.
Trump is expected to take a more “isolationist” stance in light of rising public outcry in the United States over the massive funding of the Ukraine war, especially since he won’t be restrained by veteran and more multilateralist generals.
Trump has gone so far as to criticize Taiwan’s alleged underspending for its own defense throughout the year and has adopted more blatantly transactional language on foreign policy. ( Taiwan spends around 2.5 % of annual GDP on defense. ) Trump has referred to as” stupid” any military action that might lead to a war with China.
Trump stated in an interview earlier this year that he would “never say” whether America would stand by Taiwan and that he would maintain a” good relationship” with Chinese President Xi. ” I never say because I have to negotiate things ]with China ], right”? Trump stated this in an interview with Kristen Welker, a Meet the Press host on NBC.
Taiwan is reportedly cautious of the influence of influential figures in Trump’s plans, including billionaire Elon Musk, who has significant business interests in China. He has parodied Beijing’s position by calling Taiwan an “integral part of China.”  ,
” I think most people are anxious…Because of Trump’s unpredictability, we don’t know if Taiwan will be safer or more dangerous under his second term”, Chen Ming-chi, a former senior advisor to Taiwan’s National Security Council, told the media.
Dealing with Trump
Likely to Trump’s liking, Taiwan is reportedly mulling a$ 15 billion weapons package in the coming years. But, according to a report by the Cato Institute, a Washington-based think tank, Taiwan has yet to receive$ 20.53 billion worth of military equipment from the US due to production and delivery delays. In the past year, the Pentagon has already been stretched by significant arms transfers to Israel and Ukraine.
According to prominent Taiwanese defense expert Shu Hsiao-Huang, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research,” some new equipment encountered integration issues, which required system adjustments to meet customer demands.” This was in response to competing demands from conflicts elsewhere, making it difficult to obtain key US-made weapons like Stinger missiles.
At the same time, US regional allies are also preparing for potential contingencies. Japan has consented to reorganize US forces in Japan into a larger joint force headquarters under the US Indo-Pacific Command ( INDOPACOM) in Hawaii.
A Joint Operations Command is also being established by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces ( JSDF) to better coordinate with the consolidated INDOPACOM.
In response to growing concerns among US allies about a potential Taiwan war, Japan is expanding its cooperation with the Philippines. The Philippine Senate finally approved a visiting forces agreement-style pact after years of negotiations, which highlights growing strategic convergence between the two key US allies.
The Philippine Senate said in a statement that “ratifying the agreement further affirms the strategic partnership between the two countries and their shared goal of enhancing contributions to regional and international peace, security, and stability.
For his part, Japan’s ambassador to Manila, Kazuya Endo, emphasized how the new pact will “facilitate the implementation of cooperative activities between the forces of the two countries, further promote security and defense cooperation, and firmly support peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region”.
Trump and Taiwan were not directly mentioned by either side, but both are actively preparing for a new era of strategic uncertainty and hot great power rivalry closer to home than under Biden, as with other important US allies in the region.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian