President Joe Biden will beg Congress for more funding for Ukraine, according to Jake Sullivan, the national safety council’s leader.  , The death of this demand, if it is really put forward, will likely be a bellwether , for Ukraine’s potential.
No exact numbers have been provided for a request for money from Ukraine by the White House or the NSC thus far.
With a still-family-friendly Congress, Biden and his officials hope to pass a assess for Ukraine.  , It is, however, not at all sure he can become powerful.
If the estimate is submitted and rejected, or just not acted on, Zelensky in Ukraine may be faced with a tough three-way choice: deal with the Russians, come down in flames or withdraw from office.
The present Congress has shown a respectable support for Ukraine, having supported at least one and possibly both chambers under Democratic control in January.  , Past actions have passed both the Senate, which now is controlled by Democrats but will be Republican-dominated starting in January, and the House of Representatives, which is led by Republicans and expected to continue that approach.  ,
Trump’s support for the president will be a crucial factor yet before he takes business. Trump may question his Republican colleagues to just drop to proceed a measure in the House, largely postponing its consideration until his administration takes office if he opposes more Ukraine aid, which is a real possibility.
According to this article, support for Ukraine is still accessible for roughly$ 3 billion in funding approved by Congress.
In January of this year, Biden requested an additional ,$ 60 billion  , in emergency funding to support Ukraine. This act was part of the ,” supplemental investing”  , bundle, which also included funding for various government interests such as disaster relief, border security and defense investing. The ,$ 60 billion  , was particularly allocated for Ukraine’s ongoing military and humanitarian assistance.
The essential parts of the invoice included:
- $ 24 billion  , in , military aid, including ammunition, weapons systems ( fighter jets, air defense systems, etc ), training and logistics support,
- $ 14 billion  , in , economic aid , to stabilize Ukraine’s economy and help maintain essential government functions,
- $ 8 billion  , in , humanitarian assistance , for refugees, displaced persons, and medical aid, and
- additional funding for energy system, restoration and bolstering Ukraine’s long-term security features.
Voting in the House of Representatives
The , House , of Representatives, particularly under the leadership of , Speaker Mike Johnson , ( who took over after Kevin McCarthy’s ousting in October 2023 ), faced fierce debates over the Ukraine funding. By January 2024 criticism from within the , Republican Party, specifically from more traditional parties,  , had solidified around ending or reducing US aid to Ukraine.
Vote outcome: The , House voted 216-212 , to approve the$ 60 billion Ukraine funding package as part of a broader supplemental funding bill.
- Republican criticism: A considerable number of , Republican , people voted against the support offer, especially those from the , Freedom Caucus , and other conservatives who opposed continued international investing. They argued that US national priorities should be prioritized over domestic issues like debt reduction, inflation, and border security.
- Democratic support: Most , Democrats , voted in favor of the package, with Ukraine aid being a central issue for them as part of their broader foreign policy priorities.
The vote in the House was  , extremely close. The administration made the claim that Ukraine was triumphing in the war at the time of the vote. The national security community holds the position that Ukraine will have to negotiate with Moscow, and that claim is no longer valid.
Senate vote
The , Senate, which has traditionally been more supportive of Ukraine’s defense efforts, passed the same$ 60 billion aid package with greater bipartisan support, though there were still some Republicans who voted against it.
- Vote outcome: The , Senate voted 74-22 , in favor of the bill, with , bipartisan support , largely coming from the , Democratic caucus , and moderate Republicans.
- Republican opposition: While the opposition was still significant in the Senate, especially from conservative Republicans such as Senators , Rand Paul,  , Josh Hawley and , J. D. Vance, who have become vocal critics of U. S. involvement in the Ukraine conflict, the majority of Republicans voted in favor of the package.
- J. D. Vance is now the Vice-President Elect.
- Democratic support: Most , Senate Democrats , voted in favor of the bill, consistent with their support for Ukraine.
If Republicans were to win more money for Ukraine, it’s not clear whether that would be a majority in the Senate. Trump might argue that he needs the most control over Ukraine and ask that the Senate and House prevent the Senate from approving any funding measure at this time.
Money bills traditionally have to originate in the House of Representatives. The Senate might never consider the Biden request if the House moves a funding measure.
Consequences
Under current conditions, President Biden’s funding request for Ukraine is unlikely to be approved, at least not now.  , Even if the money becomes available, the US has few weapons it can afford to share with Ukraine.  ,  ,
What weapons do allies occasionally need from the US?  , For example, in late 2020, the US authorized the sale of 64 ATACMS and 11 HIMARS M142 launchers to Taiwan.  , Following adjustments to its defense priorities, Taiwan later increased its order, ordering an additional 18 HIMARS systems and raising its ATACMS order from 64 to 84 units.
The first ATACMS missile deliveries for HIMARS have already been made to Taiwan, according to this report. The HIMARS launchers arrived in early November. Other countries including , Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Morocco also have requested , HIMARS and ATACMS missiles. While the Pentagon and White House claim , there are enough HIMARS and ATACMS,  , the fact is that if an actual conflict occurred elsewhere, particularly in the Pacific, HIMARS and ATACMS missiles would be needed.
Likewise there are shortages of anti aircraft systems, missiles for Patriot and ammunition in various calibers . , It will take some time, measured in years, to replenish stocks of ammunition and weapons.
The US could hand over its weapon ‘s , stockpiles in Europe, but doing so would effectively disarm US troops and weaken NATO crucially.  , Therefore doing that is highly unlikely.
In the end, Biden’s request is mostly a Hail Mary pass before he is replaced in late January.
Zelensky will undoubtedly realize that American support for Ukraine is at a turning point, and that Washington’s efforts to woo Ukraine wo n’t succeed in getting more. We’re not sure whether that will convince him to talk to the Russians. But as Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, Zelensky may take the diplomatic route, or he may resign.
Former US deputy undersecretary of defense Stephen Bryen is a recognized authority on security strategy and technology. This article originally appeared on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. It is republished with permission.