Michel Barnier’s appointment as prime minister on 6 September, according to Frédéric Sawicki, professor of social science at the University of Paris 1, signals the birth of a coalition between Emmanuel Macron and Les Républicains, as well as the party’s powerful status in the far-right National Rally party. David Bornstein’s meeting was first published in French for this article.
Daniel Bornstein: Following two weeks of continuous conversations, Emmanuel Macron has appointed Michel Barnier as perfect minister. What do you produce of this decision?
Frédéric Sawicki: Firstly, let me point out that Michel Barnier is of the right wing and that he has inevitably gained the support of the conservative Les Républicains ( LR ) party, despite the fact that he is not necessarily on the same side. Therefore, the person being appointed is not just one person, but also the member of a group that has consistently rejected Macronists as a leader. So the question is: did another LR members join the authorities? Is this the beginning of a long-term partnership between LR and Macron’s group, something that has always failed?
In fact, one of the reasons for Macron’s decision to break the French National Assembly on June 10 was the result of this difficult ally. This alliance appears to be occurring in a contradictory manner at a time when neither party is as strong as it could be between 2022 and 2024, which is when it is both parties are weakened and unable to continue in power. Barnier’s visit thus demonstrates a reconciliation between the Republican straight and the Macronist camp. Although this reconciliation began during the legislative elections with the distribution of some constituencies in some departments, it did not produce any common goals or, of course, any responsibility to unite for the government. So, Macron has finally succeeded in his long-awaited goal, but only vaguely, with an Psc group that has been adamant about retaliating against the Macronists. Is this a lasting reconciliation? That remains to be seen.
There was a stage when it was thought Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right chairman of the local government of the Hauts de France, does been appointed. Suddenly, why Barnier more than him?
SF: It could be that the mind of Les Républicains, Laurent Wauquiez, twisted Macron’s arm because Michel Barnier did not represent a threat to him in the same way as Xavier Bertrand. As a reminder to visitors outside of France, Bertrand had a plan to challenge Macron in 2020, but he was defeated by Éric Ciotti, Valérie Pécresse, and Barnier himself.
Marine Le Pen had vetoed the nomination of Bertrand, but appears to have greenlit Barnier’s session. She stated on Thursday that he” seems to meet at least the first criterion we requested,” i .e., a man who is respectful of the various political parties and capable of speaking to the National Rally, the largest group in the National Assembly, in the same way as the other groups. What do you think about this?
Acc: We had to persuade LR to participate in the empire, as well as ensure that it would not soon criticize the new prime minister. Xavier Bertrand, who was elected against the National Rally in Sea Le Pen’s hometown Hauts-de-France, appeared to be less hostile to the RN than Barnier, who allegedly stood in for the RN. In his campaign for the Republican nomination in the Democratic primary of 2021, Michel Barnier called for stricter border controls and a stricter federal deportation policy for foreigners. He surprised everyone. The RN slammed this for showing positive change in him. Le Pen avoids taking the responsible for administrative dysfunction or possible problem by supporting Barnier and instead tries to assume the role of “responsible” president.
All in all, is n’t Marine Le Pen in a position of strength vis-à-vis Emmanuel Macron?
FS: We do n’t know what commitments the president made to Marine Le Pen, and we still do n’t know what Barnier’s political orientations are. However, all of this will only continue if the RN receives significant agreements. How far will Barnier come in enforcing immigration regulations? On the RN’s economic and social requirements? The major problem for the RN will be equal representation, but it will likely not be enough to get its assistance, even if only in the type of abstention.
Do you believe there will be more of this state?
Ptr: Will the National Rally later censure the state? It may require a vote on immigration. It has the authority to decide when and how the government may collapse or what it should do. All of this ultimately amounts to handing over the vehicle keys to the RN. Will Macron’s MPs ‘ supporters agree to eat for a pill, in your opinion? How far will Barnier and Macron push the regional rally’s agenda forward? Another thesis, which is highly unlikely given the conditions of his visit, but which cannot be completely ruled out at this period: Michel Barnier, with his negotiating skills, manages to avoid censure from the Socialist Party and the ecologists with solid commitments on open services, purchasing power and the natural transition.
A little like what happened in Sweden?
Ptr: Absolutely. After the 2022 primaries, the far-right Sweden Democrats, the Swedish relative of the National Rally, came out on top. They agree to impose their plan on the liberal-conservative state and not go to the polls. For the first time in France, the National Rally is likely able to negotiate and help a government’s support for the government. This is obviously the beginning of a new ally between the Liberal Right, the Conservative Right, and the National Rally. Evidently, this is in opposition to the citizens ‘ wishes. Some wonders how the National Rally’s supporters may interpret this given that Emmanuel Macron has been their adversary for years.
How do you notice the following six months?
FS: By putting the fate of the state in the arms of the National Rally, it has the chance to stop the organizations. Once she has achieved a number of triumphs, Marianne Le Pen will be able to overthrow the government at the most advantageous time. She may lead to a situation where electricity is temporarily stifled for some weeks, prompting political makes to demand the withdrawal of the Republic’s leader. In these instances, the RN may be in a position to get this vote, against opponents who are divided, discredited or ready.
Frédéric Sawicki is a professeur de scientific surtout, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne.
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