A convergence of political and commercial interests has emerged between a rapidly rising economy on the Bay of Bengal and US Indo-Pacific strategy. This convergence aims to deepen the American presence in the Indian Ocean Region amid a tectonic shift in international politics.
Under the leadership of the Dhaka interim government’s Chief Advisor Mohammad Yunus and with support from Washington by President Joe Biden, Bangladesh and the United States are poised to leverage each other’s potential for growth and expansion.
Bangladesh seeks funds to replenish its depleting foreign exchange reserves and recover from the previous Sheikh Hasina administration’s mismanagement while Washington is focused on strengthening its strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean.
The US played a significant role in supporting the movement that ousted Bangladesh’s fallen autocratic leader. Washington views the new administration under Yunus as an opportunity to enhance its presence in the Indo-Pacific, capitalizing on the Nobel laureate’s openness to greater collaboration with the West.
This evolving partnership between the leading global superpower and Bangladesh holds immense promise but also carries substantial risks.
The new administration, comprising professionals from prominent NGOs, may lack the statecraft, strategic vision and diplomatic finesse needed to navigate the complexities of international politics. Before pursuing the opportunities that this partnership offers, Bangladesh must urgently strengthen its political institutions and ensure economic stability.
Yunus’s interim administration faces significant internal and external challenges that must be tackled with cost-effective solutions. A failure to achieve stability risks further economic decline and political disorder – an outcome that would benefit China, which seeks to disrupt Bangladesh’s democratization process to protect its vested interests in the region.
Meanwhile, India, despite being a US ally, is working at cross-purposes. New Delhi strongly opposed the removal of its protégé Hasina through a US-backed student movement.
It’s the economy, stupid!
For Bangladesh to recover from 15 years of autocratic rule, exploitation and mismanagement, stability must be the top priority. Yunus must address the concerns of the Bangladeshi people, recognizing that economic and political stability are intertwined with the restoration of law and order. As the adage goes, “It’s the economy, stupid!”
The US-Bangladesh partnership has significant potential, especially as the removal of trade barriers and the easing of trade restrictions across the Indo-Pacific could lead to exponential growth.
Bangladesh’s inland and coastal regions, along with the Bay of Bengal, offer significant strategic value to the US Navy in its efforts to monitor the activities of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) including along the neighboring China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).
Political developments in Bangladesh have also created a rift between the two largest democracies in the world – India and the United States. Though the two countries are aligned on many strategic issues, they are deeply divided on the Bangladesh question.
Ahead of the political upheaval in Dhaka on August 5, 2024, Washington and New Delhi diverged on their diplomatic approaches, each pursuing its own agenda without the other’s knowledge.
India supported Hasina’s autocratic government despite its human rights violations, while the US favored regime change, adhering to its democratic values at the risk of temporarily alienating a key regional ally.
This divergence had and has significant implications for regional power dynamics. The US could use its strategic position in Bangladesh to balance India’s obstinacy and China’s expansionism in the Bay of Bengal. With India no longer perceived as a benign hegemon by most Bangladeshis, new strong ties between Dhaka and Washington could provide crucial security guarantees for Bangladesh’s sovereignty.
However, this alliance may come with a price: Bangladesh might be required to support US interests in the region, particularly in the implementation of the Burma Act, which seeks to advance democratization in Myanmar amid a raging civil war.
Belt and Road
The US may also expect the Yunus administration to cooperate in curbing China’s growing presence in the region. However, many analysts doubt that Washington’s influence over the Yunus government will significantly affect China’s interests and operations in the Bay of Bengal.
The Chinese submarine base in the Bay of Bengal, built under the Belt and Road Initiative, serves both defensive and offensive purposes given its proximity to strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca and India’s Andaman-Nicobar Islands.
China’s support for the Yunus government is based on its desire to protect its investments under the Belt and Road and maintain its strategic foothold in the region.
Bangladesh’s coastline is dotted with Belt and Road-funded infrastructure projects, such as the Karnaphuli Tunnel, Cox’s Bazar airport and the railways stretching to the Myanmar border.
These investments enhance the security perimeter of the PLA-Navy (PLAN), integrating the CMEC and coastal areas into China’s broader strategic defense.
India is unlikely to sit idly by as the US increases its influence in Bangladesh. Indian media and politicians have already begun to amplify allegations of US-engineered regime change and are waiting for an opportunity to reinstall an Indian-backed leadership in Dhaka.
Bangladesh’s concession to US demands, such as the installation of surveillance equipment and allowing naval warships near the Bay, could provoke a reaction from India.
Bangladesh is now officially recognized as a democratic country, reflecting not only regime type but also the widespread prevalence of democratic values among its population. This strong commitment to democracy provides Washington with the incentive to support the replacement of an authoritarian leader with a pro-Western democrat such as Yunus, steering the nation toward the liberal democratic order.
However, despite this optimistic turn, Bangladesh stands at a precarious crossroads. Its new democratic status and strategic value make it a key player in the Indo-Pacific but this also puts it in the crosshairs of great power competition.
The US-Bangladesh partnership may offer significant opportunities for economic growth and security. Yet it also comes with the risk of alienating India, a long-time regional power, and further provoking China, whose strategic interests are deeply entrenched in the Bay of Bengal.
In the coming years, Yunus’s administration will face the daunting task of balancing these competing interests. Bangladesh must carefully navigate these geopolitical currents to maintain its sovereignty and secure stability.
Whether the nation can manage the competing pressures from Washington, New Delhi and Beijing while fostering internal democratic growth will be the true test of its future.
Sheikh Rahman is a managing partner at Enertech International Inc in Dhaka.