Ukraine has launched a counterattack on Bakhmut coming from the west and north west. The Ukrainians have been successful in establishing a bridgehead on the western outside of the city, keeping at least one supply road open for now. The area was defended by the Russian army’s 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade, belonging to Russia’s 3rd Army.
According to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Brigade fell back (he says “ran away”) as they were outnumbered. The Ukrainian operation is best defined as a flanking operation.
Prigozhin says today that he is preparing an operation to deal with the Ukrainian bridgehead, although it isn’t clear that it is his responsibility. Meanwhile he launched an attack implying that Putin was a grandfatherly “a**hole.” It is hard to see how long Prigozhin can survive as private military contractor Wagner leader.
In a videotaped interview, Prigozhin leaked that he has received an order telling that if his group pulls out, it would be regarded as treason. He has threatened to quit Bakhmut unless he gets the ammunition and supplies he has demanded. Prigozhin’s interview with translation can be found below.
Tass reports, without referring directly to the Ukrainian operation, that “Russian assault teams continued offensive operations in the northwestern and western outskirts of Artemovsk [Bakhmut] over the past day during the special military operation in Ukraine.”
According to Tass, along the Donetsk line Ukraine has deployed the 67th Mechanized Brigade, the 80th Air Assault Brigade and the 5th Assault Brigade. Which units are actually on the western flank of Bakhmut isn’t yet clear. Russian operations are featuring air strikes by fighter-bombers and helicopters.
Keeping the road open will prolong the situation in Bakhmut as more Ukrainian troops and ammunition can be fed into the city, at least for now.
The troops used by Ukraine in this operation may have been drawn from the units preparing for the coming Ukrainian offensive. It is not yet clear what Ukrainian units were involved in this operation.
Clearly the Russians appear to have been caught by surprise.
Is Ukraine is prepared to pour more forces into this bridgehead? The Russians have strong defenses, which Ukrainian forces would have to overcome.
From a strictly operational point of view, Ukraine’s effort to hold onto Bakhmut does not make much military sense, as it plays into the Russian strategy of slowly destroying Ukraine’s military. From a political and psychological outlook, however, this is Zelensky’s battle, and he has demanded Bakhmut be held, no matter the cost.
Prigozhin was supposed to deliver Bakhmut for Victory Day, held May 9th, but he failed to do so. The Russians conducted a proforma and low key parade in Moscow, far below the norm. Almost all the important Russian army field equipment was missing from the parade, as were air defense systems. Even strategic missiles on parade were limited to just a few.
The toned down parade is hard to explain. It can’t be that the Russian army did not have equipment to put on display. It is quite true that the military leadership’s general performance in the Ukraine war is seen by Russia’s political leaders as, at best, underwhelming. It may be that Putin did not want to reward the Russian army until the operational performance improved.
In the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it was a Russian army unit and not Wagner’s forces that stepped back from the fight. Whether this was a rout, as Ukraine claims, or simply common sense when you are outnumbered depends on where you sit.
The next few days probably will tell us whether this is a one-off event or part of an effort by Ukraine to pour heavy forces into the fight for the city.
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NB: After a delay of six days, the Pentagon yesterday “confirmed” that a Patriot shot down a Kinzhal missile. I believe this is a political confirmation to support Ukraine’s claims, nothing more. Most experts don’t believe the Patriot would have any chance against the Kinzhal and the prior performance of the Patriot in the Middle East has been rather poor.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.