The Philippines and China have resumed diplomatic relations in a charge to relieve extremely rising conflicts in the South China Sea following last season’s near-fatal fight over the disputed Second Thomas Shoal.
According to a statement released by the Philippines ‘ Department of Foreign Affairs on July 2, Ma Theresa Lazaro and Chen Xiaodong, the two men had “frank and creative” discussions during the most recent round of the so-called Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM).
Both parties “affirmed their devotion to deescalate tensions without prejudice to their individual opportunities” during their first BCM in six month, a risky time that has resulted in numerous near-collisions in the contested waters and ramped up bellicose language. Nevertheless, the statement said,” ]despite ] substantial progress on developing measures to manage the situation at sea…significant differences remain”.
Asian President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is under increasing pressure on a number of sides in response to his difficult reversal to the United States and other standard supporters in response to China’s rising sea confidence in the South China Sea. Manila is exceedingly seen as joining America’s group of like-minded governments in a fight with a rival alliance led by China and Russia.  ,
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned smaller state against becoming America’s” satellite state” in his most recent televised address, as Moscow was likely to encounter resistance from Moscow.  ,
” Now, it is well known that the United States currently exports these missile systems to Europe for training, to Denmark. Very recently, it was announced that they are ]also] in the Philippines”, Putin said, referring to the Pentagon’s extraordinary implementation of the US Typhon Weapon System in the Philippines back of their mutual Balikatan more earlier this year.
The express- of- the- craft weapons program, capable of firing Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles and SM- 6 anti- plane missiles, boasts an operating range of up to 2, 500 kilometers. The standing and current location of the dangerous missile system have been kept under wraps by Asian authorities.
Some people believe it may be permanently positioned in the nation as a result of the recently expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement ( EDCA ), which grants the US rotational access to a growing number of Philippine military installations and bases.
In response, a rising song of Filipino voices has stepped up censure of the US Pentagon’s expanding military footprints in the country. The Marcos Jr. management has been accused by some liberal groups of undermining the nation’s sovereignty by blatantly supporting China in favor of the West and Japan.
Former senator Carlos Isagani Zarate, who hails from Bayan Muna’s left-leaning party, recently criticised the government for its” US satellite-like international policy,” which has led to a renewed nuclear arms race.
We demand that the Marcos management adhere to the terms of the Philippines’s constitution, which prohibit the development of a free and non-nuclear military force, and other measures. Pro- Beijing elements have likewise stepped up their criticism of the present administration’s international policy.
Main among them is former president  , Rodrigo Duterte, who , has gone so far as to criticise his son of allowing the Philippines to be “used” by Washington in a supposed “proxy war” against China. With his child, Vice President Sara Duterte, just resigning from Marcos Jr’s government, the former president has successfully positioned himself as the leader of the opposition.
In a global National Day of Protest Rally held in Tacloban City in the key islands of Visayas, Duterte hailed Foreign supreme leader Xi Jinping as a “very near friend” and successfully shifted the blame for recent rising sea tensions to his fellow countrymen rather than China.
” We were not fighting with China before. No one was bugging us, and there was no territorial dispute. We were free to fish in and out of the area. We were not molested, we were there to fish, to make a living. Duterte argued that a leader’s change of strategy only occurs when a leader changes his approach, referring to his relatively Beijing-friendly diplomacy ( even though the two countries experienced some tensions in the South China Sea during his six-year tenure ).
A suspected Chinese militia vessel rammed and sunk a Filipino fishing vessel off the hotly disputed Reed Bank in 2019 while Duterte was in office, causing a national anti-Beijing backlash in the Philippines. Duterte publicly criticised China for swarming the Whitsun Reef in the South China Sea two years later.
” I’m not sure if I’ll tell the story behind it, but I’m certain you know it well.” The Philippines allowed itself to be used, and the US used it. Every leader has a different strategy, Duterte stated in his most recent speech, underscoring the danger of overreliance on America as a countermeasure to China’s growing footprint in the South China Sea.
Interestingly, even Marcos Jr’s own sister, Imee, who heads the foreign affairs committee at the Philippine Senate, has joined the critical chorus. The presidential sister, known for her longtime ties to both the Dutertes and China, warned of a risky military upheaval in a recent interview if the Philippines continues on its current policy stance.
” Let’s admit that the problem is that China thinks we have already sided with their enemy]America]. We gave 17]Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement] sites, which China thinks are]America ] military bases. So they were incensed]by our decisions ]”, Imee Marcos said, referring to a series of Philippine military facilities that were opened to the Pentagon under EDCA.
Imee Marcos ‘ statement, like Duterte, did n’t take into account the Philippines has only given the Pentagon access to nine EDCA sites, which is inconsistent with Duterte. Foreign powers are prohibited from setting up permanent bases in the country under the Philippine Constitution in response to the US’s occupation of the nation during the previous Cold War era.
According to what we’ve read, there are American missiles in Batanes and Subic, so because of Balikatan live-fire drills, those two would be the first targets along with Ilocos. It’s scary, what is that, we are talking of 25 here, that is not a joke”, Imee Marcos added, warning of China’s possible military strike plans against American assets on Philippine soil in any armed conflict scenario.
” I’m really scared because while tensions are brewing in the]South China Sea], I saw]reports ] about China’s plans to use hypersonic missiles… The US said they could not thwart hypersonic missiles. I got more worried because I believed that other nations have this thing called the Iron Dome, which prevents missiles from entering when it comes to missiles. But when it comes to hypersonic missiles, it could enter easily. Everything]in the Philippines ] will be crushed”, she added.
The senator was then merely asked by the Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP ) to provide any useful information that the government might need in order to “take appropriate actions to ensure our nation’s security.” Top defense experts and officials have broadly dismissed Imee Marcos ‘ statement as hyperbolic, if not misleading.
There is little sign of a significant policy shift on the horizon because the majority of Filipinos support Marcos Jr.’s foreign policy in general, including his support for the US. If anything, the Philippine military has indicated that it will fight back if China continues to use vicious tactics, including a potential strategy to forcibly overtake the Second Thomas Shoal.
General Brawner, the AFP chief of staff, said,” We will use the same level of force as we would allow us to defend ourselves,” citing the possibility of more collisions with Chinese vessels in the disputed waters.
” If a knife is used, for example, our personnel will also use a knife, nothing more, under the concept of proportionality”, he added, clarifying the rules of engagement for Philippine servicemen resupplying and sustaining the country’s de facto military base on the contested shoal.
” When I said that we’ll fight back, I meant we would n’t allow ourselves to be bullied like that, just like what happened the last time because, of course, our adversaries had weapons,” Brawner said, underscoring the military’s commitment to maintain its current course despite the rising danger of armed conflict as well as criticism from well-known politicians at home.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian