On a train from Pakistan to Russia via US-sanctioned Iran – Asia Times

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Pakistan Railways Freight CEO Sufiyan Sarfaraz Dogar&nbsp, announced&nbsp, last week that the second Russian-Pakistani transport coach service will release on March 15, transiting across Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

According to reports, the line will help Russian exports of industrial and agricultural products to Pakistan and Pakistan’s exports of agrarian and textile goods to Russia.

This is the most recent breakthrough in their relationship and has been in the doing for a long time. These are three major restaurants.

Iran’s unique position

Next month’s ideas show that Russia and Pakistan are prioritizing Iran over&nbsp, Afghanistan&nbsp, as the unique travel state for expanding their diplomatic deal. That’s reasonable considering continued Pakistani-Taliban hostilities, but it also carries risks.

Trump has &nbsp, already revived&nbsp, his first government’s “maximum pressure” legislation against Iran and is therefore expected to establish secondary restrictions against all companies that also deal with it without a cancellation.

Trump’s but serious about this that he&nbsp, threatened to change or rescind&nbsp, the exemption that his first leadership extended to India, which has invested heavily in Iran’s Chahabar Port, but he’ll consistently come down cruelly against Pakistan, too.

Therein lies the problem since Pakistan has proven in the past that it will comply with American sanctions against Iran, most infamously the one that’s obstructing their&nbsp, over-decade-long pipeline plans.

So, it will likely do the same with the US ‘ latest sanctions crackdown and, therefore, abandon this route for trade with Russia.

Pakistani-Taliban tensions

By relying on Afghanistan as their transit state, Russian-Pakistani trade could be conducted more cost-effectively and economically, but that won’t be possible as long as Pakistani-Taliban tensions continue.

In a nutshell, those tensions boil&nbsp, down&nbsp, to the Taliban suspecting that&nbsp, Pakistan’s de facto military junta&nbsp, is&nbsp, secretly allied with the US&nbsp, against it.

Pakistan, in contrast, accuses the Taliban of supporting terrorist organizations like Pashtun and Baloch ( perhaps as a counterbalance to restoring the fractious balance of power ).

Although Russia is&nbsp, better positioned than anyone else&nbsp, to mediate between them, it hasn’t yet formally done so, nor might it ultimately succeed in resolving the security dilemma at the core of their disputes.

That’s regrettable because relying on Iran increases the likelihood that Pakistan will fall victim to US pressure to impose secondary sanctions.

The self-evident solution is to patch up their problems for the greater good of Eurasian connectivity, but that’s a lot easier said than done.

Will to expand

Laudably, the will exists on both sides to expand bilateral trade in spite of the described obstacles. Quite clearly, there is still a&nbsp, faction/school of the Pakistani establishment&nbsp, that is serious about diversifying their country’s economic dependence on China and testing the limits of its traditional political dependence on the US, each by means of Russia. This suggests that senior citizens are placing a little weight between the two.

No one should be mistaken about India ever developing relations with non-traditional partners like Pakistan at this historic stage of the&nbsp, global systemic transition to multipolarity, despite the fact that everyone agrees that this needs to be done at India’s expense.

The combined effect of the above mentioned imperatives is that the parties are sincerely attempting to make good on their&nbsp, economic&nbsp, agreements&nbsp, from last year in pursuit of their complementary interests.

The imminent launch of the first Russian-Pakistani freight train service through Iran, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan is a big deal, but the challenges Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy and persistent Pakistani-Taliban tensions could pose could limit bilateral trade.

The best-case scenario would therefore be for Pakistan to defy the US over Iran, address its issues with the Taliban, and rely instead on two trade routes to Russia, but that might be too much for its de facto military junta.

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber&nbsp, here.

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Only fools think Elon Musk is an idiot – Asia Times

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I’m writing a longer article, but it’s taking two times, so in the meantime, here is one of the more absurd assertions I’ve seen late:

This assertion is bad, of course. According to author Walter Isaacson, Elon got&nbsp, a 1400 on the SAT&nbsp, in the late 1980s, on his second attempt. According to all the resources I can discover, an SAT score of 1400 at the time would have about corresponded to an IQ of mid-130s. SAT ratings and IQ are very correlated. Elon was accepted into a PhD program in materials technology in the 1990s despite having a bachelor’s degree in physics. He is a person of well above average imagination.

But that’s not why Abramson’s speech is therefore absurd. The explanation it’s ironic is not its content but its&nbsp, purpose&nbsp, — it represents an attempt to reduce the government’s concern of Elon Musk and his part in American elections by calling him ridiculous. This is a&nbsp, very&nbsp, dumb thing to try to accomplish.

First of all, IQ is never a great measure of ability at the kind of stuff Elon is best at — developing and improving businesses, identifying skills, managing large numbers of people, funding, creating and communicating a vision for the future, and so on. &nbsp, Keuschnigg et cetera. ( 2023 ) &nbsp, find that IQ tends to plateau at high levels of wealth:

We use the data from the Finnish registry, which includes information on the mental abilities and job-market accomplishment of 59, 000 men who were subject to a military conscription requirement. Remarkably, we find that the connection between potential and wage is solid overall, but above €60, 000 per year ability plateaus at a reasonable level of 1 standard deviation. The income-strung individuals who are in the top 10 % also have a significantly lower cognitive ability score.

Americans once valued abilities over those that can be measured on a check because they were used to evaluate their own skills in the past. But as expertise industries grew in importance and the&nbsp, highly educated professional class&nbsp, rose in strength and notoriety, the land began to worship at the shrine of natural eloquence.

Yet many Americans who, if you put them on the spot, had vehemently disagree that having a high IQ is a racist and irrelevant concept will immediately engage in conversation with or discuss their lower IQ in a social media debate.

And yet whatever his IQ is, Elon has unquestionably accomplished incredible feats of organization-building in his career. In a post about Musk that I wrote in October, I referred to entrepreneurialism as a kind of superpower.

Even as American manufacturing ( and German manufacturing, and Japanese manufacturing, etc. ) has been hollowed out by Chinese competition and our great old companies have &nbsp, stumbled&nbsp, and&nbsp, declined, &nbsp, one single entrepreneur&nbsp, has been able to build and scale gigantic new cutting-edge high-tech world-beating manufacturing companies in the United States of America. Elon Musk, that one man.

Consider SpaceX. Without this one Musk company, America would be significantly in the space race. But with SpaceX included, the US is far&nbsp, ahead&nbsp, of China…And SpaceX is a manufacturing powerhouse. Despite doing almost all of its manufacturing in the United States, the company has been able to&nbsp, outmanufacture all of China&nbsp, in its field…SpaceX has already launched so many Starlink communication satellites into low Earth orbit that Musk’s constellation]of satellites ] now&nbsp, outnumbers all other active satellites and spacecraft combined …

It’s not as if other businesspeople haven’t tried their hands at space. Jeff Bezos, creator of the world’s premier e-commerce site and the world’s top cloud computing network, founded Blue Origin, a SpaceX competitor, but&nbsp, it lags far behind …

However, SpaceX is neither a ruse nor a special case. Despite a recent modest increase in competition, Tesla still&nbsp, utterly dominates the market&nbsp, for electric vehicles in the U. S…And when Elon recently set up a cluster of GPUs to train his new AI model, &nbsp, it was done far faster&nbsp, than Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang believed possible [. ]

As an industrialist, Elon is unmatched by any American in the country’s entire history — Henry Ford, his closest competitor for the title, failed in the aerospace industry.

Seth Abramson could not build SpaceX, or Tesla, or any of the things Musk has built, no matter how much money someone handed him. Neither could I, dear reader, and neither could you. Neither, I think, could Terence Tao, or any of the other highest-IQ supergenius mathematicians on the planet. Any of us could burn a trillion dollars over the course of our lifetimes and not end up with anything that remotely resembles Musk’s high-tech industrial behemoths.

Why would we fail? We would fail to identify the best managers and engineers even with no institutional constraints in our way. Even when we did find them, we would frequently be unable to persuade them to work for us, and even if they did, we might not be able to motivate them to put in a lot of effort each week.

We’d also often fail to elevate and promote the best workers and give them more authority and responsibilities, or ruthlessly fire the low performers. To fund our businesses, we would fail to raise tens of billions of dollars at favorable rates. We wouldn’t be successful in negotiating government contracts and driving consumer interest. And so on.

And there are probably lots of other, less obvious things that&nbsp, Musk does&nbsp, that we would fail to do:

A key driver of]Musk’s ] success is a relentless focus on solving problems fast, often by working directly with the engineers or coders who’ve gotten stuck, Marc Andreessen says…The&nbsp, legendary venture capitalist&nbsp, shared his insights from working closely with Musk on X, xAI, and SpaceX… Unlike many CEOs, Musk is&nbsp, devoted&nbsp, to understanding every aspect of his businesses, the Andreessen Horowitz cofounder and general partner said. He serves as the “lead problem solver in the organization” and is “in the trenches and talking directly to the people who do the work.”

For more than ten years, I’ve watched Elon succeed in creating seemingly impossible businesses and propelling them to new heights of success. And at every turn, there were hecklers on social media calling him an idiot, a fraud, and a huckster, and claiming that his companies were about to collapse and die. Elon has repeatedly made his hecklers eat their words, despite not breaking every promise he has ever made.

And Elon did it despite the fact that the entire apparatus of American pro-growth and anti-development policy was ineffective against what he was trying to accomplish. It’s famously difficult to build factories in America, thanks to land acquisition costs, procedural barriers like NEPA, regulation, high labor costs, and so on. Tesla still produced more cars in America in 2023 than it did in China.

Source: &nbsp, Inside EVs

California is renowned for being one of the hardest states to build in, but SpaceX makes the majority of its rockets there, almost alone, reviving the aerospace industry in the Los Angeles area. And when Elon wanted to set up a data center for his new AI business, xAI, he reportedly did it in <a href="https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/elon-musk-took-19-days-to-set-up-100-000-nvidia-h200-gpus-process-normally-takes-4-years”>19 days, according to reports. 2

Contra&nbsp, Nate Silver, none of this really has much to do with Elon’s IQ.

The traditional class resentment of the shabby educated elite toward the wealthy titans of industry is a reason some progressives still insist on sneering at Elon’s intellect. However, I believe that much of it is merely the kids ‘” cope” or” cope.”

Elon is currently putting all of the same skills he used to create his businesses, including motivating employees, avoiding red tape, identifying and overburdening every bottleneck at breakneck speed, to his effort to remake the US civil service with DOGE.

Progressives find comfort in the idea that Elon’s efforts will inevitably fail by telling themselves that he doesn’t really have any talent, that he just gets lucky, that he’s just a huckster, or that he only succeeds because of government assistance.

Another way that some people have coped with Elon’s blitz is to&nbsp, stubbornly insist&nbsp, that history is moved not by “great men”, but by slow and inexorable forces:

Of course, history is extremely complex, and only happens once, and so historians can’t really know how much of history is driven by “great men” vs. slow, inexorable forces. 3&nbsp, When pressed, &nbsp, they will admit this:

Note the key example of Genghis ( Chinggis ) Khan. Other steppe warlords tried to conquer the world but were unsuccessful, not just his choices, which had an impact on the course of history. Although Genghis may have had the advantage of being in the right place at the right time, he probably had organizational and motivational skills that made him uniquely positioned to conquer more territory than any other person in history. 4

The comparison, of course, is&nbsp, not lost on Elon himself:

Remember that Genghis Khan, who had never learned to read or write, was a master of the spelling of his own name, a stark reminder that organizational skills and book learning are two very different things before you’re tempted to sneer at Elon for missing the word” Khan.”

Progressives who concoct themselves that Elon could never conquer their nation because he doesn’t possess the highest IQ in the world are just as foolish as a 13th-century scholar who declared that an illiterate man riding a pony could never conquer his nation.

Beyond all the coping and classism, I believe there is another reason why some progressives try to refer to Elon as a dummy. Over the past 15 years, mass social media has replaced outside reality in many people’s lives, so that things that happen on Twitter/X feel more substantial than things that happen in the streets.

The only way to attack and defeat someone in this virtual world of constant denunciations and insults is to use the word “dumb” a lot and get a lot of other people to use the word “dumb” at the same time. The idea is that if enough of you call someone “dumb” at the same time, then he’s defeated, and you win. This is why Twitter/X users are constantly referring to someone as an idiot, a dunce, or some other similar term.

Except that in the real world beyond the little X app on your phone, simply calling someone “dumb” does&nbsp, not&nbsp, actually defeat them, any more than Rachel Maddow actually&nbsp, “destroys Trump” &nbsp, when she says mean things about him on MSNBC.

Maybe saying that Elon has a 110 IQ makes you feel like you beat him in your little online fantasy world, but out there in the actual world, he is still&nbsp, ripping up your national institutions&nbsp, at breakneck speed.

People who believe that denying Elon’s abilities will somehow dethrone him or cause him to vanish are simply fools because they have low IQ and are simply foolish people who don’t respond well to an external challenge. Elon Musk is, in many important ways, the single most capable man in America, and we deny that fact at our peril.

Notes:

1 The late Jim Simons is one possible exception. But probably not even him.

2 We should also consider why we built a system where only one man is capable of all this while a large number of slightly less capable entrepreneurs are also capable of doing the same things. But that’s a topic for another post.

3 As with many humanities disciplines, &nbsp, historians tend to mistake&nbsp, the current consensus within their field for objective truth.

4 I recommend Frank McLynn’s book&nbsp,” Genghis Khan: His Conquests, His Empire, His Legacy” &nbsp, as a good introduction to this history, along with Dan Carlin ‘s&nbsp, podcast series on the Mongols. A lot of people enjoy Jack Weatherford ‘s&nbsp,” Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World“, but while it’s definitely the most fun of the bunch, I think it’s a bit too hagiographic of the Mongols.

This&nbsp, article was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

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CDU-AfD coalition the right choice for Germany – Asia Times

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Germany’s crucial election on February 23 resulted in a record-breaking voter turnout of 83.5 %, the highest level since 1990. The results underscored significant shifts in the political landscape, with the right-wing Alternative for Germany ( AfD ) achieving a historic 20 % of the vote.

A potential coalition that could address Germany’s pressing national issues amid a disjointed parliament is set to emerge from this surge in AfD support, combined with the Christian Democratic Union’s ( CDU) strong performance under Friedrich Merz.

The fall of the AfD, led by Alice Weidel, offers a viable option for cooperation. A possible coalition between the CDU and the AfD had become both beneficial and useful because it is based on shared policy objectives regarding immigration and sovereignty, aligned financial visions, a shared commitment to regional security, and political pragmatism to navigate today’s challenges.

For a relationship could provide the stability and tenacity that Germany desperately needs.

Shared plan targets

The common ground that both parties share regarding multiculturalism and national independence is one of the strongest arguments for a CDU-AfD alliance. The AfD, under Weidel’s authority, has continuously advocated for stricter immigration settings, emphasizing the safety of Germany’s borders and cultural identity.

Merz acknowledges the need for reasonable immigration policies that prioritize national interests, and the CDU has changed to a tougher position. Both events recognize the government’s growing concern over inclusion and safety, making this a normal point of convergence.

A partnership would strengthen their ability to put in place effective border controls and clear prison procedures, while also ensuring that voter demands for German sovereignty are met.

The CDU and AfD had turn shared language into meaningful outcomes by combining their efforts, strengthening their standing on this crucial issue.

Blueprint for happiness

Economic legislation offers another powerful case for cooperation. The AfD’s system, which includes reducing bureaucratic hurdles and promoting market-friendly changes, aligns strongly with Merz’s perception of revitalizing Germany’s market.

Merz has emphasized the need to reinvigorate Germany’s competitive advantage through pro-business initiatives, which align with the AfD’s demands for liberalization and lower fees.

Together, they could address the inconsistencies that are limiting European industries, streamline government procedures, and create an environment conducive to growth and investment.

This synergy may allow a coalition to address pressing economic issues like rising energy costs and inflation more efficiently than either party only.

The CDU and AfD had provide voters with a clear solution to the slowdown of recent years by presenting a unified financial plan.

Another line of sight is provided by federal safety. In an era marked by political volatility, from Russia’s aggression in Ukraine to broader international risks, both the CDU and AfD prioritize a stronger protection tone.

Merz’s aggressive attitude on safety, including calling for increased military purchase, complements the AfD’s focus on enhancing Germany’s defence capabilities and asserting national liberation.

A CDU-AfD coalition would give Germany a stronger position in the face of external threats, giving it a stronger position within NATO and the European Union.

By pooling their resources and political will, the CDU and AfD could expedite defense reforms, bolster military readiness, and project a united front against adversaries. This partnership would show that Germany is ready to stand up for its interests to both citizens and allies.

Stability in a divided landscape

Finally, political pragmatism underpins the case for a CDU-AfD coalition. The CDU runs the risk of being sidelined without a trustworthy partner because the SPD and Greens might form a powerful opposition bloc. Therefore, a CDU-AfD coalition would be a strategic necessity to secure and maintain a stable governing majority.

In a fragmented Bundestag, numerical strength is essential for passing legislation. A CDU-AfD alliance would provide the votes needed to enact their shared priorities, countering the influence of left-leaning parties.

A coalition will give the CDU a chance to harness the AfD’s electoral support and ensure a fair and effective administration while guiding the government toward common objectives.

Critics might contend that partnering with the AfD could harm the CD U’s standing and turn off centrist voters. However, the CDU, under Merz’s steady leadership, could set the coalition’s tone, focusing on practical policies and engaging the AfD in constructive governance.

Moreover, the electorate’s growing support for the AfD reflects real concerns that cannot be dismissed, a coalition would allow the CDU to address these issues responsibly rather than cede ground to left-leaning forces.

The benefits of a stable, action-oriented government outweigh the risks of temporary backlash. The CDU can reassure its base while appealing to voters looking for tangible solutions by presenting the partnership as a pragmatic step toward effective governance.

In conclusion, a coalition between the CDU and AfD offers a pragmatic and powerful solution to Germany’s current challenges. By leveraging their shared goals on immigration and sovereignty, aligning their economic visions, strengthening national security, and embracing political realism, this partnership could deliver the decisive leadership the nation demands.

The CDU and AfD have the opportunity to reconcile their differences, unite their strengths, and chart a path for a more prosperous and secure Germany under Merz and Weidel. It’s time to let go of ideological reservations and form a coalition that works for the greater good.

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Russian laughter, European tears – Asia Times

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Individuals have hoped that Donald Trump’s election campaign would be more diplomatic, creative, and coherent than he did before the US presidential election in November. He claimed to be” a negotiator and a symbol” at his opening on January 20 and played to this at the time.

But every day since then has demonstrated how really this hope is being misled.

In reality, he has shown himself to be even worse than his plan had indicated and to be, evidently, a gate, not a symbol. He is putting together what can only be described as a coupd’etat at apartment. Worldwide, he is putting National alliances and ideals” through the wood shredder” – to use his stooge Elon Musk’s words.

For those who thought that under Trump, the United States may continue to support democracy, national independence, and was the most startling week so far, particularly for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

President Trump believed in a universe organized by a small number of great power, as was not really surprising to learn from his US-Russia discussions, which used older tools of laws, partnerships of like-minded countries, and social values.

We already knew from his first term in office that talking with tyrants like Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping was more comfortable for him.

But what we didn’t anticipate from him was that he would have shown more love and plan ties to President Zelensky, a person who has had his supporters killed and whose causes have kidnapped tens of thousands of Russian children, than to President Zelensky, even before any genuine peace talks have even begun.

And the lowest moment of all ( so far ) was when he accused Zelensky of being” a dictator without elections”, questioning his democratic legitimacy, and excused the real dictator, Putin, for having invaded Russia’s neighbor in the first place.

When he did so, at a news conference, he told rests, of course, but that is standard for him.

He made up the fabricated claim that Zelenskyy’s support standing in Ukraine is just 4 %, despite recent surveys showing it to be close to 60 %.

And he falsely claimed that since the Russian conquest, America has provided US$ 350 billion in military and financial assistance to Ukraine, despite the truth being that only about a third of that is actually spent.

However, he made the claim that Ukraine needed to hold primaries if its government wanted to be seen as political and genuine, something that is more important than the lies.

This, too, is a rest, but – yet worse – it is a bit of Russian propaganda. The truth is that the Ukrainian Parliament last year voted to prolong presidential elections that were scheduled for April 2024 because it is impossible to hold primaries during a conflict and when the nation is in martial law.

All political events were in favor of the decision, which was political. They agreed that votes may be held within the first six months of fighting law’s finish.

Some users may recall that I wrote on December 21 that Zelenskyy might need to create a “final noble work” by declaring that he would not run for president again when a final election is held. This drew condemnation from some prominent European critics, who feared that this was playing into Putin’s arms.

I was suggesting that Zelenskyy make his retirement announcement at the conclusion of the peace talks as a last act to take them to a close, which is quite probably why I didn’t explain this argument in a clear way. I didn’t suggest that this should be made public before the agreements also started, as Trump has done.

Trump’s criticism of Zelenskyy’s legitimacy makes his defection neither feasible nor desirable from the perspective of Ukraine, and it is now possible to garner more Russian support for him.

Yet the Russians are surprised by what Trump has said, and they don’t shy away from revealing it. Dimitry Medvedev, a former leader who is now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, wrote on X that” If you’d told me just three months ago that these were the words of the US senator, I would have laughed out loud”.

Three opinions are obvious. The first is that allies in Europe and other countries must unite around Ukraine’s aspect, not with vague ideas but quickly and decisively, so that it can be strengthened when peace talks begin.

Ukraine is German, is fighting for Europe’s surveillance and must be protected and embraced by Germans, to defend it now from the American and Russian demons.

As Germany will not have a new state for several weeks after Sunday’s votes, the program for this will have to be taken by some, likely Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer. No one is anticipating Italy to advance, but it would be a nice wonder if it did.

The second assumption is that President Trump thinks no just like an conventional great-power head, from the age of Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill, but even like a gang. He allegedly extorted Ukraine by suggesting that it should surrender material right worth US$ 500 billion in exchange for its previous support, before becoming irritated when Ukraine, on a valid basis, refused.

This lesson should be applied to all small and medium-sized nations dealing with this British gang.

Thirdly, the international organizations in which the United States has a significant role, such as the G7, NATO, and the G20, had presently act and think like the G6, a non-US NATO, and the G19.

This does not think they may push the United States out, but it does imply that the non-American people need to have individual conversations so they can be more effective in their own actions.

This past year, the Trump administration refused to accept a document G7 statement on the anniversary of Russia’s invasion on February 24, 2022, because it included the word” Russian anger”.

What the other six people ( France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Japan and Canada ) need to do now is to throw out their own individual speech, as in earlier times, telling the truth. Then, Russia will have even more reason for laughing, and the rest of us for grief.

Originally editor-in-chief of The Economist, Bill Emmott is now president of the&nbsp, Japan Society of the UK, the&nbsp, International Institute for Strategic Studies&nbsp, and the&nbsp, International Trade Institute.

Actually published on his substack, Bill Emmott’s Global View, this is the English classic of an article published on February 22 in European by La Stampa. It is republished these with kind authority.

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The neocons lost Ukraine and want to blame it on Trump – Asia Times

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” Betrayed”!, shouts the headline in Der Spiegel, Germany’s top left-wing news outlet.

” Trump’s embrace of&nbsp, Putin is a Molotov-Ribbentrop crisis for Europe” ,&nbsp, declares&nbsp, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard&nbsp, in the&nbsp, London&nbsp, Daily Telegraph.

The putatively pro-Trump&nbsp, New York Post&nbsp, devoted&nbsp, its&nbsp, Feb. 21&nbsp, entrance website to&nbsp, an expanded screed&nbsp, against the US senator by neocon&nbsp, wordsmith&nbsp, Douglas Murray.

From the shrieking in the&nbsp, war&nbsp, camp, you’d assume it was the end of the world. But it’s not the end of the world: It’s just the close of them. Little fails like a loss, and the twenty-year effort to change the Russian government from Ukraine lacked blatant failure as the Russian Federation built more arms than the entire NATO combined. Unrelenting Russian increases &nbsp, hollowed out the Ukraine Army.

The war group’s only desire is to blame their loss on Trump, and to roll out the&nbsp, conflict&nbsp, until it becomes a permanent position of&nbsp, war. &nbsp,

Trump has proposed a great plan for a worldwide arms race reduction that would allow the United States to reduce its defense budget by half and prevent a potential British debt crisis. &nbsp, That may leave the everlasting national protection establishment in Washington, Brussels, and London useless and poor. &nbsp, The establishment won’t go down without a struggle.

The Biden Administration feared that the Russian economy may crumble under US restrictions. In March 2022&nbsp, President Biden&nbsp, declared,” The Russian economy is on track to be cut in half” .&nbsp, On the contrary, real per capita GDP in Russia was 6 % higher in 2024 than in 2021. Prices and high interest rates have been caused by Russia’s round-the-clock combat economy, but they now produce and spend more than they did before the war started. &nbsp,

The&nbsp, entirety&nbsp, of the foreign legislation establishment—from&nbsp, progressive globalists like Tony Blinken and Jake Sullivan to neocon Republicans like&nbsp, Trump’s dismissed National Security Advisor&nbsp, H. R. McMaster&nbsp, and former Defense Secretary&nbsp, James Mattis&nbsp, insisted that&nbsp, Ukraine did love Russia with sufficient American aid. &nbsp, They were thunderingly bad.

At the cost of Western Europe, Asia benefited from discounted Russian energy imports. &nbsp, As the European media support Deutsche Welle reported&nbsp, February 22:

In 2021, about 50 % of Russia’s export went to European countries … However, by the end of 2023, less than two decades after the war began on February 24, 2022, the image was entirely transformed. &nbsp, Recently published figures for 2023 show China and India out in front as Russia’s two main export markets, accounting for 32.7 % and 16.8 % respectively — half the total. India accounted for only 1.5 % of Russian exports in 2021, compared to 14.6 % for China.

To the surprise of European war managers, Russia produced more weapons than the combined NATO states, increasing its overall weapons output&nbsp, threefold, &nbsp, including&nbsp, seven times more weaponry shells&nbsp, than the combined West&nbsp, according to&nbsp, Estonian&nbsp, military knowledge estimates. &nbsp, India, Turkey, the original Central Asian Russian States, as well as China all increased their imports to Russia, &nbsp, investing in local economies to avoid financial sanctions on Russia. &nbsp,

The foreign policy creation didn’t say convincingly that Russia’s market is on the verge of collapse, but it continues to&nbsp, lay about the state of the battle on the ground.

The Western press is full of wildly exaggerated reports of Russian casualties, and Ukraine refuses to release casualty statistics. &nbsp, But the best estimates of US military intelligence officers&nbsp, state that Ukraine’s casualties are significantly higher than Russia’s – and Ukraine has a quarter of Russia’s population. Some 6.3 million Ukrainians are registered as refugees in Europe, and a reported&nbsp, 650, 000 Ukrainian men&nbsp, had&nbsp, fled the country to avoid military service&nbsp, as of November 2023. Today’s total is higher.

Western media&nbsp, claim that Russia is taking heavy casualties in “human wave” assaults. This is pure invention. The war is waged on a small-unit level, with dozens rather than hundreds or thousands of soldiers present at any one time. A senior US military intelligence officer who covered the Ukraine war in a memo from January:”…

There are few troop&nbsp, movements or assaults that involve larger-than-platoon forces. In fact, on any given day there might be 150-200 “assaults” by the Russians. A single assault will involve one or more squads, each of seven-to-10 troops, moving on a Ukrainian position.

The two or more squads aren’t tightly coordinated; instead, they are simply attacking in the same general area at once. Prior to the Ukrainians ‘ engagement with the APC(s ), the assault typically involves being moved to the forward lines in one or two armored personnel carriers and dropped off.

The squad then divides into three to four-total-trooper fire teams and moves forward. They search for Ukrainian troops as far as they can and go forward. Once discovered, the Ukrainians engage the Russians using both their own and whatever else they have available, including FPV drones ( suicide drones ), FPV drones ( suicide drones ), artillery, and aviation, if applicable. &nbsp,

The attack continues until everyone in the slit trench, bunker, building, etc., in front of them is dead. Then they leave. &nbsp,

As can be seen, using such tactics, and with the goal of killing Ukrainian soldiers&nbsp, versus taking land as priority one, there is unlikely to be any sort of “breakout”.

Russia, in contrast to Ukraine, allows the publication of accurate casualty statistics, such as those found on Mediazone, which” combates through numerous Russian websites to locate reports of individual family members who have died in combat.” According to the cited US intelligence officer, these numbers have closely matched estimates made by various outside observers who have used verified reports from various units and scaled those up to obtain estimates.

Mediazone reports that current Russian dead ( end of December 2024 ) is just short of 87, 000 and gives an upper bound of 120, 000 to that number. Checking of their numbers shows that about 17, 000 have died in the last 100 days – the period of the renewed Russian&nbsp, “offensive”.

Russian soldiers killed in action&nbsp, (KIA ) &nbsp, total between 87, 000&nbsp, and 120, 000 through December 2024, which implies wounded in action ( WIA ) of between 305, 000 and 480, 000. The claim of 40, 000 Russian casualties per month by the Ukrainian General Staff is simply unsupported by close scrutiny and likely to be overstated by at least 100 % ( they are more than twice as many ).

Ukraine casualties, in this intelligence officer’s estimate, are at least &nbsp, 108, 000 KIA and 375, 000 WIA. But&nbsp, the more likely numbers are 160, 000 KIA and 640, 000 WIA. In addition, Ukrainian desertions are tremendous. There were more than 100 000 Ukrainian soldiers facing desertion charges, according to reports from various different sources as of the middle of December. &nbsp, Russia is suffering huge losses but, in absolute terms, Ukraine’s losses are probably worse. When taken as a whole, against the fact that Russia has a population of nearly 150 million ( 5 times larger than Ukraine ), the war of attrition is not sustainable.”

Whether Russia or Ukraine started the war is an issue for sophists, not strategists, but the mainstream media&nbsp, have made it an obsession. &nbsp, Trump&nbsp, declared February 18&nbsp, that Ukraine&nbsp” ,should have never&nbsp, started” &nbsp, the&nbsp, war three years ago, &nbsp, to howls of protest from the war camp.

Technically, as Trump acknowledged in a Fox News radio interview February 21, Russia fired the&nbsp, first shots. But&nbsp, Trump has &nbsp, stated repeatedly that&nbsp, Zelenskyy’s insistence on&nbsp, NATO membership for Ukraine was a tripwire for war. &nbsp, He told&nbsp, venture capitalist&nbsp, David Sacks &nbsp, in a podcast&nbsp, last June, &nbsp, as I reported&nbsp, at the time:

” Biden was saying all the wrong things. &nbsp, And one of the worst things he was saying was, no, Ukraine will go into NATO. &nbsp, When I listened to him speak, I said, this guy’s going to start a war. As you may well know, there has never been any talk of Russia entering Ukraine for years. That would have never happened. Russia was never going to attack Ukraine.”

Russia&nbsp, advanced a plan –&nbsp, the so-called&nbsp, Minsk II&nbsp, agreement – for&nbsp, an independent, sovereign and&nbsp, neutral&nbsp, Ukraine, with autonomy in language and&nbsp, cultural matters for Russian majority areas. &nbsp, Zelenskyy and his backers in Washington and London&nbsp, abandoned the agreement. &nbsp, The long-serving former German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared in her memoirs, published in November 2022, that the West&nbsp, pretended to negotiate with Russia on the Minsk II framework” to buy time” for Ukraine to re-arm. &nbsp,

Putin’s response to the extension of NATO to the Ukrainian-Russian border was the same as America’s response to the prospect of Russian missile deployments in Cuba in&nbsp, October&nbsp, 1962. &nbsp, As the Russian leader&nbsp, declared&nbsp, on February 23, 2022, on the eve of the war:

The Alliance, its military&nbsp, infrastructure has reached Russia’s borders. This is one of the main reasons behind the European security crisis, has had the worst effects on the entire international relations system, and has led to the loss of trust.

The situation continues to deteriorate, including in the strategic area. As part of the US project to build a global missile defense system, positioning points for interceptor missiles are being established in Romania and Poland. The launchers deployed there are widely known to be capable of operating Tomahawk cruise missiles and offensive strike systems.

In addition, the United States is developing its all-purpose Standard Missile-6, which can provide air and missile defense, as well as strike ground and surface targets. In other words, the allegedly defensive US missile defense system is expanding and developing its new offensive capabilities.

According to the information we have, it is possible that Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the subsequent deployment of NATO facilities are already in the makings and only a matter of time. We clearly understand that, given this scenario, the level of military threats to Russia will increase dramatically, several times over. And I want to point out right away how much more likely it will be that someone will strike our nation right away.

Just&nbsp, as President Trump said, Ukraine and its NATO backers provoked the war. &nbsp, Not only did they provoke a war that never should have begun, they bungled its execution, woefully underestimating Russia’s capacity to&nbsp, adapt to new warfare technologies, and overestimating Washington’s ability to&nbsp, choke Russia&nbsp, with&nbsp, sanctions. &nbsp, The war party faces not only shame and humiliation but unemployment, and it will do anything in its power to prevent this.

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AI revolution: wellness, wealth and a world without work – Asia Times

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Nouriel Roubini, a well-known scholar, likes to make provocative estimates. According to Roubini, who is dubbed” Dr. Doom,” the Artificial revolution will result in significant increases in success and customer prices, as well as job losses that could topple to 80 % in many industries.

Roubini predicts that governments will introduce universal basic incomes ( UBI ), unconditional payments that would replace social security, unemployment benefits, and other social benefits, to maintain economic activity and stop widespread social unrest. AI will become subject to a portion of the cost’s taxation. &nbsp,

Roubini’s timeframe for the end of most labor – 20 times – is positive, but AI will eventually eliminate the need for most job as we know it. People will rather appearance for purpose-driven habits. The healthcare sector, which caters to mental, spiritual and physical animal health, could be the main beneficiary.

Graph illustrating the exponential growth of AI ( machine brain ) power. Timeline diagram: Handel Jones, IBS, Inc.

Amara’s laws

In the 1970s, American researcher and futurist Roy Amara made his famous statement about technological adaption that came to be known as Amara’s laws: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”

AI is a case in point. By the 1980s, scientists predicted that AI may exceed individuals in all areas of knowledge. By far more than half a decade, they were off the mark. By 2030, experts today forecast that AI will surpass individual features in the majority of fields.

On the other hand, present innovations show that AI, in combination with large-scale automation and robotics, is bringing us closer to Roubini’s projection: The end of almost all job that relies on regular, repetitive tasks. Advances in East Asia, and particularly China, offer a glimpse of the future.

More than half of the total industrial drones in China are near two million, or nearly half of it. Additionally, Foreign producers have created AI-controlled robots for a range of tasks, including adding and cleaning solar panels, raking up crops, and planting trees.

Chinese manufacturers of technology, batteries, solar panel, and container and logistics companies have reached technology rates of over 90 %. China’s latest electric vehicle ( EV ) factories have the capacity to turn out a car every 30 seconds.

Chinese EV manufacturer BYD recently installed 500 multitasking human robots that can do everything from sorting parts and using energy screwdrivers to carrying out visual quality inspections.

The supply chains and manufacturing processes are undergoing an ever-smaller increase in human work.

By 2030, China may account for nearly half of global production, fueled in large part by its result in the rollout of AI-powered automation and robotics.

AI resurrending itself

AI’s influence will go far beyond increasing production and transportation. Few jobs will be safe, according to the most recent advancements in the creation of Large Language Models ( LLM) like China’s DeepSeek and ChatGPT.

LLMs may produce articles, create technical paperwork, review contracts, analyze clinical images and automated software testing. Facebook’s chairman, Mark Zuckerberg, told an interviewer last month that his business may start replacing software professionals with AI as early as this time.

This year, AI will be performing the work of mid-level engineers, according to Zuckerberg, who added that “we’ll get to the point where most of the script in our apps and the AI we create is really going to be written by AI engineers rather than people engineers.”

There will be extraordinary productivity gains in a growing number of industries. https ://www .statista.com/site/insights-compass-ai-future-ai-work

Abundance

Roubini adheres to the essay of revolutionary Peter Diamantis, co-author of the best book” Abundance: The Coming Is Better Than You Think”. We will soon be able to satisfy the fundamental requirements of every person on earth, including children and men, according to Diamantis. Everything is within our reach, and presence for all is within our reach.

Like Roubini, Diamantis believes that AI, technology, and different systems will be able to produce consumer products in virtually unlimited quantities, and at ever-decreasing value. Consumers will experience a lower cost of living as a result of the deflationary effect, but the challenge will be to keep up with demand, which necessitates addressing wealth inequality.

Wealth inequality in many countries, already at historic levels, will only increase unless mitigating measures are taken. So does Roubini’s claim that the enormous increase in wealth that will be created by AI can be financed by a guaranteed universal basic income ( UBI ) that is on the rise.

Aware of the potential social-economic impact of AI in the coming years, prominent tech industry leaders, including Elon Musk, Sam Altman of OpenAI, and Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, have voiced support for a UBI. Google, Apple and Cisco have even donated money to UBI pilot projects.

The launch of a UBI is a key factor, according to a study by the UNDP. If introduced too early, it could impact a country’s competitive strength.

Additionally, a UBI would need to be a component of a complete overhaul of the current social security net and the tax system.

Wellness for all

A world without work will mark a milestone in human history, regardless of whether it occurs sooner or later.

In the 20th century, machines reduced the economic value of our physical power. In the 21st century, AI will reduce the economic value of our professional knowledge, be it accountants, architects, or attorneys.

Most people believe that their identity is inextricably linked to their work or professional abilities. Work provides the satisfaction of accomplishment and has largely defined our social standing.

Deprived of the security of work and its accompanying status, people will seek new values and a new purpose-driven lifestyle. The wellness industry, catering to mental, spiritual and physical improvement, could be one of the primary beneficiaries.

The wellness industry will grow by 9 % to 12.5 % in the next decade, outpacing overall economic growth.

The wellness sector can assist in reducing the social and psychological effects of a work-free world. It offers everything from community-based wellness experiences to group therapy, mindfulness training, and courses on integral thinking and resensitizing ourselves to nature. &nbsp,

The wellness industry, which emerged in the 1970s, is expected to grow between 9 % and 12.5 % in the next decade, outpacing the overall economy. Although AI may also have an impact on the wellness sector, work that necessitates human compassion will be largely shielded from the job losses brought on by the AI revolution.

With the rise of AI, East Asia has a demographic reason to be anxious. In Japan, the median age is 49 years and rising. In 20 years, the ratio of non-working to non-working people will be close to 1 to 1. Both South Korea and China share comparable demographics.

Despite being the “oldest” region in the world, East Asia could become a trendsetter in the post-work era. The region produces the majority of the hardware needed for Industry 4.0 and is unaffected by existential concerns about AI. Moreover, China is integrating AI education into its primary and secondary school curricula.

China’s Ministry of Education issued guidelines in December of last year mandating that younger primary school students concentrate on learning about and experiencing AI technologies, while middle school and elementary school students are expected to learn and apply AI concepts.

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Exclusive: Indonesia opposition leader cries out hours before arrest – Asia Times

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JAKARTA–” Sukarno] Indonesia’s first president and anti-colonial innovative ] struggled for 30 years. I can spend one or two years in jail”, said Hasto Kristiyanto, secretary general of the Indonesia Democratic Party-Struggle ( PDI-P), the country’s largest political party, in an exclusive interview with Asia Times.

Hasto’s commitment was tested just five days later when he was detained and accused of obstructing the justice in a corruption investigation with Indonesia’s Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK).

In the February 15 meeting, given shortly before his arrest, Hasto struck a angry voice. ” I am absolutely innocent”, he said. ” This is just a political issue because of my criticism of Jokowi] Indonesia’s former president’s nickname ] and the damage he has done to Indonesian democracy”.

Hasto’s arrest has sent ripples across Indonesia’s politicians, raising issues of a fresh slide toward dictatorship in a country still haunted by years of heavy-handed law.

The shift is a sharp increase in the difficult three-way conflict between President Prabowo Subianto, original President Joko” Jokowi” Widodo and ex-President Megawati Sukarnoputri, who leads the PDI-P and is the daughter of democracy warrior Sukarno.

Hasto is commonly seen as Megawati’s right-hand person. The PDI-P is now the only political party in the country that does not belong to Prabowo’s overcoat partnership.

As part of his strategies to unite the country, Prabowo has frequently wished for PDI-P to meet his government. But, Widodo, a two-term leader under PDI-P who gradually fell out with Megawati, remains a key stumbling wall.

As leader, Widodo proved essential in Prabowo’s vote win. Widodo’s child, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 37, serves as Prabowo’s vice president, an arrangement that only became probable after a contentious Constitutional Court decision that lowered time limits for evil leaders. At the time, the judge was led by Widodo’s brother-in-law.

Additionally, Prabowo has appointed well-known Widodo allies to senior federal jobs. This includes the chairman of the KPK, which is now leading Hasto’s trial.

Widodo’s connection with the PDI-P and Megawati imploded when he chose to rear Prabowo over the PDI-P’s recommended member, Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo, for the presidency. Widodo had already indicated that he would support Pranowo in accordance with Megawati’s intentions.

Hasto, who is currently jailed, has gained traction as a prominent Widodo writer. ” He wants to still be chairman”, Hasto told Asia Times before his arrest, referring to Widodo. He therefore desired that [him ] could rule the new president.

Hasto read out lengthy passages essential of Widodo during the interview in response to his recently finished university research on Indonesia’s social structure.

Hasto claims that this kind of censure caused him to face legal issues. How did he intend to rebel against? ” We will incorporate the democratic process and the legitimate method”, he said, without elaborating on techniques. &nbsp,

On the constitutional before, Hasto stands accused of orchestrating a 2019 try to pay a former director of Indonesia’s General Election Commission to secure a PDI-P president’s place in congress. To date, three, including an support of Hasto, have been convicted in connection with the problem violence.

Some people anticipated Hasto to be ensnared as well when the inspection was announced in 2020. An investigation is currently being conducted to determine whether the previous KPK leader, who was then a Megawati ally, interacted improperly to defend him.

When asked about this, Hasto dismissed the allegations and instead focused on what he claimed were legal flaws in the case against him and promises that witnesses had been given gifts and faced coercion to persuade them to speak against him.

After a judge had previously rejected his earlier attempt to kill the situation on legal grounds, Hasto was on February 15 and was planning to reopen his pre-trial appeal to have the cost dismissed.

He also cited the PDI-P’s story, including how it fought to win a significant legal event in 1996 while the Suharto regime was in power, by using courtrooms nationwide to file hundreds of appeals until a judge granted them a favorable ruling. ” As]Megawati] said then, if we can get just one judge that has moral force, we can win”.

Unfortunately, though, the social may be the key element in his fight. Although Megawati has occasionally criticized Widodo, she has so far shied away from attacking Prabowo, a former member of the special forces who is accused of violating human freedom. In Jakarta, there have been rumors of a Megawati-Prabowo meet being used as a precursor to achieving political consensus.

Before his imprisonment, Hasto told Asia Times,” They will match when it is the right minute,” suggesting a day in April after the end of Ramadan.

But, Hasto revealed that Megawati and the other leaders had already exchanged phone calls on numerous occasions during which they seemingly discussed the need for checks and balances in Indian democracy.

” Among the two leaders there is already a clear understanding of each other’s condition”, Hasto added. They have a great past together, they say, and there is no obstacle to their success. However, in 2009, Prabowo ran clumsily as Megawati’s vice presidential nominee under his Gerindra group symbol.

Hasto denied that Megawati has contacted Prabowo about their situation, but acknowledged that the state of their chemistry would undoubtedly have an impact on his legal situation. ” Everything is connected”, he said.

Had Megawati lead her group to join Prabowo’s government? Hasto did never absolutely rule out the possibility, even though saying Megawati is for presently resolute in her decision to stay in the criticism.

” The trouble that is coming from Gibran”, said Hasto, referring to the vice president and brother of Widodo. When Gibran represents a violation of legal regulation, how can we add the cabinet?

Whether this quasi-amicable place toward Prabowo holds since Hasto’s arrest is questionable. PDI-P members openly and admit to being shocked by the latest turn of events, having anticipated a political settlement.

According to a reliable source, serious preparations for actions should Hasto face jail time actually started not in December when the analysis was made public, but only last week as it became clear that his pre-trial reading to dismiss the case against him was going badly.

However, with Hasto’s incarceration, the PDI-P appears to be digging in and taking a harder line. Hasto may remain as secretary-general despite his being imprisoned, which could hinder the influence of groups within the party more willing to compromise with Prabowo’s administration and by collaborating with Widodo.

The party even moved to censure Prabowo. All PDI-P people who held elected local offices withdrew from Prabowo’s requirement for all lately elected local politicians to attend a one-week ideological retreat.

If the marriage deteriorate more, the PDI-P may find itself under severe pressure. Three different important PDI-P numbers – a former chancellor, a previous governor of Jakarta and the president of Semarang– are all facing high-profile KPK investigations.

Prabowo himself continues to be very well-liked, with a new ballot estimating his approval rating at about 80 %. His administration’s radical funds revisions have not yet been widely publicized, despite student protests that were dispersed this year.

The PDI-P may return to its foundations if it were to revert to the politically motivated opposition. The group formed in 1996 as Megawati began to march opposition to then-President Suharto’s dictator. The PDI-P was at the forefront of the political opposition when Suharto was toppled by the Asian financial crisis in 1998.

” They have to be afraid of me, of]Megawati], of the PDI-P because of our story”. Immediately, Indonesia will view if this is indeed the case.

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Trump’s worldview becoming clear for all to see – Asia Times

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The United States sent some very clear messages to Europe last week that it is ready to overturn the world order.

US Vice President JD Vance remarked to a startled Munich Security Conference that there is an “enemy within” to officials who disobey their own needs and values. He even advocated for right-wing political parties to be brought into the major.

However, at a meeting of NATO defence officials, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth talked about challenging power, the warrior attitude and the need for NATO people to spend up to 5 % of their Earnings on defense. The most recent increase, the long-standing NATO recommendation, is only about 2 %.

He reiterated his commitment to the defense of Poland ( and NATO ) and pledged to bolster the US military presence there. But, despite the mixed communication, the United States is certainly leaving Europe anytime soon.

However, according to reports, President Donald Trump wants a considerable levy to pay back Ukraine for its support and protection.

The mixture of these statements has left politicians and pundits wondering whether the US-led global order, with its multilateral institutions, is on its cue?

Destruction of the rules-based get?

From the remains of the Second World War, the United States was instrumental in creating the rules-based global order.

Detractors have criticized the UN-related organizations that have been established at this time. But the rules-based get is probably best viewed as Voltaire saw the Holy Roman Empire:” no means divine, nor Roman, nor an kingdom”. Those who support the rules-based order’s fate should be cautious with their intentions.

Due to 1945, there was hardly ever a system of reliable foreign exchanges. And while powers have made some exceptions for themselves, the world’s experience has still been marked by remarkable stability and prosperity thanks to the rules-based purchase.

But, why would the United States today appear to be retreating from this arrangement? This is partially explained by the declining US effect.

Polish Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz and US military are in Poland, according to US Secretary of Defense Hegseth. &nbsp, Photo: Pawel Jaskolka / EPA via The Talk

Trump and China

We must go back 25 years to the day China joined the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) to properly contextualize the current events.

In the belief that market reform may eventually lead to political liberalization, then-US President Bill Clinton supported and facilitated this action.

Since therefore, China’s expansion has skyrocketed owing to its ready accessibility to world markets. But it’s retained a strong feudal method, counter to the nature of the WTO. The West’s concerns about the changing world power stability have increased significantly as a result.

Since Xi Jinping’s rise to power in 2012, in special, China has taken on an adversarial position to the rules-based purchase, following its own set of rules.

In reality, China previously sought democratic and trade liberalization, but the world did not. Instead, the regulations, as they were implemented in China ( and a small portion of Russia ), made it possible for state-owned companies to co-opt, if not completely steal, technology shared by their international business partners.

International businesses were forced to leave China and had trouble putting themselves in the same league as domestically priced Chinese goods.

Trump’s increase is, in part, a reaction to these improvements. During his first word from 2017–20, Trump grimly attempted to take a hostile, transactional approach to international relationships. Then, as he begins his second term, he has a much more clear-eyed plan of action.

What does Trump anticipate then

Trump’s new perspective of interpersonal relationships with America’s standard partners was shockingly obvious at the Munich Security Conference.

In his opinion, the United States is more intent on acting as a tremendous energy with its own economic interests at heart than is reversing into protectionism. Trump wants the US to take its place in a world where spheres of influence problem just as much, if not more, than any specific set of regulations.

Undoubtedly, the US is no longer advocating for globalism, in which states cooperate as equal. Today, it’s focused more on multi-polarity – a globe with some great power, in which the US puts its own objectives first. As Trump often reminds us,” America First”.

Friends and adversaries have also been taking unfair advantage of, in this viewpoint, according to this perspective:

  • America’s famous openness ( notably its borders )
  • its liberal trade policies ( which, according to Trump, has led to the de-industrialization of the American heartland ).

Its supporters have also benefited from the benevolence of its safety umbrella, which has resulted in their reckless approach to security.

The Trump president’s solution to all of this involves doling out hypocritical advice. Vance demonstrating this by urging their calm immigration plans to be reversed.

YouTube video

]embedded information]

JD Vance’s talk to the Munich Security Conference.

Additionally, it distributes some strong medicine, purportedly in an effort to elicit a response in Western capitals to substantially increase their defense spending. This would help the US to step up from being Europe’s security surety and finally accomplish its long-talked-about pivot to Asia and concentrate on its primary attack: China.

Russia is undoubtedly a part of this strategy. Trump’s alleged goal is to remove or destabilize China by attempting to sever Russia from its Chinese hug. A tough-fought agreement with Russia regarding Ukraine may be the rate he’s willing to pay to get that happen.

For America’s nearby security and economic associates, this presents an extraordinary problem. The outdated assumptions and expectations not long appear to hold true. What’s important then is not so much America’s shared beliefs with Europe, it’s their clashing objectives.

For America’s friends, as well as its opponents, this is going to involve some hard thinking and new techniques, both economically and physically.

The Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre is led by John Blaxland, a teacher.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Trump’s grand design for world stability – Asia Times

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Subscribe right away and get the first year for only$ 99. With a one-month trial for only$ 1, subscribe now&nbsp.

Trump’s great design for world balance

David Goldman argues that political chance has fallen, and market volatility has declined as the fresh Trump administration’s policies taking shape. Despite initial confusion, areas are reacting favorably to an emerging proper platform from Washington.

Trump, Intel and TSMC: Is there a bargain around?

According to Scott Foster, TSMC may use taxes and financial pressure to force international businesses into moving their manufacturing to the US to take control of Intel’s factories at the Trump government’s request.

Merz set to get European elections, but partnership math also unclear

Diego Faßnacht reports on Germany’s looming national vote with the CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, poised to become the largest group. Whether a Merz-led government can handle Germany’s architectural financial shortcomings is unclear.

What the US-Russia speaks in Riyadh mean for Ukraine

According to James Davis, the US-Russia summit in Riyadh represents a major change in US policy toward Ukraine, but major obstacles still exist. German criticism, Zelensky’s opposition, and US political dynamics complicated efforts to reach a quality.

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Chabahar: Where Trump is hurting India and helping China – Asia Times

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According to official readouts and media reports, Iran’s Chabahar Port appeared to be off the two leaders ‘ broad agenda when Indian Prime Minister Narendra met with US President Donald Trump at the White House.

While Modi and Trump agreed to de facto restore diplomatic relations, including India’s pledge to develop broad trade links and buy more American goods, including weapons, oil, and gas, India’s continued involvement in Chabahar has the ability to turn into a major sticking point. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The interface, which India is developing and running under a 10-year deal signed in 2024, is crucial to New Delhi’s effort to bypass Pakistan’s foe Gwadar interface and open trade with Central Asia and the Middle East.

China has made significant investments in Gwadar and continues to do so in the name of trade protection, giving Beijing a foothold in the Indian Ocean area, where India has long enjoyed corporate influence.

In the run-up to Modi’s journey to Washington, in a surprise walk, Trump issued an executive order on February 6 instructing Secretary of State Marco Rubio to “rescind or change restrictions discounts” on Chabahar.

The order obviously aims to begin Trump’s past administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign on the Islamic Republic but will also push India’s vital strategic interests.

Trump and Modi exchange a kiss, but their ties are still strained. Image: X Screengrab

India’s efforts to expand its influence in Central Asia are at the heart of Chabahar, which is situated in southeast Iran, by avoiding Pakistan’s standard land-trapping and facilitating communication to Afghanistan and above.

The Port &amp, Maritime Organization of Iran and Indian Ports Global Limited ( IPGL ) signed a deal last year in Chabhar, under which IPGL agreed to invest about US$ 120 million. An additional$ 250 million in financing will bring the contract’s total value to$ 370 million, the two sides said last year.

According to an American government official who was quoted by Reuters, IPGL initially took over the port’s operations in 2018 and has since handled container traffic exceeding 90 000 Posting and large and general cargo exceeding 8.4 million tonnes.

A railroad and free trade zones are also included in the large project, which includes India having already invested billions of dollars and plenty of political capital.

The port is more than just a financial lifeline for India: it is a strategic asset that balances China’s growing influence in South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East with strengthening economic ties to a historically volatile neighboring region.

The inclusion of India in the International North-South Transport Corridor, which promotes trade between India, Iran, Russia, and other countries, reinforced its strategic significance for New Delhi. &nbsp,

Under the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, Iran agreed to curtail its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. However, the first Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the deal in 2018 and reimposed severe sanctions, though some were waived for Chabahar projects because of the port’s prior contribution to facilitating Afghanistan’s reconstruction while it was de facto under NATO control.

Just 72 kilometers apart, Chabahar and Gwadar are only 72 kilometers apart. Image: X

The waiver made it possible for India to carry on its port investments without incurring sanctions. Trump’s decision to modify or revoke these waivers, however, poses a risk to undermine both India’s strategic position in the region and the dynamics of the Quad security partnership.

The Quad, which includes Australia, Japan, India, and the US, was established to counterbalance China’s ascendancy in the Indo-Pacific, but has been rendered ineffective by India’s neutrality regarding the Ukraine conflict and its crucial role in helping Russia dodge Western sanctions on its energy exports.

Significantly, at a time when Trump is disengaging the US from various multilateral commitments, bodies and fora, Rubio met with Quad counterparts during the president’s first day in office and reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to the format and its goals. In this way, they suggested that India hold a new Quad summit this year. &nbsp,

On one level, the sanctions waiver move is a clear reaffirmation of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. It comes as Iran is rumored to have plotted to murder Trump, who has already voiced strong support for Israel, its archrival. Iran is being isolated and forced to engage in new negotiations on its nuclear program by the punitive sanctions policy.

The immediate goal may be that, but the wider effects of terminating the waivers could conflict with US strategic objectives in the area.

India’s reaction to the waiver decision, so far muted and not mentioned during Modi’s February 13 press conference with Trump in Washington, is still a wildcard. That may be because Modi’s emissaries are negotiating the waivers for its specific investments and activities in Chabahar from the inside out.

If those negotiations fail, New Delhi will likely react to what it perceives as unwarranted US interference in a crucial and important regional strategy.

India has long given its non-aligned autonomy precedence in its foreign policy, and New Delhi has placed a high value on the development of the port, particularly in light of its regional security concerns, such as those posed by Pakistan’s conflict, and China’s great power struggle.

Indeed, India might have to reevaluate its options as a result of the revocation of sanctions waivers. India might have to reconsider its long-term commitment to a project in which it has made a sizable investment, both diplomatically and financially, if the waivers are completely revoked without modification or compromise.

In turn, this could reduce India’s standing in the Central Asian region and undermine its ongoing cooperation with the US in light of its wider Indo-Pacific strategies, including balancing and checking China’s expansionist designs.

The Quad might be impacted by the waivers being revoked, too. By protecting trade routes and encouraging rules-based stability in the region, one of the Quad’s main goals is to create a free and open Indo-Pacific.

India’s strategic position in the Indian Ocean region, where the Chabahar Port is crucial, helps ensure India’s security and trade access in Central Asia, is underlined by its strategic positioning in that region.

By nipping India’s Chabahar ambitions, Trump risks torpedoing the Quad. The US may argue that reaffirming Iran’s sanctions policy is necessary to restrain its ability to exert power across the region, but the long-term cost of weakening India’s strategic position may outweigh any advantages in the short run.

The Quad’s success relies on maintaining a unified front against China’s growing assertiveness, and any discord within the partnership, especially between the US and India, would shake its cohesion at a crucial juncture. &nbsp,

Many in New Delhi believe that China will ultimately benefit from Trump’s de facto support of India’s role in Iran, Central Asia, and the Middle East as a whole.

Additionally, it will give Pakistan’s Gwadar port, which has been inactive for a while and where China has invested comparative amounts of billions, a comparative boost. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor ( CPEC ), part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, is a key counterpoint to India’s initiatives in the region.

At Gwadar Port, Pakistani naval personnel are positioned close to a container ship. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Aamir Qureshi

Trump’s decision to impose a ban on Chabahar thus runs the risk of erupting a string of cascading events that could ultimately reset the region’s balance of power to China’s and India’s favor.

A weaker Quad and strained US-Indian relations will be the immediate results of undermining India’s strategic interests. At a time when the US is supposedly pivoting from Europe to Asia in order to challenge China’s influence, the long-term outcome will be a more powerful, not less, China in Central and South Asia.

Trump’s decision to punish Iran has also negatively impacted a key partner in India, potentially putting the future cohesion his administration will ultimately need to effectively check and balance China across the wider Indo-Pacific and beyond.

The University of AJK is enrolling Haris Gul in an international relations program. He may be reached at [email protected].

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