Russia’s grievances can’t be ignored in Ukraine peace deal – Asia Times

New developments in the US presidential campaign have made the topic of how to end the conflict in Ukraine more important. According to reports, Donald Trump would soon demand that Ukraine join peace talks if he wins the November election, with a Republican presidential victory extremely good.

His selection of running-mate, JD Vance, an vocal opponent of US military aid to Ukraine, has given this a stronger chance.

44 % of Ukrainians want formal peace talks with Russia to start, up from 23 % in May 2023, according to a recent poll in Ukraine. But how would a really and reliable long-term harmony look like? Ukraine has made demands, including the complete withdrawal of Russian forces and the establishment of a tribunal to sue Russian war criminals.

These are highly affordable. However, it is equally crucial to comprehend Russian problems. Russia started the war, but understanding its justification is crucial to understanding why it took place and how it should end it later.

On the Traditional Unity of Russians and Ukrainians: An Essay allegedly written by Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin set out its grievances in 2021. If we pardon its denied historical statements, the remaining grievances are mainly rooted in traditional geopolitical issues involving contested territory, borders, and minorities. These regional, provincial and national-scale concerns are frequently encountered after the break-up of multi-ethnic civilizations such as the Soviet Union.

Putin’s article refers to “Ukrainian neo-Nazis”, and he has frequently said that the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine is a goal of the war. The claim that Ukraine is run by fascist is absurd is made up. However, Stepan Bandera and other Third Reich colleagues who were under the government’s control, have sparked anger in Russia and elsewhere.

The removal of Russian figures and their substitute with memorials dedicated to Ukrainian ultra-nationalists has also been incredibly controversial. Some west European states have found solutions to this problem of how the Communist era is remembered in public spaces.

A pending peace agreement could ease these tensions by allowing adult communities to choose how they want to tag open space and remember the past on a local level.

Speech restrictions

At the regional scale, a recurring problem in Putin’s writing is that Russian-speaking minority (especially in Ukraine’s eastern provinces ) have suffered bias under Kiev’s laws on speech and training.

Promoting Ukrainian at the price of majority languages, Putin argues, is difficult in a nation” that is very difficult in terms of its regional, national and language composition”.

Putin significantly exaggerates the danger to ethno-linguistic immigrants. However, concerns about discrimination against minorities in Ukraine have also been raised by non-partisan global organizations like the UN, OSCE, and the European Centre for Minority Issues.

Following independence, there has been a recurring issue of how to market the language and culture of a lot ethnic group while keeping cultural diversity in mind. There are many inventive way to solve it.

For instance, in the 19th century, the Danish-German fight over Schleswig-Holstein was seen as the traditional insoluble ethno-territorial debate. On both sides of the novel border, language immigrants on both sides of the border were vulnerable and unsatisfied as a result of the department of Schleswig between Germany and Denmark in a 1920 election. It was finally solved by a type of non-territorial freedom.

This resulted in the two says agreeing to respect the international boundary, but minority were also granted the right to use their own cultures for training, worship, and social life. In Ukraine, this type may be effectively modified.

Issue of boundaries

Suddenly, at the national level, Russia has disputed Ukraine’s boundaries and has illegally annexed lands. According to Puntin, these restrictions were “never seen as position edges” and had been “never manipulated by the Bolsheviks.”

The Soviet Union’s borders, like nearly any present state boundary, were in some ways artificial, according to historic scholarship. But that’s no reason to challenge them nowadays.

Russia has consistently recognized Ukraine’s limitations, most obviously in a 2003 convention. Since 1945, there have n’t been more than a dozen successful instances of boundary changes by force, and the UN ca n’t tolerate this precedent.

However, there are many different ways to adapt the either/or reasoning of state sovereignty to address these issues, such as the phrase” this property is either own or it” ( also known as” this land is either mine or yours ). One is the establishment of independent states, like the Baltic Sea’s land territories. After the First World War, they both became Scandinavian, having previously been Swedish.

Then a demilitarized, self-governing place, they fall under Scandinavian expert but govern their own domestic affairs. Eastern Ukraine, which Russia has fraudulently annexed, might have a similar solution.

Crimea, which has previously been closely associated with Russia, is likely to be another coming place. This could be resolved through “territorial leasing”, where one condition leases area to another.

For instance, Russia now leases its Baikonur storage facility from Kazakhstan. The president of the two nations elect the mind of the state’s administration, but Kazakhstan has sovereignty over the city and is subject to Russian rule. Ukraine was rent Crimea to Russia, with both state involved in its combined management.

The Russia-Ukraine war ca n’t be reduced to any single factor such as geography. A peace agreement will need to tackle issues like those involving war crimes, restitution, and the transfer of captives.

Additionally, new political arrangements must be in place to ensure Ukraine’s and Russia’s protection. A just and lasting harmony like this will be difficult to achieve because of past broken promises made by Russia to Ukraine and the bitter legacy of its naked brutality.

However, geographic problems will need to be addressed as stepping stones in the direction of a negotiation. The good news is that there are plenty of examples of successful situations that demonstrate how to accomplish this.

Nick Megoran is Professor of Political Geography, Newcastle University

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Trump-Vance would focus more on China than Russia – Asia Times

In the national election, Donald Trump’s selection of Ohio lawmaker J D Vance as his running mate rekindled concerns of American withdrawal. Vince is renowned for opposing support to Ukraine and for placing an almost singular emphasis on China as the United States ‘ defining security issue.

Vance’s appointment as his evil president may help to shift US foreign and security policy away from the Euro-Atlantic region to the Indo-Pacific if Trump wins in November. And given Vance’s good aspirations for the president in a post-Trump time, this will have significant effects after a Trump administration.

By choosing Vance, Trump plans to switch in his company of American populism. It’s a decision that indicates that the former president now has total control over the Democratic party and its future way. More than anything else, Vance’s nomination as running partner signals the end of the post-1945 isolationist US foreign policy discussion.

Therefore, American officials in Europe are right to be concerned about how much the US is still committed to protecting Europe. Vance officially told his German counterparts that he is “much more engaged in some of the problems in East Asia right now than I am in Europe” at the Munich safety meeting in February 2024.

For Vance, the alternative is a zero-sum activity: arms for Ukraine would be much sent to Taiwan. He argued in a withering op-ed in the New York Times in April 2024 that Washington may start negotiations with Russia and encourage Kiev to abandon its aim of granting Ukraine total independence in the internationally recognized territories of 1991.

Vladimir Putin, the chairman of Russia, agrees with Trump on this point. Unsurprisingly, Russia’s foreign secretary, Sergey Lavrov, promptly welcomed Trump’s find of Vance as his running mate.

There is little chance that the Western friends would bridge this gap if America decided to stop supporting Ukraine. Ukraine would be unable to withstand the continuous Russian assault without American military technology and the intellect and communication network that only the US can offer.

Germany intends to reduce its military support for Kiev from the 8 billion dollars ( US$ 8.7 billion ) provided in 2024 despite Western fears about a possible change in US help aside from Ukraine in the event of a Trump victory in November.

This is made up for by an agreement reached between the G7 countries at their summit in Italy in June 2024 that uses$ 3 billion in interest accrued from frozen Russia assets as leverage to support a$ 50 billion loan to Ukraine.

The German plan to cut diplomatic help to Ukraine sends the politically more offensive message that Kiev’s essential Western allies are unlikely to move in to any US-led coalition.

Small wonder, then, that yet Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, appears to know the writing on the wall. He has then stated that conversations with Russia may be about to end.

Europe exposed

The most significant and urgent menace to European security is obviously the Soviet aggression against Ukraine. However, a negotiated resolution may result in a negligible improvement of European security in the long run.

Putin’s Russia has proven to be an unreliable dialogue partner when, as the decline of the 2014 and 2015 Minsk peace agreements clearly demonstrates. Russia chose not to pursue the path that offered peace and stability. There is no proof that any new agreement reached with Putin would perform any better.

Additionally, any resolution with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine is likely to stifle the US’s fear of leaving Europe. A Trump-led administration in Washington would feel even more motivated to finish its security transition to the Indo-Pacific and concentrate solely on China now that the conflict with Ukraine has come to an undeniably temporary conclusion.

This is a chance for ascension Trump-aligned political parties in Europe to support a reduction in defense budgets and an appeasement of Russia, according to experts on both the extreme right and extreme left of the political spectrum. Wining over Russia to the American side is a long-term strategic goal in a White House with a China-focused outlook on the world.

Yet, this would be a serious folly, endangering European security in the long term. It would also give a lacked confidence in the Russian leadership. Additionally, it would disregard China’s significance for European security.

A complete US pivot to the Indo-Pacific is not in China’s interest. Therefore, using Russia as a proxies to stoke hostility in the Euro-Atlantic theater would seem logical. Apart from that, this would deteriorate any chances that Europe might offer any assistance to the US in the Indo-Pacific.

Additionally, it undervalues how much of the US and Europe share a common security issue with Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing’s efforts to create a military, political, and economic counterweight to the US and Europe may still be in their early stages, but they are getting more focused.

This was clearly demonstrated at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in early July 2024, where Russia and China are active members.

So, the issue with European security is not primarily Trump and Vance’s desire to shift their attention away from Russia to China. What does this mean for the transatlantic security community, which was one of the fundamental pillars of international security in the wake of NATO’s founding in 1949, that had its roots in the 1941 Atlantic Charter.

Weakening this transatlantic link will unavoidably strengthen a developing Sino-Russian Eurasian alliance. Therefore, Europe will face a lot of difficulties if the US leaves its traditional role as the guarantor of European security. This includes how much money is being prepared to spend on defense for itself, as well as how the organization responds to these new realities tactically.

In the University of Birmingham’s Department of Political Science and International Studies, Professors David Hastings Dunn and Stefan Wolff are Professors of International Security and David Hastings Dunn is Professor of International Politics.

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China’s electronic warfare surge shocks US in South China Sea – Asia Times

As recently demonstrated by a recent clash between US and Chinese forces, China’s cutting-edge electronic warfare ( EW ) capabilities are altering the balance of power in the South China Sea.

This month, the South China Morning Post (SCMP ) reported on China’s enhanced EW capabilities by shedding light on a December 2023 incident between a US EA-18 Growler carrier-based EW aircraft and China’s Type 055 cruiser Nanchang in the contested South China Sea.

SCMP says that in December 2023, the US Navy dismissed William Coulter, chief of US Electronic Attack Squadron 136 (VAQ-136), stationed on the USS Carl Vinson, citing a reduction of confidence in his ability to control.

The report says that a month later, the People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) recognized the Nanchang’s crew for their actions against a US carrier fleet. It also notes that Chinese internet highlighted an face involving an EA-18G, believed to be from Coulter’s regiment, and the Nanchang ship.

The statement mentions that PLA researchers recently revealed in a Radar &amp, ECM blog content that the Nanchang had an advantage over the EA-18G’s jamming abilities thanks to AI-enhanced radar.

It claims that the EA-18G, manufactured by Boeing, has been upgraded since 2021 for future warfare but faces new challenges from the PLA–Navy’s ( PLA-N) integrated radar systems and communication strategies.

SCMP notes that these improvements allow PLA-N ships to form a “kill web” to store the EA-18G’s problems. Additionally, it claims that the Nanchang’s reported strategic strategies and successful relationship with US troops show a change in the PLA-N’s EW strategy.

After Nancy Pelosi, then-US Speaker of the House of Representatives ,’s contentious August 2022 attend to Taiwan, significantly improved Chinese EW features may have enabled a miracle.

Despite using Model 055 ships and J-16D EW plane, SCMP pointed out that the PLA failed to follow and monitor the US Air Force carry planes carrying Pelosi during her visit. According to the source, Pelosi’s escorting aircraft force’s electric disturbance caused almost all of the PLA’s EW technology to malfunction.

John Tkacik, a journalist for the Taipei Times in August 2022, claims that the USS Tripoli and the USS Ronald Reagan ship strike group supported the launch of a large army of US F-15s that were stationed in the Philippine Sea.

China may include quickly improved its EW features from that perspective by investing in new technology and placing them in a more substantial remove net made of dynamic and non-kinetic elements.

In February of this year, SCMP reported that Chinese scientists have created a new course of EW gear that is officially quickly detect, convey, and suppress enemy signals.

According to SCMP, the novel system enables the PLA to easily monitor signals entering the gigahertz zone, which includes frequencies used by amateur radio and actually Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites.

It points out that the technology includes cutting-edge AI integration and signal processing chips, improving China’s ability to combat enemy interference and keep communication flow.

However, SCMP claims that in encounters with US Navy ships with EW exercise, China has used electromagnetic-emitting products, including high-power phased range radars, to switch on to various targets including US carrier-based plane.

China may already be able to integrate EW into its multi-domain operations, along with other dynamic and non-kinetic capabilities, in a difficult kill web, by developing new technology.

A remove website is defined as numerous, connected nodes that increase the number and endurance of probable kill chains in a May 2023 article for the Mitchell Institute. The steps involved in identifying and removing particular targets are called a shoot chain.

According to Penney, kill webs provide a more flexible and less repetitive system, making it harder for adversaries to fight, in contrast to straight remove chains, which are easier to pin and destroy.

Asia Times noted in April 2024 that the rebranding of China’s PLA Strategic Support Force ( PLA-SSF ) into the PLA-Information Support Force ( PLA-ISF ) highlights China’s strategic shift towards technology-driven “intelligentized warfare”.

In China’s multi-domain operational strategy against potential adversaries like the US and its allies, emerging AI, quantum, and other technologies are being integrated into the PLA-ISF. The rebranding reflects a shift in Chinese military doctrine that includes EW, cyber operations, and signals intelligence ( SIGINT ), moving from “informationized wars” to “intelligentized warfare.”

EW is also a key component of China’s Multi-Domain Precision Warfare ( MDPW) concept, which leverages AI and big data to identify and exploit weaknesses in US operational systems.

By physically attacking information nodes like aircraft and satellites and by using EW and cyberattacks, China’s MDPW aims to demolish and destroy US kill chains.

Near-peer rivals like China and Russia may be bridging the gap, despite the fact that the US arguably still holds the EW title.

According to a primer on defense for the US Congressional Research Service ( CRS ) in November 2022, the National Defense Strategy Commission stated that the US is losing its” EW edge,” which limits its ability to conduct operations against capable adversaries.

Army Technology reported in May 2024 that the US spent US$ 5 billion on EW capabilities in 2024, accounting for 45 % of global EW spending from 2021-2023, compared to just 14 % by Russia and 13 % by China.

However, Army Technology says that the US ‘ dominant position in the EW market is being challenged, as Russia, China and India’s share is projected to increase by the next decade.

The report cites the alleged US complacency that Russia has used over the past 20 years to fuel EW strategies that have focused on counterinsurgency versus non-state actors.

It notes that in Ukraine, Russia has used EW to disrupt adversary battlefield networks, support conventional assault forces through SIGINT and jamming attacks, and secure captured territory against counterattacks. &nbsp,

Additionally, the source mentions that Russia has used EW to disrupt regional civilian services like GPS and telecoms.

Army Technology also mentions that China has used EW in ways that are similar to those of Russia and has equated electromagnetic dominance with information dominance. In addition to shipborne EW equipment, China claims to have installed these items and more in its occupied features in the South China Sea.

In line with that, Matthew Funaiole and other writers highlight in a December 2021 CSIS article the expansion of China’s facilities on Hainan Island, Subi Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef, which now includes satellite tracking, communication platforms, and systems potentially used in EW and SIGINT.

Funaiole and others point out that these developments are intended to strengthen the PLA’s ability to operate in contested electronic and cyberspace environments.

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Trump didn’t say he wouldn’t defend Taiwan – Asia Times

Donald Trump’s July 17&nbsp, Bloomberg interview&nbsp, prompted headlines&nbsp, to the influence that” the US do not protect Taiwan from a Chinese invasion under his presidency”, as the&nbsp, Daily Telegraph complained.

He claimed that there is no need for China to invade Taiwan, which is within the reach of as much Foreign artillery as the island cares to fire at it. &nbsp, The former president and pioneer for the November US election&nbsp, spoke popular sense, as opposed to the face-saving subterfuge of US defence experts – including many from the Trump station.

The US has the wrong kind of military to fight a land-based power with the most advanced mass production capability in the world, which is capable of producing an unsustainable number of anti-ship missiles and drones, and US defense analysts have the unenviable task of dissecting thirty years ‘ worth of mistakes.

Trump, by comparison, ignores the authorities and notes the clear. &nbsp,

” Taiwan is 9, 500 yards away. It’s 68 kilometers away from China. A little benefit, and China’s a large piece of land, they could only destroy it. They do n’t even need to – I mean, they can literally just send shells. Now they do n’t want to do that because they do n’t want to lose all those chip plants”, Trump said. &nbsp,

Taiwan is 100 yards from the Chinese mainland, which is roughly the equivalent of 20 miles of ordnance shell range, but China has the weapons to completely destroy the area if it so chooses. It wo n’t, as Trump suggested, not only because it does not want to destroy the Taiwanese fabrication plants that make 90 % of the world’s advanced chips, but because it does not want to kill Taiwanese citizens, whom it considers Chinese nationals.

In the event of a crisis, for instance, a shift towards conventional independence by Taiwan, China would siege the island. The beach imports all of its power, largely natural oil, and has about three days of storage capacity. The lights on Taiwan would go out in less than a fortnight if China just revealed to shipping companies that it intends to drop any LNG ship approaching the island.

China is n’t terrible enough to give landing craft across 100 miles of open sea. British defence experts such as the&nbsp, Center for a New American Security&nbsp, and the&nbsp, Center for Strategic and International Studies stage “war games” about a potential Chinese invasion&nbsp, to conceal the loss of US protection strategy.

No military force 6, 000 miles from home can meet the land-based power of a local gaze attack. The results may resemble the Japanese fleet’s death at the 1905 Battle of Tsushima Strait in the improbable event of a&nbsp, full-fledged war between China and the US Navy.

The U.S. war is well-versed in this and has explained why in many publications.

Major Christopher J. Mihal, a member of the PLA Rocket Force, stated in a US Army journal in 2021 that” the typical arm of the PLARF is the largest ground-based missile force in the world, with over 2,200 typically armed nuclear and cruise missiles and with enough anti-ship missiles to attack every US surface combatant ship in the South China Sea with enough power to overthrow each ship’s weapon defence.”

The Pentagon’s 2023 assessment of the People’s Liberation Army reported: &nbsp,

The PLARF’s conventionally-armed CSS-5 Mod 5 ( DF-21D ) ASBM variant gives the PLA the capability to conduct long-range precision strikes against ships, including aircraft carriers, out to the Western Pacific from mainland China. The DF-21D is reported to be capable of quickly reloading in the field and has a range of more than 1,500 kilometers.

The PLARF continues to grow its inventory of DF-26 IRBMs, which it first revealed in 2015 and fielded in 2016. The multi-role&nbsp, DF-26 is designed to rapidly swap conventional and nuclear warheads and is capable of conducting precision land-attack and anti-ship strikes in the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the SCS from mainland China. The PRC launched anti-ship ballistic missiles into the SCS in 2020 against a moving target.

The PLARF is developing and testing a number of novel theater-range missiles, as well as developing capabilities and strategies to combat hostile BMD systems. The DF-17 passed several tests successfully and is deployed operationally. A PRC-based military expert stated in 2020 that the DF-17’s primary objective was to attack foreign military installations and fleets in the Western Pacific.

China claims to have &nbsp, automated factories&nbsp, that can manufacture 1, 000 cruise missile motors a day. It can also produce as many anti-ship drones of the kind that the Houthis effectively use against US ships in the Red Sea. &nbsp, These are easy to shoot down with modern anti-missile systems, but a US destroyer can carry only 100 interceptors in its hold. China has the freedom to fire as many projectiles from its land. &nbsp, China also has about 60 silent diesel-electric submarines and about 1, 000 4th – and 5th-generation aircraft.

The US built the wrong kind of military, something that no Pentagon-funded think tank or prospective office-seeker wants to admit. Donald Trump&nbsp, by contrast stated the obvious: China’s enormous size and proximity to Taiwan constitute an overwhelming, insuperable&nbsp, advantage. Surface ships, moreover, are sitting ducks for modern missiles, just as the lumbering battleships of 1940 were vulnerable to dive bombers and torpedo planes. &nbsp,

Battleships were the most important line item in the defense budget of every major power until the eve of World War II, when the situation is reminiscent of today’s situation. Victor Davis Hanson makes the observation in The Second World Wars that Germany and Japan erred by using battleships rather than carriers, and that this most likely cost them the war. After Japanese bombers sunk four US battleships at Pearl Harbor and&nbsp, Britain’s Repulse and Prince of Wales near&nbsp, Singapore in December 1941, no navy&nbsp, started work on&nbsp, a battleship again. &nbsp,

China’s home-theater advantage, combined with its missile and drone advantage, can outnumber it regardless of how much of its current capabilities are given to East Asia by the United States. That makes nonsense out of the now-popular meme of “prioritizing Asia” over Ukraine, a theme promoted by a former junior Pentagon official, Elbridge Colby, reportedly under consideration for a senior national security post in&nbsp, a new Trump Administration.

There has never been a clear explanation of what the United States might prioritize, perhaps 155mm howitzers and Patriot air defense systems, and how this might aid in a flurry of Chinese missiles. The US should aim for&nbsp,” a balance of power that is consistent with our reasonable differences” ,&nbsp, maintaining the status quo over Taiwan, &nbsp, Colby said in a recent&nbsp, interview. &nbsp,

Translated into real-world circumstances, that means China will&nbsp, let&nbsp, the United States pretend to be a Pacific power, and pretend to threaten an invasion of Taiwan while Taiwan pretends to defend itself. &nbsp, Taiwan wo n’t provoke China by promoting sovereignty, and all sides will save face. &nbsp, Face-saving flummery of this sort might keep the peace, but it would depend not on a balance of power, but rather on Chinese forbearance.

Using a million-dollar interceptor to shoot down a$ 5, 000 drone is a losing proposition. The cost of conventional missile defense is prohibitive even if America could produce enough interceptors to keep up with China’s missile production and US ships could carry enough of them to thwart Chinese attacks.

Directed-energy weapons, including laser and microwave devices, have the potential to destroy projectiles and drones cheaply, but&nbsp, prototypes of such&nbsp, devices&nbsp, can only stop slow-moving drones. It’s difficult to stop a laser from hitting a ballistic before it burns a hole in it, and directed-energy weapons would be necessary to use them effectively against modern missiles.

The Pentagon’s 2025 budget includes just$ 780 million for directed-energy weapons research, less than the cost of eight F35 fighters.

Drone swarms also have the potential to screen against missile attacks, but&nbsp, this technology also faces formidable obstacles. Drones have a short range and would have to&nbsp, be launched from a platform less vulnerable than surface ships, for example, from a submarine. In the last five years, the US has only constructed six submarines.

Trump has spoken often of building a missile shield for the American homeland, in emulation of Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative. That is the right course of action, but it would necessitate a radical shift in defense priorities and a radical change in the US military. &nbsp,

Trump also made a hint in the Bloomberg interview that the prospect of significant tariffs on Chinese exports to the US is a negotiating stance, supported by experts like former Special Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and economist Peter Navarro.

Tariffs do” two things”, Trump said. &nbsp, “Economically, it’s great. And man, is it good for negotiation? I’ve had guys, I’ve had countries, that were potentially extremely hostile coming to me and say,’ Sir, please stop with the tariffs. Stop.’ They would do anything. Nothing to do with economic, they would do—you know, we have more than economic, we have other things like let’s not go to war. Or I do n’t want you to go into war in another place”.

Trump also reiterated his&nbsp, April invitation&nbsp, to Chinese car companies to build plants in the United States.

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Two-thirds of Dems want Biden out of the race now – Asia Times

The gaps under US President Joe Biden’s legs are growing larger.

While the assassination attempt on past president Donald Trump appeared to ease some of the stress on Biden, the tale of his validity as both president and member continues to feed on itself.

The 81-year-old president has been plagued by unrelenting inquiries about whether he should run for a second word as the Democratic candidate since his fatal discussion functionality against Trump on June 27.

And this week, the force has been mounting. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, one of the most mature members of the party, “forcefully made the case” for Biden to step aside in a one-on-one talk, according to reports. ( Schumer’s spokesperson has called the reporting “idle speculation”. ) Another major Democrat, Adam Schiff, has formally called for him to enter the race, as well.

As if things could n’t get any worse, the White House announced that the president has Covid.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to watch.

Biden and his team must realize that there is no way for him to quell his worries about his decline simply because he ca n’t get any younger. Because he is too old, he never demonstrate that he is not very old.

As like, there is no great way for Biden and his plan to approach the problem – it is, essentially, insoluble. And it’s difficult to argue that the president’s efforts to convince the electorate that he’s still a viable candidate had simply exacerbated things.

A growing sense of betrayal

Biden and his team had attributed a warm and jet lag from an earlier argument to their performance in the debate. However, if a leader is only affected by a warm and jet lag, concerns will be raised about his ability to lead for the rest of the country, not just now but over the next four decades.

The presidency of the United States is unquestionably the most difficult job in the world. Whether or not they do it quite or not, the individual is expected to be able to persevere when they are exhausted and ill.

Maybe all of this would have been ultimately surmountable, though, if Biden’s social attractiveness– as opposed to his personal one – had any traction.

Over the last several months, however, Biden’s information appears to have degenerated into just pointing out that he is not Trump. The main thrust of his campaign presently appears to be a bad one: to defeat Trump.

Well, beating Trump is essential to Democrats. However, Biden appears to have lost the ability to persuade American that he can stop the growing divisions that however afflict the US and cause some to fear it is splintering. Beyond a further briefing in a much longer traditional crisis, it is unclear what Biden’s future plans are or what he is offering.

This was visible at Biden’s “big child” press conference at the end of the NATO Summit in Washington. Biden spoke in depth and at length about foreign policy, which he and his followers have long regarded as one of his greatest strengths. However, his perspective on the responsibility of the United States in the world was unclear and contained some deceptive remarks and errors.

His remarks on Israel, in particular, highlighted a far deeper trouble on the political horizon. A day after the media event, The New York Times published a video clip of electors explaining they never vote for Biden because of his government’s aid of Israel’s war in Gaza.

To these voters and people, it is hard to overestimate the level of Biden’s treachery, both political and personal.

In 2020, Biden’s effective angle to the American people centred on his own kindness, his capacity to see the anguish of other people, really feel and promote it, and then to work to reduce it. He promised to hear and act as a millennial gate. He has done both.

His assistance among Democratic electors is waning as a result. In fact, two-thirds of Democrats then think he should step down from the race, according to a new poll released this week.

A celebration generally afraid of division

Succession preparing should be a vital part of any government’s job. And still Trump – the oldest sitting president in American history – has no clear successor, not even his own evil leader, Kamala Harris. And no one else in the Democratic Party has any power to take the place of him until and unless he steps down.
A party who is n’t good at making them has to make risk calculations.

For years, Democrats have been scarred by the inherited “lessons” of the 1968 disputed agreement. The group members had a stormy meeting to choose a candidate for the 2016 presidential vote, which revealed serious divisions over the Vietnam War. The Democratic candidate, Hubert Humphrey, went on to lose the election to Richard Nixon.

Since then, Liberals have been very afraid of public issue. So it is entirely possible that Democrats will continue to support Biden in this year’s vote until November.

But, given the stakes, they may also consider – either individually or collectively – that the danger Biden poses for “down-ballot” tribes ( those Democrats running for the House and Senate ) may outweigh the risk of ditching him so late in the campaign.

For some, this will be a question of personal danger to political occupations, for some, it is a problem of small-“d” political life. If Trump defeats Biden, it is widely believed that it is crucial to stifling the Democrats ‘ anti-democratic agenda.

If more prominent Democrats continue to put strain on Biden, which seems likely, he may be persuaded to move off of his own accord in favor of Harris or someone else. Biden is, if nothing else, obedient to his group. This might give you more time to pick a new member and rebrand the plan.

But American politicians is usually wildly unpredictable. There is a very real chance that a loop switch will pop up on the horizon. A candidate that no one anticipated may join the party, Harris might step up, or a sudden altercation ( such as Trump’s attempted assassination ) could happen.

The Democratic Party’s current crisis was totally unnecessary and foreseeable. But nothing is obvious.

Emma Shortis is an alternative senior colleague in the School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University.

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Chinese underworld takeover of US illicit pot trade – Asia Times

This content was first published by ProPublica, a Pulitzer Prize-winning analytical newspaper, along with The Frontier.

On the morning of April 12, the farmhand woke up struggling to breathe and dizzy with illness.

Jiaai Zeng had spent the previous month daily working at a weed farm in Oklahoma that was run by other Chinese refugees. The work was terrible, the 57-year-old had told friends in New York. He said his leaders made him work up to 15 days a day in the blast-furnace warmth of a house. He planned to go back to New York that night for medical care because he was still feeling bad after a trip to the dentist.

At 9: 38 am, Zeng sent an audio message to a niece in Manhattan’s Chinatown. He asked her to buy a case of fruits for when he arrived in an agonized voice.

” I do n’t want to eat anything”, he said, speaking a dialect of Fujian province. ” I just want to take a look at fruits and see if I’ll have an appetite”.

When three farm-related drivers drove Zeng to a local doctor about an hour later, he was unconscious and without pulse. They dropped him away and left in a hurry while doctors were trying to revive him, according to a medical record.

Zeng was dying by 11:05 am.

” This death is not normal”, his brother, Westin Zeng, said in an interview with ProPublica and The Frontier. ” He lives that for a little bit over 30 time: from a good person to a dying man. To me, it does n’t make sense. In my mind, there’s a natural link from his job to his condition, and from his condition to how they handle that, and a connection to his death”.

The tens of thousands of Chinese immigrants who have secretly become the foundation of many US cannabis businesses are exposed by the farmworker’s tale, which provides a view into the terrible and frequently harsh conditions they endure.

” It is one of the most terrible sections of what we see in this business”, said Donnie Anderson, the chairman of the Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics, who met with Zeng’s family and ordered an investigation.

Cannabis fields have boomed in claims that have passed medical and recreational marijuana laws. However, politicians did n’t create corresponding regulations to protect personnel when Oklahoma’s voters approved a legislation allowing the production of medical marijuana in 2018. Oklahoma’s generally poor workers protection system leaves the protection of workers mostly to the federal government. Because cannabis is prohibited on a regional level, the US Department of Labor has tighter control.

As a result, employees who are already isolated by language and culture have found themselves generally at the mercy of their companies – usually criminals who rely on Chinese immigrant workers. As ProPublica and The Frontier have reported, Chinese cartels — some with feared relations to the Chinese government — have taken advantage of state-level legislation to occupy a global black market for pot.

YouTube video

embedded content ]

During raids, inspections and investigations at more than a thousand farms over the past five years, Oklahoma law enforcement officers, fire marshals, federal labor inspectors and other officials have encountered a litany of abuses: Bosses

  • threaten and intimidate workers,
  • sexually assault them,
  • steal their wages,
  • confiscate their identification cards,
  • restrict their movements and
  • Use noxious chemicals and pesticides to force them to work in dangerous heat.

Wrongdoing is rampant at many Chinese-owned farms, where immigrants are often so fearful of their employers and the authorities that they do not cooperate with investigations, according to law enforcement officials, court cases, human rights advocates and workers.

The mistreatment and squalid conditions are the hallmarks of human trafficking, said Craig Williams, the chief agent of the marijuana and human trafficking sections of the Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics.

” It’s difficult to describe what it’s like until you’re standing there, looking at the people, looking at the environment, smelling the environment, and seeing what they’re living in,” Williams said. ” Your heart goes out to them like,’ This is just wrong.'”

While issues are particularly severe in Oklahoma, studies and media reports have documented similar risks for laborers across the country, many of whom are recent arrivals who have crossed the Mexican border illegally. Exploitation of Chinese immigrants pervades the marijuana underworld from California to New Mexico to Maine, according to interviews and court cases.

Overseas as well, authorities have found patterns of mistreatment at Chinese-run marijuana sites from Chile to Ireland.

A police official in Spain, a center for illegal marijuana cultivation in Europe, said,” These are people living in a situation of semi-slavery,” who spoke on the condition of anonymity for safety. ” They are locked up 24 hours a day. They are unsure of the nation they reside in. They do n’t have contact with the outside world”.

During raids in 2021 on cannabis plantations hidden in warehouses near Barcelona, Spain, police freed 10 immigrants from Fujian whom gangsters had forced to work to pay off smuggling debts of up to$ 35, 000. The drug traffickers forced the workers to sleep on mattresses on the floor and locked them in the filthy, windowless buildings. Some of the victims spent up to a year in captivity, police said.

Everyone has their own unique story, but the truth is that they have not escaped China’s darkness, according to Ju Ma, a Chinese human rights advocate who runs a migrant shelter in New York to assist marijuana users.

In the Zeng case, the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration and the Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics are investigating. The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner recently concluded that the cause of the farmworker’s death was pneumonia.

According to Westin Zeng,” they are treating the workers like slaves because they are making a lot of money in the marijuana industry.” ” I want to find out everything that happened and get justice for my family”.

The farm’s owners have not been charged with a crime in relation to the case. Jeffrey Box, a lawyer for one of them, rejected the Zeng family’s allegations that neglect and harsh working conditions played roles in the farmworker’s death.

Official data and reports on labor in the marijuana industry are sparse, and Chinese workers rarely talk about their experiences. ProPublica and The Frontier spoke with a number of current and former law enforcement officials from the United States and abroad, as well as with representatives from farmworkers, human rights advocates, lawyers, and other organizations. Reporters also reviewed court documents, medical files, government reports and social media posts in English, Chinese and Spanish.

The reporting exposes a desperate saga that is largely invisible to the US public. Zeng’s case is rare because his family has spoken out. Many Chinese immigrants enter the nation’s marijuana industry hoping to plant the seeds of new lives, but they end up suffering in silence.

No one will report anything if they go missing, Williams said. ” I sincerely wonder how many people are buried on illegal marijuana grows”.

The journey

Zeng was born in a village in Yongtai County, Fujian. His nephew remembers him departing at dawn, to cultivate rice and plum trees, and returning after dark.

Westin Zeng, a 32-year-old business consultant in New York, said,” He carried four if people were carrying two baskets of stuff.”

A father of two, Zeng also did itinerant manual labor in Shanghai and other cities to support his family, including his father and a grandson who are both disabled. According to an account he later wrote for a US immigration court, he converted to Christianity ( his US relatives are Christians ) and was so threatened by police in his hometown. At the same time, the pandemic was worsening China’s economic woes and the hardships of its working people.

Jiaai Zeng. Photo courtesy of his family

Zeng decided to leave. His US relatives lent him about$ 65,000 as compensation for the smuggler’s fees. The money included a payoff to expedite issuance of a passport by Chinese officials in Fujian, a coastal province whose longtime smuggling underworld intertwines with official corruption.

Zeng traveled via Bolivia and Mexico, climbing the border fence into San Diego in December 2022. He requested political asylum after Border Patrol agents detained him, and he was granted his release.

He arrived during a multiyear surge of immigration from China. Around 31, 000 Chinese nationals were apprehended by the U.S. Border Patrol in the first eight months of the 2024 fiscal year. That’s over 15 times more than the entire 2019 fiscal year.

Some Chinese border-crossers find work in marijuana operations after they arrive. Other people are brought across the globe specifically to work in the cannabis industry.

A former senior Drug Enforcement Administration official said the agency has learned about these clandestine labor pipelines from informants and a jailed high-level human trafficker and money launderer.

The phrase” We need more manpower for all these marijuana farms” was spread by Christopher Urben, who is currently the managing director of the global investigations firm Nardello &amp, Co.” The same networks are involved in weed, money laundering, and human smuggling,” Urben said.

Blackwell

When Zeng reached New York in early 2023, he gave thanks at a Fujianese church in Chinatown and became a regular worshipper.

” He was surprised how much people were willing to support him”, Westin Zeng said. He was truly moved. He told my father it’s totally different here”.

This New York church’s Zeng became a regular visitor. Photo: Sebastian Rotella, Pro-Publica

Zeng first worked at a restaurant and then, at the suggestion of a cousin employed in the marijuana industry in Oklahoma, spent a month last summer working at a marijuana farm there. According to his family, he had no complaints about the experience. He saved money to send to family in China and to pay off debts incurred by his overseas journey.

Zeng, who had just received Medicaid insurance coverage, had a medical checkup in New York in early March that, according to the doctor who examined him, his medical records, and his family.

On March 7, Zeng returned to Oklahoma to work at a farm in the small town of Blackwell, near the Kansas state line.

Photos and public records show the 65-acre lot had six greenhouses and nine indoor grow houses. The farm had about 13 workers, according to Zeng’s family. The metal fence displayed signs depicting a pistol above the warning” Lawful Concealed Carry Permitted on Premises”.

According to his family, Zeng made about$ 4,500 per month for mowing plants, spreading fertilizer, and removing pests. His shift began at 7 am and lasted as late as 10 pm, with no days off. He slept in a cubicle in a partitioned room in the red-roofed main house.

Zeng sounded unhappy when he called family members. Although his bosses and co-workers were also Fujianese, they mistreated him because they were from another county with a different dialect, he told his relatives. He informed them that the workers were quitting because of the fast-paced pace and that the plastic-covered, dome-shaped greenhouses were incredibly hot.

” He was complaining to my aunt that he had to work almost naked because it was too hot in there”, Westin Zeng said. ” The only way to cool down was to spray himself with water”.

According to Williams, researchers have found that some farms had temperatures exceeding 120 degrees. During raids, agents routinely cut the sides out of the greenhouses to dissipate the heat and fumes from chemicals. Agents wear oxygen monitors because farmers use CO2 to promote plant growth, a practice that reduces oxygen levels without agents or laborers realizing it.

” I worry about our agents ‘ health all the time”, Williams said. ” And those workers are living in it”.

According to government and academic research, heat and humidity in greenhouses can encourage bacterial growth and lead to heat stress, and chemicals, gases, and other marijuana-farm chemicals can cause conditions ranging from allergies to fatal asthma. Other research shows that extended time in excess heat can cause human organs to shut down.

Another danger is caused by fires and explosions. And many farmers use toxic pesticides smuggled from China or across the Mexican border that have made workers sick in California, officials said.

The extent of such hazards at the Blackwell farm is not clear. According to his family, Zeng told his family that he occasionally wore a mask because it odors like marijuana and chemicals.

Box, the lawyer representing an owner of the farm, disputed the family’s allegations about extreme heat and other conditions at the farm.

This farm in Blackwell, Oklahoma, was where Zeng worked. Photo: Garrett Yalch, The Frontier

Around April 9, Zeng fell ill. On April 10, a farm worker took him to a doctor in Oklahoma City. The doctor diagnosed cystitis and a urinary tract infection — conditions that research shows can be exacerbated by heat stress— and prescribed an antibiotic, according to medical records and the relatives. ( The doctor declined to comment. )

That night, Zeng talked to his family about flying back to New York, where his insurance would help cover further treatment.

” I want to give it a few days, wait until I get better, then leave”, he said in an audio message.

Despite receiving the antibiotic, his condition continued to decline. His bosses bought him a plane ticket to New York for the afternoon of April 12, his family said. He sent his cousin the audio message that morning.

” You can hear he was dying”, Westin Zeng said.

At 10: 35 a. m., an hour after Zeng sent the message, a minivan pulled up to the emergency room at Stillwater Medical Center-Blackwell. Nurses discovered Zeng lying in a blanket and slumped down. They began CPR, put him on a stretcher and rushed him inside, according to the hospital report.

According to the report, the woman and the two men who brought him from the farm claimed they could not communicate in English and that nothing “aside from the patient’s name and birthdate” had been provided.

Using a Mandarin-speaking phone interpreter, the nurses got a few answers from the woman, who identified herself only as Stella. She “was not very forthcoming” and asked several times when she could leave, the report says. According to the report, she denied knowing Zeng, but that he had been seen by a doctor, had been sick for two or three days, and had worked at a marijuana farm.

Stella “left with the other two males”, the report says. “CPR continued”

Doctors pronounced Zeng dead a half hour after his arrival. Tests revealed he had sepsis and pneumonia, the report says. A hospital spokesman declined to comment.

‘ Selling hope ‘

Zeng passed away in a time when Oklahoma is confronting the perils of its march toward the marijuana frontier.

In 2018, voters passed the ballot petition that legalized medical marijuana with 56 % of the vote. The petition written by citizens included virtually no regulations. The state Legislature passed a number of laws the following year that protected the right of consumers to access medical marijuana, but they neglected the health and safety of marijuana workers.

At the peak of the billion-dollar marijuana boom in 2022, the state had almost 10, 000 cannabis farms, which have an estimated average workforce of 15 to 20 employees per site. Authorities have been able to reduce the number of farms despite a crackdown on black market marijuana trafficking because of it. However, they still encounter abusive, qualid, and unsafe workplaces.

Problems are endemic at Chinese-owned farms engaged in illicit activity, officials said. Workers often tell investigators that their bosses promised to pay them at harvest, but that the bosses then claimed the harvest was n’t big enough.

According to law enforcement officials and workers, owners occasionally offer new hires a potential cut of the profits and even encourage them to put their hard-earned savings into the endeavors before taking their money, according to owners.

” We see promised pay that has n’t been delivered on”, Williams said,” – very frequently now. They believe that working in a terrible environment for a while will pay off in the long run. They do n’t realize they’re working on an illegal grow. And that the work they’ve done, they’re never going to get paid for anyway. The bosses are, in some ways,” selling hope.”

In a rare workplace enforcement case in 2021, the Oklahoma Department of Labor judged that four Chinese employees were owed a combined total of nearly$ 57, 000 in unpaid wages and damages after investigators found they were not paid for months of intense physical labor at a marijuana farm in southern Oklahoma.

Through an interpreter, Yulin Zheng said in an interview with ProPublica and The Frontier,” We were overworked.” Nearly 50 employees worked up to 14 hours a day, no days off, and lived in trailers without air conditioning, she said.

Zheng and her husband, Chang Qin Jiang, both in their late 60s, took jobs in Oklahoma after someone told them cannabis was a lucrative industry. Each of them received$ 4, 000 in cash the first month. But the next month, a boss told them he did n’t have the money, according to screenshots of text messages they included in a complaint to the Labor Department.

In a text message, he said,” I’ll pay the wage in a few days, probably next week.” ” Believe me”!

The cash never came. He told the couple that if they bought one of the farm’s greenhouses to grow and sell themselves, they could make money, several months later.

” It was like a chicken game”, Zheng said. The bosses “were trying to keep as much money as possible” they claimed.

The employer eventually abandoned the farm, leaving many workers without food or transportation, according to the couple and court documents. The couple’s son in California drove to Oklahoma and helped them file the successful claim.

According to court documents, the farm’s owner later attempted to file for bankruptcy, but the court discovered she had not disclosed hundreds of thousands of dollars in marijuana-related income, according to court documents. Public records also show that the phone number for the farm belongs to the Chinese owner of a furniture store in Oklahoma City that the FBI raided last year in an investigation that led to three other people being convicted. The store was being used as a staging area for a criminal network that sold marijuana to the East Coast using fictitious Amazon delivery vehicles, according to investigators.

Workers at other farms have recounted their struggles in Chinese-language blog posts. In 2021, an electrician at a farm near Maramec, Oklahoma, alleged that his employer threatened to “have our legs broken” when he and his wife asked for months of wages they were never paid. A boss at a different farm threatened her with an iron bar and a gun as she confronted her over an unpaid salary. Court documents show the farm was later raided and the owner convicted on drug charges.

Scams are also prevalent in other states, according to interviews and court records.

” What we see is Chinese nationals who are either here legally … or were smuggled in across the Mexican border and are forced into labor, or more often tricked into labor”, said Kevin McInerney, a commander at the California Department of Cannabis Control.

Agents in Southern California are investigating the recent case of a woman who invested$ 10, 000 to work at a marijuana farm in exchange for a small monthly wage and an eventual cut of the profits. The employers turned down her first-month’s salary after she labored in repulsive conditions. She stopped working in protest, so they drove her out into the desert and abandoned her at a gas station, officials said.

According to Whitney Anderson, the director of The Dragonfly Home, an organization that serves the needs of Oklahoma City’s homeless people, marijuana business is “inherently more violent” than other industries.

Workers in Oklahoma have suffered beatings and even died in robberies and shootings. In one case, an employee told police her boss grabbed her by the hair, fired shots near her head and threatened to kill her and her daughter, according to court documents.

A danger to victims of sex crimes is also present. A 42-year-old former supervisor at a cannabis farm in Noble County is facing charges of rape and sexual battery after he allegedly assaulted an employee in her sleeping quarters in 2022, court documents say. He had previously attempted to assault her at work by injecting ketamine into her drinking water to elude her, but a coworker intervened, according to the documents. The former supervisor has pleaded not guilty and is awaiting trial.

” I’m so scared ]he ] will take revenge on me, my daughter, or family”, the woman wrote in a request for a protective order. I must live in fear every day.

And in another dramatic incident in 2021, a Chinese worker in Garvin County escaped from a marijuana farm and ran to a nearby house, where he banged on the door screaming for help. According to 911 call transcripts, court records, and interviews, a man and a woman chased him down and attempted to drag him across the road.

” They had a big old fight in my front yard”, Diann Skinner, who lives in the house, said in an interview. ” They’d tackle him, he’d get up and take off and they’d tackle him again”.

Frightened neighbors and passing drivers called police, who arrived as the assailants wrestled with the escaped worker. The woman and two men had held him against his will for three months and forced him to work, the 37-year-old victim reported to police. He was “extremely scared” of his captors and “believed they would try to kill him”, a police report said.

Police found 1, 500 pounds of illegal marijuana,$ 32, 000 in cash and two pistols in the run-down property, which served as a processing depot for Chinese-owned farms involved in illicit trafficking, according to court documents and interviews.

The suspects were charged with kidnapping and drug trafficking, according to the prosecution. But the victim quickly left the state, making it impossible to pursue the kidnapping charge. The two men received sentences of two years in prison and a conviction for the drug offenses. The charges against the woman were dropped.

Fifty thousand dollars

Westin zeng. Photo: Clifton Adcock / The Frontier

His distraught nephew Westin flew to Oklahoma City the day after Zeng’s passing to meet with a farmland man and four women. They had a tense conversation in the lobby of an apartment building, he said.

” They said,’ We did everything right,'” Westin Zeng said. The conversation was all about” It was your uncle’s fault,” according to the way these people spoke to me.

The group did not give their names and offered to pay$ 50, 000 if the family kept silent, Westin alleges. He claimed he turned down.

ProPublica and The Frontier used photos, social media, public records and other sources to identify the owner of the farm, Xiuna Chen. Westin Zeng recognized her as one of the people at the meeting.

Chen has not been indicted for a crime. But public records show that her Blackwell farm has multiple ties to another farm that was recently raided by the Oklahoma Organized Crime Task Force, which led to six indictments. The defendants have entered a not-guilty plea.

Chen referred reporters to Box, her lawyer, who accused the dead worker’s family of trying to” shake down” his client” for a ton of money”.

Another woman that Westin Zeng recognized from the meeting is Zhixin Liu, who on social media goes by Stella — the name given by the woman who brought Jiaai Zeng to the hospital. Liu’s phone is listed as her owner on a report from the Blackwell farm’s marijuana license, which was obtained by firefighters who were responding to a fire there in April.

In 2022, Liu established a corporation with Zenith Top LLC, an Oklahoma City firm that has been raided for allegedly setting up illegal marijuana ventures, public records show. According to public records and court records, she listed her address as a home that belongs to a suspected owner of Zenith Top. The owners of the firm have not been charged, though agents have executed search warrants and initiated money forfeiture actions against them that are awaiting trial.

Liu declined requests for comment.

Westin Zeng met with an OSHA official and the state anti-drug director while they were in Oklahoma. Officials at both agencies told ProPublica and The Frontier that they are investigating the farmworker’s death and the Blackwell farm.

The family’s interaction with authorities is unusual. Many workers who feel they have been victims of wrongdoing do n’t have contacts in the US or their relatives are fearful and speak little English, officials said.

Last year, the state narcotics bureau succeeded in building a human trafficking prosecution in a grim case: The accused ringleaders forced women to work as prostitutes at a brothel catering to owners and managers of Chinese-owned marijuana farms, flying the women to Oklahoma City from New York, according to court documents.

However, in general, victims ‘ reluctance and elusiveness deter authorities from bringing charges of human trafficking or workplace abuses. They focus instead on drug-related offenses by the owners.

Workers in Oklahoma are especially vulnerable because of the conflict between state and federal laws and weak regulation.

Oklahoma leaves regulation of workplace safety to OSHA, but the agency does not proactively monitor marijuana worksites in Oklahoma, and it only investigates in extreme cases such as job-related injuries or deaths, officials said. Because marijuana remains illegal at the federal level, OSHA has not developed specific workplace safety regulations for the cannabis industry, and relies mostly on the agency’s general duty clause, which covers all employers, for enforcement.

A state task force mandates that owners of marijuana operations take a training course and develop a written injury and illness program in California, which has its own state-level workplace safety agency. Even owners of illegal growing sites are subject to such rules, a spokesperson for the California Department of Industrial Relations said.

Leaders in Oklahoma claim to be working to break through bureaucratic limbo. The state labor commissioner, Leslie Osborn, said in an interview that the heads of agencies met last year” to really knock out who is responsible for what. And there is not a lot of clarity”.

Osborn said,” We let this flourish like a black market, and now we’re kind of behind the eight ball.”

Sebastian Rotella is a reporter at ProPublica. He covers terrorism, intelligence, and organized crime as an award-winning foreign correspondent and investigative reporter. Kirsten Berg is a research reporter with ProPublica. Garrett Yalch&nbsp, and&nbsp, Clifton Adcock report for The Frontier.

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Biden has Covid: Here’s what an over-80 can expect – Asia Times

If US elections in the run-up to the 2024 presidential poll were a Hollywood movie, there would be many plot twists and upsets. The most recent development is that President Joe Biden is isolating at home and has Covid.

Biden’s physician claims his symptoms are mild, including a runny nose, cough, and general unwellness. His temperature, air degrees and breathing level are said to be normal.

Biden, who has had Covid thrice before, has received his Covid vaccine, booster shots, and second dose of the viral medication Paxlovid.

No doubt, Biden may be receiving the best of health treatment. However, because many new internet coverage reminds us, he is 81 centuries old.

But let’s look at what it means for an 81-year-old man to possess Covid in 2024. Of course, Biden is not just any person, but we’ll come to that later.

Surprisingly, it’s not 2020

A Covid treatment at this age would have been a great deal if we had been up in 2020.

This was before Covid vaccines, before certain Covid treatments, and before we were as well-versed in the drug as we are today. Back then, being over 80 and being infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus ( the virus that causes Covid ) represented a significant threat to your health.

Earlier in the pandemic, it became abundantly clear that getting a serious illness and passing out increased with age. The early data suggested that if you were over 80 and infected, you had about a 15 % likelihood of dying from the disease.

Also, if you did develop severe disease, we did n’t have a lot in the toolkit to deal with your infection.

Remember that, despite being 55 at the time, past UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson died in the ICU from a Covid infections in April 2020. That’s a much younger age than Biden is today.

Donald Trump, the former US president, even experienced what is thought to be a very severe case of Covid in October 2020. He was 74 at the time.

How things have changed

But this storm the clocks forward to 2024. In four decades, there has been a bit.

Covid is still a condition that needs to be treated significantly. And for some individuals with other health problems ( for example, people with heart disease or diabetes ) it poses more of a risk. And of course, we are more aware of the well-known, long-term consequences of Covid.

However, today’s risk from Covid is much less severe than it was in the past.

More of us have some resistance

Second, most people have some resistance to Covid then, whether this has come from vaccination or previous infections or, for some, both.

Your immune system’s ability to respond to disease is affected by the fact that it has been exposed to it. Yes, there is a problem with waning immunity over time and the disease changing, so you need to get regular booster shots. But as your defense system has” seen” the disease before, that allows it to listen more efficiently, which means the risk posed by infections has fallen considerably.

We are aware that Biden has had his boost shots. Pods have been shown to provide significant protection against serious illness and death, and they are especially crucial for older age groups.

Now we have immunotherapy

Second, we even have antiviral drugs. If taken immediately after developing symptoms, paxlovid is efficient in reducing the likelihood of severe disease from Covid.

In one study, if taken soon after infection, Paxlovid reduced the likelihood of severe illness or death by 89 %. Therefore, it is highly advised for those who are more likely to have a serious condition. As we know, Biden is taking Paxlovid.

Paxlovid has also been linked to bounce symptoms. This occurs when a person appears to have recovered from an illness only to reappear symptoms. This happened in 2022 for Biden.

The good news is that despite this occurring, the symptoms typically associated with the frequency are mild.

Biden may receive the best attention.

Biden may also benefit from some of the best medical care available, of course.

You can be certain that he will receive the best treatment if his symptoms escalate to a higher level or if any complications grow.

But is Biden’s analysis information? Well, of course, given all the debate about his health. There are no indications that Covid is a big risk to Biden’s health.

At Deakin University, Hassan Vally is an associate professor of epidemiology.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Trump sending shockwaves across global chip industry – Asia Times

The recent decline in global chip stocks, which includes significant losses from industry titans like ASML, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ( TSMC) speaks to more than just market volatility.

Instead, it emphasizes the urgent need for proper alignment in the face of global tumult, which is primarily fueled by the US, the largest economy in the world.

The Biden administration is anticipating a significant, comprehensive assault on businesses that export crucial chipmaking systems to China.

Washington’s foreign direct product rule ( FDPR ), allows the US to implement controls on foreign-made products even if they use the smallest amount of US technology. This may affect non-American businesses.

The semiconductor industry has been shocked by separate statements made by former US president Donald Trump, who appears to be in the running for president today. &nbsp,

Trump has sparked questions about the future of US-Taiwan relationships, TSMC’s death, and the global semiconductor supply chain by suggesting Taiwan should pay for its security and asserting that Taiwan has” about 100 %” of the country’s semiconductor company. &nbsp,

These assertions have cast a shadow on the US’s commitment to protecting Taiwan from possible Chinese aggression, creating an environment of doubt that has shook markets.

As the nation’s leading silicon factory, TSMC is the connection of the global technology ecosystem. &nbsp, Its Taiwan-listed shares recent decline of approximately 2.4 % is a distinct sign of investment stress.

However, this time of market fluctuation offers TSMC and the wider chip industry an opportunity to reassess and strengthen their proper positions.  First and all, TSMC and another semiconductor companies must increase their efforts to expand their supply chains. &nbsp,

To reduce the risks posed by political tensions, this requires expanding production abilities outside of Taiwan. Establishing fresh production facilities in allies may protect businesses from possible disruptions.

The tech giant should even increase opportunities in cutting-edge technologies and research to maintain its competitive advantage. &nbsp, By staying at the vanguard of silicon technology, TSMC can continue to lead the market, ensuring that it remains critical to global tech companies.

The transistor industry must actively influence political discourse. Leaders of industry should speak with policymakers to demand firm, supportive international relations that advance the interests of the world’s tech economy.

In response to Trump’s notes, it’s essential for Taiwan to bolster its defense partnerships with the US and other friends. A robust defence relationship not only guarantees Taiwan’s security but also bolsters buyer confidence in the security of the region’s semiconductor industry.

The latest political climate has a far-reaching impact beyond Taiwan. Supplier shortages and supply chain disruptions have an impact on a range of international markets, affecting everything from electrical to consumer electronics to consumer electronics. &nbsp,

Therefore, supporting stability and growth in the semiconductor field is in the shared interests of international stakeholders. Togetherness and strategic vision from both market leaders and governments is necessary for the advancement of the country.

The silicon industry is the backbone of the current market, and its security is fundamental. TSMC and its peers can overcome these difficult times and emerge stronger by taking proactive steps to improve endurance, develop, and foster political relations.

TSMC needs to take bold steps and demonstrate creative command at this time. The organization and the global semiconductor business can weather the current political environment and prosper in the new political environment, but the stakes are high.

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Chinese ‘pig butchering’ scams targeting American suckers – Asia Times

BANGKOK – Human “pig butchering” scams have stolen billions of dollars from Americans rendering them financially devastated, heartbroken from fake love, and in worst cases suicidal, according to a new US Institute of Peace ( USIP ) report on Chinese-dominated transnational crime based in Southeast Asia.

In a sad bend, many of the estimated 300, 000 lying, sweet-talking scammers – largely from developing nations – likewise suffer because they are supposedly imprisoned and brutalized by the Chinese-run groups.

The armed groups trap or steal them to Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos and “deploy abuse to employ victims in driven criminality”, the USIP statement said.

There are presently no reports of any Americans being trapped in these facilities, but there have been a small amount, according to USIP visiting specialist Jacob Sims in an interview.

” A couple of years ago, an American was in a compound]in Cambodia ] – and treated as a criminal once he got out, by the Cambodian government – and eventually found his way back to America.

” And there was another who was repatriated to Thailand and then returned to America from a mixture on the Thai-Myanmar border.

” That one was I think more just, maybe three months ago, something like that”, Sims said.

” He was released during a large release of some, like adjacent to a thousand persons, that were being held. ” Some of them ended up getting released, and some ended up getting deported,” back home in China.

He claimed that he was allegedly brought up to the US after being slowly brought back to Thailand.

According to Sims,” It is actually highly probable that there are Americans or British people working willingly in these compounds, but the incentives do n’t work out against Americans ]against their will because the US government is then going to be more aggressively reacting against the compounds.”

According to USIP Burma ( Myanmar ) country director Jason Tower,” there are a lot of law enforcement representatives from all over the world who have traveled to that area,” where compounds are clustered along Thailand’s Myanmar side.

” The 30-some-odd materials which are there, are all smuggling people and keeping citizens enslaved”, Tower said.

Beijing is one of the nations attempting to stop the organized crime that started years ago when illegitimate net Chinese gambling sites discovered heinous methods of money transfer.

” China’s government and law enforcement, after failing to take this issue seriously for years, are now using the reputation of Chinese-led violence groups in other countries to support dramatic increases in the presence of China’s authoritarian authorities around the globe”, said the 68-page report.

” The United States and China ]are ] the two most strongly affected victims of the online scamming industry”, it said.

Deceitful, scripted attempt at relationship resulting in stolen funds through online scams and fraudulent financial applications and websites, are known in China as” sha zhu dish” – animal killing.

Individual Americans and other foreign survivors who fall in love with their con artists and invest in fake opportunities frequently experience extreme emotional and financial stress as a result of the deceptive con.

According to the Washington-based USIP report,” this scamming industry could soon rival fentanyl as one of the top dangers that Chinese criminal networks pose to the United States.”

” I am on the ground, listening to what victims are actually experiencing in the United States”, said Erin West, an international cross-agency Rapid Enforcement Allied Computer Team ( REACT) prosecutor and Santa Clara County, California, deputy district attorney.

” In the United States, and in many other countries around the world…this particular scam does n’t end until they ]victims ] have lost every last penny they have”, she said.

The pig butchering scam is similar to that. And I refer to it as devouring our victims from snout to tail.

They are using the courtship period to find out exactly how much our victims have and where the assets are located, she said.

West made the remarks at the Foreign Correspondents ‘ Club of Thailand in June during a Transnational Crime in Southeast Asia panel discussing the release of the USIP’s May report.

The cyber gigolo knows “exactly how much is still available that they can get these people to invest,” she said when the delusional one-sided romances turn into dreams of big profits being made through cryptocurrency investments.

These fake relationships start with a cold call made by an unidentified person who attempts to meet cute with the patsy online and patiently cultivates them until the victims agree to invest an initial US$ 5, 000 or so in cryptocurrency.

Their funds are transferred to an online crypto account that the con artists control. Soon, the victims of love-struck are instructed to be brave and aim for much bigger profits by depositing more and more.

When victims try to withdraw their investment, the scammers tell the now-panicking dupes they must first pay a 25 % tax bill” from new funds.”

” They’re mortgaging their homes, they’re taking high-interest loans, and borrowing from everyone they know,” West said.

Then the scammers disappear into cyberspace.

Today, thousands of criminals are posting counterfeit profiles of non-existent, good-looking, romantic people on Meta, Facebook, Linked In, Tinder, Whats App, Telegram, and other online social media to fool victims.

Thieves fabricate images to resemble their fictitious personalities to mimic the lifestyles of their targets.

Pig butchering call centers have smaller operations in the US and other countries, but are primarily located in Southeast Asia, according to investigators.

Eager job seekers, who are primarily from Asia, are frequently conned into visiting Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos through websites and chat groups describing fantastic positions at hotels, casinos, and other locations.

Those three relatively impoverished countries, clustered around Thailand, are ideal because widespread corruption enables the gangs to operate.

” Thailand offers the enclaves reliable energy, stable telecommunications, and easy access to a major financial center,” USIP said.

When new, unsuspecting employees arrive, they are captured, brutalized, and forced to work in guarded, hidden buildings using the gang’s computers and encrypted telecommunications, USIP said.

Because of their language prowess, Indians, Malaysians, and other English-speaking people are regarded as pig butchers in the US and Europe.

According to USIP,” China-origin criminal networks” that are “running the scams from Southeast Asia during 2023” are estimated to have lost$ 3.5 billion.

Worldwide, up to$ 64 billion was stolen from millions of people last year, they said.

Sean Gallagher, a senior researcher at Sophos, a cybersecurity firm, said he investigated pig butchering in 2023 by pretending to be a potential sucker.

A 40-year-old woman posing as a 40-year-old woman allegedly lied to Gallagher as a Hong Kong-based con artist who instructed him to download and use secretly infected software to upload his signed identification papers and deposit money into an account holding gold.

In Gallagher’s second test”, a Cambodia-based Chinese organized crime operation” tried to lure him into a cryptocurrency scam, Sophos reported.

In 2023, Sophos discovered two “malicious” apps on the Apple and Google Play Store, prompting Apple and Google to remove them.

One of the bad apps was” Ace Pro” which disguised itself in the app store as” a QR code-checking application.”

The other fake app was” MBM_BitScan” which offered” a real-time data tracker for cryptocurrencies “and” a fake crypto trading interface,” Sophos reported.

According to USIP, “pig butchering scams have also exposed vulnerabilities in the US financial system,” with one instance involving the closure of a state-owned bank in Kansas and the prosecution of a victim facing criminal charges.

Richard S Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia since 1978, and winner of Columbia University’s Foreign Correspondents ‘ Award. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books”, Rituals. Killers. Wars. &amp, Sex. — Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka &amp, New York “and” Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers &amp, Freaks “are available here.

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Trump’s JD Vance problem is now China’s, too – Asia Times

Xi Jinping, the president of China, is upset that his Second Plenum extravaganza is competing for attention with occasions 11 000 kilometers away from Beijing.

In Xi’s protection, it’s tough to compete for articles with an&nbsp, death attempt&nbsp, against former US President Donald Trump half a world apart. That comes just over two months after Trump’s heated argument with a mentally challenged President Joe Biden.

However, Trump’s selection of JD Vance as his working mate could indicate a much bigger upstaging of Xi’s biggest financial plans going forward.

US votes seldom, if ever, move on VP takes. And Vance, a first-term lawmaker from Ohio, is more Trump “mini me” than a working partner who may develop the card’s charm. But Vance is an important communication choose– signaling a doubling down on Trumpism’s worst intuition.

Doubling down on Trumpism’s worst intuition

And it might be negative for Trump’s hopes that he might be more contextual than confrontational in a second term.

Granted, this was always a longer shot. However, Tokyo officials have been having a hard time accepting the possibility of Trump striking a “grand discount” trade agreement with Xi, leaving other important Asian nations looking inward from the outside.

It’s anyone’s think what having China-hawk Vance– who’s all-in on revoking Beijing’s “most-favored state” standing – whispering in the government’s ear does think for a Trump 2.0 presidency. It at least suggests that Trump’s 60 % price is just the start of a larger campaign to rekindle trade wars.

The credit damage could be exceptional. UBS Group AG believes that just this duty had cut China’s annual rise by more than 50 %, slapping 2.5 percentage points off the gross domestic product of Asia’s largest economy. China grew just 4.7 % in the first quarter &nbsp, amid weak retail spending, property investment and new home sales.

That would smash China ‘s&nbsp, trade website, which has been a particularly strong growth driver this year. There is also a chance that other nations will even impose tariffs on imports from China, according to UBS economist Wang Tao, who believes that increasing exports through and production in other economies may help lessen the impact of higher US tariffs over time.

That includes Europe, which has been angling to decrease down China’s energy vehicle&nbsp, business. Biden, to, announced a 100 % tax on China-made Vehicles. Trump, though, has telegraphed 100 % or 200 % tariffs on all imported cars.

Trump’s choice to support Vance over the Republican presidential campaign’s potential for VP almost indicates a desire to bargain. In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday, Vance called Xi’s business the “biggest danger” to America.

Lin Jian, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, responded to Vance’s question about Chinese elections by referring to Beijing’s “opposes US votes making an topic of China.”

In April, Vance argued Washington’s rely on Ukraine is a harmful diversion. ” To be powerful enough to push back against the Chinese, we’ve got to focus there, and right now, we’re stretched to thin”, noted Vance, who’s long called for “broad-based taxes” on Chinese products.

Vance also supports returning American production to the country to lessen dependence on Beijing. Of course, Biden does to. However, the Trump-Vance plan will undoubtedly concentrate more on attempting to stifle China’s economy rather than fostering domestic financial muscles or rekindling US innovation.

Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, tells the South China Morning Post that a Trump-Vance White House would be more involved in the Taiwan issue than Trump’s 2017-2021 management.

” Vanes would strengthen and enhance China’s software restraints and suppression,” Wu claims. He may pay close attention to the Taiwan problem because he thinks it is very significant for the US economy, particularly in terms of cards.

Suddenly, Trump would supposedly call the shots. But the Vance wrinkle might make it even harder for Trump to distance himself from” Project 2025″, the&nbsp, 900-page playbook the Heritage Foundation&nbsp, devised for a second Trump term. Vance has close associations with the blueprint’s artists.

Though the policy’s efforts to heart the state legal company gets the most interest, Project 2025 also advocates for the abolition&nbsp, of the Federal Reserve and reverting back to a gold standard for the US dollar. These concepts are certainly comforting to China’s international trade reserve managers, who are in charge of the US$ 770 billion in US Treasury securities holdings.

The upcoming US election is beginning to have a significant impact on how Xi’s market will fare. In Beijing this year, Xi is convening with major Communist Party officials at the&nbsp, long-awaited Third Plenum. And the world is watching.

” Historically, this function has been important in signaling important legislation shifts and economic changes in China”, notes analyst Alicia Garcia-Herrero at Natixis. Market individuals and China watchers hope the Third Plenum will address a very specific issue: whether enough growth-enhancing steps will be announced to restore the country’s struggling business after years of disappointing performance.

Xi is calling on group leaders to demonstrate “unwavering beliefs and commitment” to his transformation interests championing “high-quality development”. International academics are paying particular attention to  fiscal reforms, particularly those involving taxes and federal spending, and initiatives to lessen the burden on local governments by increasing their income sources.

Yet the work comes at a time when some international&nbsp, expense banks are cutting projections for China’s development. Additionally, China’s international markets are depressed by its lack of extreme stimulus measures.

” This” ,&nbsp, Garcia-Herrero says, “has important consequences for the global economy, namely that China’s demand for foreign products will remain subdued and that Chinese companies will continue to rely on foreign markets to survive. This suggests that trade war are still raging in newspapers and possibly going on beyond.

The signs that Team Xi sends to foreign buyers are all-watched. Given that property policies are one of the main topics of discussion at the meeting, the continuous downturn continues to pose the greatest threat to the market given its considerable wealth effect, according to Kevin Wong, an analyst at currency broker Oanda.

According to Wong, policymakers are “walking on a line” to reduce the risk inherent in the real estate industry as a result of the last ten years ‘ unsuccessful purchase initiatives to fuel economic growth. They are also aware that a further drop in real estate prices may cause inflation to spiral downward.

Wong adds that the US$ 41 billion system, which was announced in May to assist state-owned companies in purchasing empty housing investment from property developers, has so far failed to “bolster mood in the property sector as housing prices continued to decline in June.”

Wong believes that” the next policy-market approach may be taken into consideration during the Third Plenum, given the urgency of reviving the current weak state of local domestic demand, is to implement more prominent fiscal stimulus initiatives that can have a strong impact on consumer spending, such as spending vouchers or further , tax rebates , without launching quantitative easing measures to add more liquidity into the market that can lead to renminbi depreciation and in turn

If such a form of direct fiscal stimulus measures is announced, Wong concludes,” the China and Hong Kong stock markets may get a short-term sentiment boost”.

Yet&nbsp, many&nbsp, argue that expectations are quite low for policy fireworks out of Beijing this week.

This “four-day meeting of the country’s top governing body could n’t come soon enough”, says Harry Murphy Cruise, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. However, it’s unlikely to be a particularly exciting situation given that the demand for reform is high.

The same ca n’t be said of risks emanating from Washington. The political polarization behind the&nbsp, Capitol Hill&nbsp, insurrection&nbsp, on Jan. 6, 2021&nbsp, contributed to&nbsp, Fitch&nbsp, Ratings ‘ August 2023 move to revoke Washington’s AAA status. Even if Trump loses in November, there’s a zero percent chance he would concede graciously.

Moody’s Investors Service, the keeper of Washington’s only remaining AAA, points to these risks, as well as clashes over funding the government and raising the statutory debt ceiling, as threats to the US credit outlook.

Trump also has opinions that will undoubtedly pique the interest of Asian policymakers. As a New York&nbsp, businessman in decades past, Trump was a serial bankruptcy filer. Trump made an illogical flurry of hints about a default on American debt while campaigning in 2016.

” I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal”, Trump told&nbsp, CNBC&nbsp, when asked about his fiscal plans. ” And if the economy was good, it was good. So therefore, you ca n’t lose”.

In 2020, the Washington Post reported that Trump officials, looking to punish China, mulled&nbsp, cancelling debt&nbsp, held by Beijing. It’s not difficult to comprehend how catastrophic a catastrophe that would be as the US debt is rising toward US$ 35 trillion.

Trump’s reelection platform and choice of running mate suggest that global investors are likely to have no idea where Sino-US trade disputes might turn next.

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