The AI-piloted fighter age has arrived - Asia Times

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A US AI-piloted warrior recently engaged in a duel with a guarded fighter in a scene that evokes a modern science fiction film, evoking the automatic upcoming of aerial combat.

This fortnight, The Warzone reported that the X-62 check aircraft, a modified F-16, safely conducted a first-of-its-kind battle against a guarded F-16.

The test flight, which involved a pilot in the cockpit as a failsafe, was part of the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s ( DARPA ) Air Combat Evolution (ACE ) program, The Warzone report said.

The X-62A, also known as the Variable-stability In-flight Simulator Test Aircraft (VISTA ), can mimic aircraft systems, making it an ideal platform for supporting work like ACE.

Between December 2022 and September 2023, the X-62A successfully completed 21 test flights in support of ACE, with nearly daily reprogramming of the “agents. ” ”

DARPA and the US Air Force continue to stress that the program’s goal is to increase plane ship by having the best AI pilot available at all times.

Machine learning is used by the ACE software to make decisions about current and upcoming circumstances based on historical data analysis. The X-62A’s safety features have been very helpful in allowing the use of machine learning officials in real-world options, despite the challenges of comprehending and evaluating AI’s use in flight-critical techniques.

The Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA ) drone program is a part of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA ) drone program, which aims to acquire low-cost drones with high autonomy. It will be tested later this year with US Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall in the cockpit.

Potential enemies and worldwide competition, such as China, are constantly looking for developments in the emerging field, given that the underlying technology being developed under ACE has extensive applications.

Dogfighting is one of the most difficult factors of air-to-air battle, but improvements in AI could change it. The proliferation of increasingly stealthy fighter aircraft means opposing sides will unlikely detect each other at beyond-visual-range ( BVR ) distances, increasing the chances that a close-range dogfight may happen.

With more than 2,000 time on the F-16, an AI developed by US-based Heron Systems defeated a mortal captain 5-0 using just its onboard gun in a real battle in 2020.

The individual aircraft and Heron System’s AI fought in five simple movement settings, with the AI working within the boundaries of the F-16’s maneuvers.

The AI could rating cannon kills against the individual pilot, aiming from apparently impossible angles, thanks to its extraordinary accuracy. With just a few rounds of ammunition and hence at a reasonable price, an AI-piloted fighter does decimate a guarded fighter fleet.

AI-piloted plane are free from human limitations and you fly more quickly, action more quickly, and shoot better with constantly improving detectors, processors, and application.  

Given that AI aircraft ‘ apparent dueling superiority raises the question of whether people pilots will still be required for upcoming aerial combat. While AI performs certain things also, it lacks a mortal pilot’s general intelligence and wisdom.

Thus, combining AI detail with mortal decision-making may be the most effective way to incorporate AI into upcoming aerial combat.

Sue Halpern asserts in a January 2022 essay for The New Yorker that AI may only partially alter human pilots ‘ jobs.

Halpern anticipates that AI-piloted fighters did fly alongside guarded fighters, with mortal pilots directing squads of autonomous aircraft. She also makes note of the ACE initiative, which is a more significant effort to “decompose” fighter models into smaller, less expensive units because the US might not be able to build the number of guarded fighters and educate the pilots needed for a powerful conflict with China.

But, Halpern points out that having confidence in AI is a major problem, pointing out that the key is how to make people pilots trust their AI counterparts. The former may be kept watch over the latter, breaking the idea of AI planes in the first place, due to a lack of trust.

In a 2022 content in the peer-reviewed International Journal of Law and Information Technology, Tim McFarland points out that believe in AI may be equated to assurance that AI will perform as it is intended without constant supervision.

Because of previous experiences that have shown AI to be trusted, McFarland explains that people typically rely on AI in situations where risk and uncertainty are present, such as when navigating a car or identifying defense goals. He notes that establishing confidence in AI is essential to establish distinct objectives, similar to a contract.

According to McFarland, an AI system may be required to perform specific tasks under certain circumstances, such as identifying goals in a military operation, and its dependability on meeting these objectives is a key factor in determining its integrity.

In high-risk situations where users may not have direct power or connection with AI systems, particularly in situations requiring electronic warfare ( EW)-intensive, it is crucial to develop reliable AI techniques that can be trusted based on their performance.

In a May 2023 Aerospace America content, Caitlin Lee and others point out that the large volume of data required to train an AI captain, combined with the difficulties of training AI in a simulated environment, does not reflect the complexity of dueling and real-world fight settings.

China has conducted its own simulation dogfights to pit AI fighter pilots against humans to prevent falling behind.

The South China Morning Post (SCMP ) reported in March 2023 that Chinese military researchers engaged in a dogfight between two small unmanned fixed-wing aircraft, one with an AI pilot on board and the other with a human pilot on the ground. SCMP notes that the AI-piloted plane was superior in close-range dogfights, with its human opponent a constant underdog.

At the start of the said dogfight, the human pilot made the first move to gain the upper hand but the AI predicted his intentions, outmaneuvered, counter-moved and stuck close behind.

The human pilot attempted to elude the AI to crash to the ground, but according to the SCMP report, the AI moved into an ambush position and waited for him to pull up.

The human pilot performed the “rolling scissors ” maneuver, hoping the AI would overshoot, but he could not evade his AI opponent, forcing the science team to call off the simulation after 90 seconds.

While the US conducted AI pilot research 60 years ago, SCMP claims that China has since surpassed it in terms of computing resources. It also says China ’s AI pilot is designed to operate on almost any People’s Liberation Army-Air Force fighter.

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Food fight: Russia's 'grain diplomacy' reshaping global markets - Asia Times

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The European Union continues to be concerned by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “grain politics,” which may turn the world’s trade patterns and areas in its favor.

In order to deter the present level of EU goods, the Western Commission has recently suggested increasing taxes on some Russian and Belarusian agricultural products, including cereals and soybeans.

International grain prices soared soon after Russia’s war of Ukraine, though they afterwards declined after the  A Black Sea corn offer was broken in 2022.

The agreement, which allowed Ukraine to export corn from Black Sea ships that had formerly been blocked by Russia’s army, was renewed half before ending. suspended  next month.

Since then, Ukraine has resumed exporting corn, and Russian wheat exports have reached record highs. Nitrogen shipments have even recovered.

Russia recorded a US$ 13. Energy and grain exports contributed to a 4 billion current account surplus in March, which was more than twice the$ 5 million that was available in February. 5 billion and the second-highest deficit since March 2007.

By the end of February, entire EU exports of corn and oilseed in 2023/2024 from Russia stood at 1. 8 million kilograms, in comparison to 19. 1 million tonnes from Ukraine, according to Western Commission information.

However, conversations about extending the expulsion of trade duties  outrage of some German producers has been raised by lower prices on Russian agricultural exports in Europe until June 2025.

Especially in Central and Eastern Europe, where critics claim that Ukraine goods that have been subject to placed import duties and other restrictions have created unfair competition.

Recent actions by EU nations have included appointing new restrictions on Russian agricultural imports. Food imports contribute more than 40 % of Ukraine’s trade revenue and 60 % of all imports, making the shipping a crucial revenue source.

As such, fresh EU trade regulations will actually adversely affect Ukraine’s already beleaguered war-time business, and by extension, likely bag its ability to sustain fighting against Russia.

It remains to be seen how directly and indirectly the Global South will be impacted by the new International tariffs, even though the transport of Ukrainian grain through the union to other nations will still be permitted to break Russian sea blocksades.

A ship carrying the Black Sea Grain Initiative is at water. Image: UNCTAD

The other major importing countries are Africa and Asia, two two extremely food-insecure regions, aside from the EU.

Between 2018 and 2020, Africa imported  $ 3. 7 billion in wheat  ( 32 % of total African wheat imports ) from Russia and US$ 1. 4 billion from Ukraine ( 12 % of total African wheat imports ).

A 2022 report from the United Nations identified  36 states reliant on Russia and Ukraine  for more than 50 % of their wheat exports, including some of the world’s most resilient economies like war-torn Syria and Somalia.

Putin has made a critical point about the fact that under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Europe was the largest supplier of Ukrainian corn, as opposed to the world’s regions and nations in desperate need of the items.

The Soviet leader has even condemned  the West for not taking steps to give Soviet agricultural items and nitrogen products equitable access to world markets.

The weaponization of meal supplies is key to Russia’s war approach, with Moscow then seeking to exchange Russian food supplies in reduced- and lower-middle-income countries with Russian-grown alternatives.

This approach enables Russia to project power while exerting influence on global food trade dynamics, including over supplies, availability, access and prices.  

Russia has a significant influence over global grain markets and, more broadly speaking, on the dynamics of agricultural trade. It is the world’s top wheat exporter, which accounts for nearly 25 % of the global grain trade.

Turkey, Bangladesh and fellow BRICS members Egypt and Saudi Arabia are among Russia’s biggest buyers. ( The BRICS bloc comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. )

Putin recently endorsed the establishment of a BRICS grain exchange, which is a significant step that has the potential to transform global agricultural markets.

The move attempts to compete with the country’s current, Western-dominated grain pricing system, which could also pose a new challenge to the US dollar’s position as the world’s top trading currency.  

Some of the biggest grain exporters and buyers in the world would be a part of the proposed BRICS grain exchange.

More than 1 percent of the expanding bloc now belongs to the four new members who were elected in January. 1.4 % of the world’s total grain production, and 1.24 billion tonnes. 23 billion tonnes of global grain consumption.

In light of rising global supply chain disruptions and growing food insecurity, a BRICS grain exchange could strengthen Moscow’s geo-economic influence and diplomatic leverage over participating nations.

Through stronger agricultural and trade ties with Russia, this could increase geopolitical and geostrategic alignment between the participating countries.

The influence of Putin’s “grain diplomacy ” is already apparent in Africa.

In February, Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said that Moscow had completed an initiative to ship 200,000 metric tonnes of free grain to six African countries, namely Somalia, Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, and Eritrea.

Russia’s expanding presence and influence on the continent is highlighted by the grain diplomacy initiative. A Russian military base is being sought by the Central African Republic; and has received Russian weapons, security expertise and training.  

Meanwhile, in Burkina Faso, where Moscow has recently opened an embassy, the country has seen the arrival of Russian troops, the first deployment of the so-called Africa Corps, an armed Russian force designed to replace the now-disbanded Wagner Group’s  mercenaries in Africa.

A BRICS grain exchange, in addition to the emerging economic bloc’s collective strength, would increase competition to find alternative markets for their goods for traditional grain exporting nations like the US and Australia.

In the face of competition from less expensive Russian grain, US and Australian exporters could soon face new difficulties in negotiating favorable trade terms and maintaining market shares.

The Global South is increasingly viewed as a meeting point for the BRICS. Image: Twitter Screengrab

US and Australian governments may also need to reevaluate their broad agricultural policies and begin looking for alternative markets to offset the impact of potential disruptions brought on by a Russia-led BRICS grain exchange.

For instance, Canberra may seek stronger ties with nearby Southeast Asia, as emphasized by the Albanese government’s Southeast Asia Economic Strategy to 2040.

For traditional exporting countries like the US and Australia, the need is rising to reevaluate trade policies and geo-economic strategies in a world that might eventually develop into competitive grain blocs. However, grain trade disagreements continue to stoke the seeds of dissention in Europe and beyond.

Genevieve Donnellon-May is a Research Associate at the Asia Society Policy Institute, Melbourne, Australia.

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Australia's new defense strategy already behind the times - Asia Times

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There have been a lot of security announcements just about buying new products, building up Australia’s production capabilities, creating local jobs, fresh legislation to help AUKUS and perhaps a new defense chief.

These merely reflect the Department of Defense’s hectic schedule, which involves a lot of money, and that officials enjoy announcing excellent information. But, the latest information related to Australia’s National Defense Strategy this week is of a different form.

The new National Defense Strategy‘s title emphasizes that all Australians are responsible for protecting themselves, not just the Australian Defence Force ( ADF) professionals.

It also takes the long perspective, well into the next generation. The plan will be updated every two times to keep up with changes in the Indo-Pacific and replace the occasional protection white papers. It was accompanied this week by an Integrated Investment Program, which lays out where A$ 330 billion ( US$ 212. 9 billion ) will be spent over ten times.

These two presentations set the program for a high-spending, sizable Department of Defense in a time of significant war in Europe and the Middle East, a sizable increase in Chinese arms production, and growing doubt about potential conflicts over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

The new federal framework, which aims to hinder and stop hostile troops from attacking Australia, emphasizes the importance of the “strategy of denial” in light of these global challenges.

More mundanely, both of these documents, up totaling nearly 200 pages, are the government’s means of controlling the sprawling Department of Defense. More explicitly, they set out the Albanese government’s perspective on security policy in period for the next national vote.

As such, both the eloquence in the files and the anticipated expenditures have near-term private reasons, as well as long-term geostrategic types.

Maybe the core of the approach is, surprise or not, the nuclear submarine consolidation program under the AUKUS ally with the US and UK. As time goes on, the underwater program is extremely dominating security in terms of governmental interest, budget allotment, industry development and workforce allocation.

But there are five other “immediate priorities ” tacked onto this one very big acquisition:

  • buying and creating long-range weapons
  • building up north protection base infrastructure
  • improving labor pay and circumstances
  • boosting technology
  • deepening Indo-Pacific alliances.

The security sector may most interessieren the Integrated Investment Program as it works to secure fresh multi-year goods and services deals, as well as state governments who want to have the funds used directly on jobs.

A common spending file like this is a good idea. It was first introduced by the John Howard authorities, at least in part to ensure that security projects would remain on time while facing scrutiny from the general public.

Since then, these kinds of investment papers have offered more and fewer details. This may be done to maintain safety, but it also limits the publication’s relevance and the potential for additional criticism, thereby lessening the scope of accountability for the huge amounts of public cash spent.

Less intensity, more longer-term preparation

The ADF will be more focused on its activities in the waters that are directly to the north of Australia as a result of the plan and investment plan.

The government has reduced the army’s heavier causes, cut a marine project for water raise ships, and delayed purchasing more F-35 fighter aircraft to support this move to a more maritime target.

Nevertheless, over time, the future army will be more mobile and amphibious, the navy’s fleet will be modernized, the air force will get sophisticated long-range missiles and the nation’s cyber capabilities will be enhanced.

Such changes, though, take time. In ten years, Australia may have just received one second-hand former US Navy nuclear submarine, but little else will have changed from now. Given the growing security concerns in the area, this government and its predecessor made a number of rhetorical remarks urging speed. However, neither government took actions suggesting such urgency.

Defense Minister Richard Marles quietly indicated that short-term improvements to the defense were now less necessary two weeks before the release of the new documents. He claimed that this kind of concentration “lacks wit.” ”

No middle power in the Indo-Pacific is solely capable of creating or deploying the size or breadth of military forces that powers like China and the US can.

Australia’s challenge lies in the future beyond this. And in this regard, we must invest in the capabilities of the ADF’s future.

Shortcomings of the strategy

However, despite the overall design direction that appears logical and has supporting budgets laid out, there are still questions about whether this newly focused ADF is feasible. Military forces are more than hardware. Well-trained people are essential to their effectiveness.

The strategy is pleasingly honest in noting a shortfall of around 4,400 ADF personnel, some 10 % of its total workforce. Although this issue has been well known for a while, only minor adjustments have been made.

It’s unlikely that our forces will be able to perform at their peak this decade because ADF personnel require a lot of training to achieve a high level of combat proficiency. Due to the absence of crews, new equipment is reportedly being purchased.

Unintentionally, the strategy and investment plan’s personnel shortfall issue raises yet another unexpected flaw. These documents appear to disregard the rapid technological advancements and operational innovations being demonstrated during the conflict in Ukraine.

These include attack, reconnaissance and electronic jamming drones, highly effective ground-based air defense systems and an artificial intelligence-enabled surveillance system that allows no one to hide.

There is a chance that the Integrated Investment Program and the National Defense Strategy will lead to an ADF that is better suited for 2015 than 2025 and that will likely be dated a bit in 2035. The future is about to arrive, but these plans do n’t really show it.

Peter Layton is Visiting Fellow, Strategic Studies, Griffith University

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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A five-body problem in geopolitics - Asia Times

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A five-body difficulty in politics: Jerusalem, Tehran, Washington, Beijing and Moscow

After the success of the Beijing Accord of March 2023, which restored relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Uwe Parpart highlights China’s potential role in preventing further political increase in the Middle East and shaping the region’s future path toward serenity.

China ’s market is on record, but the house business needs help

David P. After China’s first-quarter GDP growth rate topped expectations, Goldman writes that Beijing is likely to take steps to assist bankrupt or cash-strapped engineers in finishing flats on which customers have already made down payment. 2 %.

Moscow is prepared for war, but also for fighting.

According to James Davis, Russia is making more proper moves on Ukraine’s front lines, possibly opening the door for further advancement even as the Kremlin signals readiness to resume diplomatic discussions based on the 2022 Istanbul agreements.

Tesla in a tidal wave of prospects

According to Scott Foster, Tesla plans to reduce its workforce by over 10 % in order to become lean, innovative, and ready for growth. The automaker is also criticized for facing increasing competition from the less expensive EV market and for being perceived as overvalued in the car market.

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EU enlargement: What does the future hold? - Asia Times

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To “widen” or to “deepen”. This has been a perennial gimmick in the never-ending process of European integration and has long been one of the EU’s ( EU) history’s biggest problems.

In its day, France pushed for a deeper Union, while the UK pushed for a wider one. Because the British were heavily invested in the single market, they were keen to maximize monetary exchange and to make the possibility of EU social unification as difficult as possible because having more members may make any decision-making process more complicated.

France prioritized a focus on global democratic integration as a means of bolstering the EU’s foundations, despite its desire for an extended market.

Increasing and widdening are no mutually exclusive. In truth, both are important to Western integration, and in process both plans coexist, as all expansions have brought about changes. So, the discussion is not about choosing one or the other; rather, it is about how much the power balance between EU member states changes as a result of placing one or the other in the spotlight.

Renegotiating election laws and a change in the level of influence held by various EU institutions are the main factors behind all EU expansions. Since its founding, the EU has expanded east, and Russia’s attack on Ukraine means this is expected to continue. But, it is unclear exactly where “Europe” begins.

The 2004-2007 EU enhancement

In looking at current applicants for EU arrival, it is for second examining its second extension, which took place from 2004 to 2007.

Despite numerous shortcomings, this growth was widely successful in making new members more “European” by European standards.

However, the extension was fairly rushed: it included to many states that, some said, the EU was certainly ready to take in without problems. These nations were apparently not entirely informed of the repercussions of the action they were taking.

No fewer than 12 states participated in the largest and most difficult enhancement in the history of the EU. These were done in two phases: ten in 2004 ( Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia ) and two in 2007 ( Bulgaria and Romania ).

These nations had governments that showed administrative and judicial deficits, higher levels of corruption, and small protection for the privileges of some ethnic minorities. These nations were less developed than their western relatives.

The EU’s administrative framework suffered from a number of shortcomings, including the need for consensus in sensitive areas like immigration and defense. The emergence of a pan-European identification was even hampered by the continuous admission of so many novel member states.

These nations ‘ democratic transitions have been rocky, and the economic and social transitions have not always withstanded criticism or analysis. However, the EU has assisted them in adjusting to the construction established by their northern neighbors.

Potential extension

As of 2024, there are ten countries aspiring to EU membership: six in the Western Balkans ( Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia ) and four in other regions ( Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Turkey ).

The EU’s approach toward the Western Balkans has been anxious, provoking uneasiness and disillusionment. Therefore, treating each potential candidate separately to create individual “packs ” for negotiation would be the most likely choice. When it comes to the EU’s needs, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia ( in this attempt ) are in the best place for entry. There are a number of issues with the region’s another three state.

The conflict that is currently raging with Russia has largely contributed to the acceptance of Ukraine and Moldova as candidates.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is regarded as a brittle nation. The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srprska, the two government bodies that make up it, govern with their tails to one another. Shared organizations do not function properly, and the state ’s cultural Nationalists have threatened to seek independence. It is is even under NATO and EU supervision.

Kosovo is never recognized by several nations, including EU nations like Spain and Greece, politely.

Since the end of Yugoslavia, Serbia has remained near to Russian objectives.

Given that it has two lands under Russian control ( South Ossetia and Abkhazia ), it is unlikely to gain entry any time soon. It is geographically isolated from the rest of the EU, and it also lags behind on all development issues.

Regarding Turkey, it seems obvious that the EU does not have any true involvement in welcoming them. They have only been able to close one of the 35 pages in discussions on the EU’s acquis communitaire ( the regulations, rights, and rules that bind all EU member states ) after 25 years of discussions.

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and European Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi speaking at podiums.
Following the German Commission’s weekly meeting on the demands of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia for EU membership, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi release a speech. Dati Bendo/EC – Audiovisual Service, CC BY-NC

Possible challenges

In the (very ) long term we will likely see the EU grow from its current 27 states to as many as 35, though the oft-touted horizon of 2030 is unrealistic. Meeting the terms of the acquis presents a significant challenge for the current prospects, away from their significant economic differences with Eastern Europe. A plethora of unsettled territorial and diplomatic disputes can be added to this.

Despite the precedent set by Cyprus, where the north is occupied by Turkey and where there is no chance of reunification following the unsuccessful 2004 referendum, the EU should enlist states with internal disputes ( such as Bosnia ), states whose existence is not universally acknowledged ( Kosovo ), or states that do not have complete control over large areas of their own territory ( Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia ). These things are enough to prevent their entry.

The Union does not repeat the error it made by introducing ten fresh member states simultaneously during the enlargement process from 2004 to 2007. It is much more sensible to take a rushed, liberal approach, grouping countries into smaller groups which can then slowly combine. Forward planning is also needed. It would be sensible to reform the decision-making processes in the European Community as well as other political control mechanisms that should be used when new users are integrated before granting arrival to new members.

Prior to a fresh member’s membership, research has shown that the EU has more control in the negotiations than it does in the later stages. The freedom of an International member state are suspended under Article 7 of the Lisbon treaty if it” seriously and consistently violates the rules on which the EU is founded,” but this is all but impossible to do in practice. It requires a unanimous vote, and financial sanctions are not enough to change the course of authoritarian institutions, as proved by Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and, until October 2023, Jaroslav Kaczyński’s Poland.

Problems like the COVID-19 crisis and the continuing war in Ukraine are the driving force behind Western integration, but with the main Franco-German plane losing power, common opinion is not so passionate about integration. This tense, disjointed picture is manifested by the rise of the populist whoopines much right on the continent, even in the EU’s founding nations.

Today, the EU has a long list of key issues to face: typical defense (especially if an isolationist such as Trump returns to the US president ), the energy transition, environmental issues, Europe’s relative technological and digital barbarism and the unsatisfactory common migration coverage, among others.

Practical considerations

If the EU is to increase from 27 to 35 member states, it will need to implement extensive institutional and fiscal reforms. No matter how difficult it is to reform the necessary treaties, each member’s setting aside a budget for the EU of only 1 % of GDP is economically unsustainable.

Due to the European Commission’s and the European Parliament’s size not expanding with each new member, there will also need to be smaller and more distributed. The European Council’s veto rights will no longer be respected, and the rule of law will be strengthened.

Following the June 2024 elections, achieving this would require a broad consensus among the main pro-European political parties. Without this, further enlargements will not be possible.

In the meantime, passarelle or “bridge ” clauses could, in some cases, be used to circumvent the need for unanimity, and to make greater use of enhanced cooperation and constructive abstentions. These includes so-called “two-speed ” agreements, in which countries interested in a proposal join while those not interested simply abstain.

If the rising Eurosceptic tide is to be stemmed, this all has to be done while also keeping the public well informed: 53 % of Europeans approve of enlargement, while 37 % are opposed.

Cesáreo Rodríguez-Aguilera de Prat is catedrático de ciencia política, Universitat de Barcelona.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Blinken to China to fuss about support for Russia - Asia Times

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Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, will be in Beijing shortly to raise concerns about China’s support for Russia’s defense-industrial base and its order of Egyptian oil products.  

After ending a three-day attend to Beijing on Tuesday, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink and National Security Council Senior Director for China and Taiwan Affairs Sarah Beran announced Blinken’s visit to China.  

Last year, US officials briefed investigators on supplies China was providing to Russia, including drone and missile technology, satellite imagery and machine equipment, Reuters reported.

Additionally, Blinken is scheduled to speak with Taiwanese officials about the state of the Middle East.  

Blinken requested on April 11 to speak with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss the Iran-Israel fight. Wang said China was deeply offended by the April 1 strike by Israel against the Persian Embassy in Syria.

Joe Biden, the president of the United States, stated on April 12 that he anticipated Iran to launch an Israeli missile strike sooner rather than later. ” He underscored Washington ’s responsibility to protect Israel. Iran launched a barrage of missiles and uavs against Israel on April 13 and 14, and Israel was able to intercept most of them.

No full-blown Mideast combat yet

Washington and Beijing both demanded de-escalation, but a full-fledged conflict has not yet been declared.

( Indeed, if  a report  for which  The assault was a sort of charade, negotiated in enhance, in which Iran was allowed to display considerable anger while causing only moderate damage, according to former American investigative reporter Seymour Hersh, who cites unknown sources as being true. )

The US House of Representatives on Monday passed bipartisan legislation known as the Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act with a 383-11 ballot.

The bill, which was jointly proposed by Republican Mike Lawler and Democrat Josh Gottheimer, aims to make purchasing Egyptian gas and related items more difficult for China. Before it can come to Biden for his signature, it needs Senate approval.

“After Iran’s extraordinary invasion on Israel, and as its program of evil increases ties to China, we are reminded that they cannot be trusted, ” said Gottheimer.

”We may hold Iran and its backers responsible, especially China, the number one seller of Egyptian gas, ” said Lawler.  

The Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act and the SHIP Act, which were passed in November, are expected to weaken Iran’s ability to export death and instability to the Middle East.  

Even on Monday, Wang had a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.  

Wang said that while defending its independence and integrity, China believed that Iran is aware of the situation and would stay away from more turmoil. He continued,” China will continue to expand practical cooperation with Iran in various areas” to improve China-Iran relations.

A journalist answers

In an essay published on Wednesday, You Feng, a visiting professor at Peking University and a military critic, writes that the US House’s section of the Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act is a bargaining chip that aims to force China to reach a settlement on Egyptian problems. The act appears to be in effect rapidly if we do not comply with the United States ‘ request to have control over Iran. ”

She continues,” China is unlikely to give up its cooperation with Russia and Iran, even if Blinken will raise the issue during his approaching attend to Beijing.” The reason is easy. Our assistance with Iran and Russia is a standard business relationship. The United States’ unreasonable demand instantly hurts our passions, and this is intolerable. ”

She claims that if the US imposes restrictions, China will undoubtedly fight again. She says Blinken may consider Beijing’s ideas, before departing for China, rather of presenting a bunch of unreasonable expectations.

Overcapacity

After the US-China relationships had been strained by the Chinese spy bubble tragedy, the US export restrictions, and Taiwan problems in early 2023, Blinken traveled to China and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  

Since then, more US and Foreign leaders have held sessions. Sino-US connections were likewise stabilized by a face-to-face conference between Xi and US President Joe Biden in San Francisco in November. However, the US imposed sanctions on more Taiwanese businesses that shipped goods to Russia. It made new guidelines for exporting chips to China in October.  

Washington is now urging the European Union to take action to prevent being harmed by China’s industrial overcapacity, particularly in the electric vehicle ( EV ) sector.  

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz raised the subject of China’s overcapacity during a meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday in Beijing and declared that Germany wants free and fair industry.

Xi asked the European side to look at the matter honestly. He claimed that a rise in China’s imports of clean technology could help the earth combat global warming and reach its green goals.    

“The notion that China ’s overcapacity harms the global market is a complete fallacy, ” Li Jian, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said in a regular media briefing on Wednesday. The spread of that claim,” Protectionism has no benefit from itself, will only destabilize and reshape industrial and supply chains, impede the global transition to clean energy, and halt the growth of emerging sectors,” is a lie. ”

An article published by China National Radio’s flagship radio channel called The Voice of China said that the accusation of “overcapacity ” is another form of the West’s “decoupling ” with China. According to the statement, US lawmakers want to use this campaign to help with the upcoming presidential election.  

According to Li Daokui, director of the Center for China in the World Economy (CCWE ) at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management, all nations would provide funding for their new business during the growth phase.  

He claimed that while China is explicitly subsidizing its chip business, it cannot be held accountable for subsidizing its new energy industry.  

In a study note released on Monday, Chim Lee, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, notes that there is a” super-cycle” present in EVs and alternative energy technology as a result of excess offer in some areas of their supply chain being combined with unmet need. “These industries are very politicized internationally. Lower prices are important for accelerating the natural move, but they can also be seen as the result of government support. ”

Chinese companies to arrange EVs in Europe, goose tariffs

Following Jeff Pao on Twitter :  @jeffpao3

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Apply Israel-Iran lessons to Taiwan - Asia Times

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There is still a great deal to learn about Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel.  Even so, it is very clear that if such an attack were launched by China against Taiwan, the results could well be dismal and Taiwan would suffer greatly.

If there is one clear lesson from Iran’s attack, it is that the US and Japan along with Taiwan must urgently prepare to fend off a similar attack.

In the Iranian attack on Israel:

  • 170 kamikaze drones were fired; one entered Israeli territory; at least one appears to have landed in Iran;
  • 30 cruise missiles were fired; 25 were shot down outside of Israeli territory;
  • 103 out of 110 ballistic missiles were shot down; seven ballistic missile impacts were recorded on Israeli territory​ and five of them hit the Nevatim air base, damaging at least one transport plane.

Israel used its layered, mostly ground-based air defenses including Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow-2 and Arrow-3. One drone was shot down by an Israeli Sa’ar ship equipped with C-Dome, the sea-based version of Iron Dome. Israel also used its fighter jets and other aircraft to shoot down drones and cruise missiles.  

Israel’s defenses were deeply coordinated. Israel put in the air its Oron surveillance aircraft, a multi-domain, multi-sensor solution that was used to spot threats and pass target coordinates to fighter aircraft and ground based defenses.

The Israeli Air Force fies a special-mission Gulfstream G550 that serves as the platform for the military service’s Oron intelligence surveillance reconnaissance mission. Photo: Gulfstream Aerospace

Israel also used its Eitam AWACS and Shavit intelligence gathering aircraft during the attack. The “Wing of Zion” 767 aircraft, based at Nevatim, also was launched. Ostensibly it is a VIP transport for Israel’s top leaders. In reality it is a sophisticated command center in case of a nuclear attack.

Wing of Zion 767 Aircraft. Photo: Wikipedia

The US, UK, Jordan and Saudi Arabia also supported Israel against Iran’s massive attack.  US ships and aircraft shot down some 80 “objects” that were mostly drones, but US AEGIS class Arleigh Burke class destroyers also used their AWACS missiles against ballistic missile threats. Between four and seven SM-3 air defense missiles were launched. The only on-the-ground casualties were in Israel where one seven-year-old Bedouin girl was seriously injured by shrapnel and in Jordan where  reportedly four people died.

The USS Wayne E. Meyer arrives at Naval Surface Warfare Center, Port Hueneme Division. The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer carries the 100th of the Aegis weapons systems that have been delivered to the US Navy. The ship is named after Rear Admiral Wayne E. Meyer, who is known as the “father of Aegis.” Photo: Eric Parsons / US Navy

This was the first time for Arab countries to come to Israel’s defense.

The pivot of the operation outside of Israel was the US Central Command. CENTCOM coordinated the actions of all the players. While some of this coordination was improvised rather than planned far in advance, nonetheless it demonstrated the critical importance of an integrated approach to security.

This is an important, in fact a vital lesson for defending Taiwan.

There are three key findings. The first is that, if China launched a similar attack on Taiwan, Taiwan would need outside support for its defense just as Israel needed outside support to fend off the Iranian attacks.  As brilliant as Israel’s air defense system is, it would have been saturated and unable to cope without help from the US, the UK, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. 

Taiwan’s air defenses are, as far as we know, not integrated and layered like Israel’s.  Taiwan’s air defenses consist of Patriot batteries and home-grown air defense solutions, especially Sky Bow III.  Sky Bow is said to be capable of dealing with aircraft, cruise missiles and short-range tactical missiles. It fills in the gap of coverage with Patriot Pac-3,which was designed to deal with strategic threats. 

Sea Chaparral. Photo: Gen Shio – © GNU Attribution Share Alike license

Taiwan has some sea-based air defenses.  Its six Lafayette-class frigates, the best warships in Taiwan’s navy, are equipped with RIM-72C Sea Chaparral air defense missiles.  The missiles are old AIM-9 Sidewinders with very short range ( said to be three-to-four kilometers) and would not be effective against most contemporary threats. Taiwan has a project underway to upgrade the Lafayettes under the Xunlien Project. This project aims to install MK-41 vertical launch systems on the ships, which requires significant structural changes to the frigates.

The MK-41 is the same vertical launch system used on US AEGIS-equipped cruisers and destroyers, and also is used in the AEGIS Ashore system in Poland and Romania. Taiwan plans to equip the frigates with Sky Bow II or Sky Bow III missiles.

The second key finding is that Taiwan’s domestic air defenses still need upgrading, especially since its current systems would have difficulty dealing with drones and with complex saturation attacks. In particular, Taiwan would greatly benefit from Iron Dome and with air defense integration know-how. Taiwan lacks any modern combat experience in using its missile defenses and has no hands-on knowledge of how they would perform under heavy combat stress.

One immediate enhancement would be for Taiwan to get Iron Dome. The US owns two Iron Dome systems which the US Army, a particularly retarded organization when it comes to common sense and air defenses, does not want or even know what to do with.  The easy and obvious answer would be to transfer them to Taiwan.

The third finding relates to time and distance and how to handle an air attack on Taiwan.  It is quite true that the Israeli and CENTCOM air defenses were cobbled together. They probably could stand significant improvement, more automation and other steps to exploit capabilities and commonalities.

By comparison, though, the procedures for the US Indo-Pacific Command to deal with events in and around Japan and Taiwan are hardly developed at all. Hawaii-headquartered INDOPACOM cannot fight to defend Taiwan unless its systems are coordinated with Taiwan’s.

Much of this means there is a great need for a fully mature command and control system. Taiwan has long been excluded from any coordination activities and has not been involved in regional military exercises led by INDOPACOM. So far as is known, there is no planning on how to deal with a sophisticated attack on Taiwan from China. 

The US must take lessons from the Iran threat and apply them to Taiwan’s defense. Failing to do so leaves China in the catbird’s seat and renders Taiwan’s survival against any strong attack questionable. If nothing is done, even if the US should wish to help Taiwan it would be without the coordinated means to help.

Stephen Bryen served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. 

This article was first published on his Weapons and Strategy Substack and is republished with permission.

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US-Japan-Philippines trilateral gives Manila a fighting chance - Asia Times

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US President Joe Biden met with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio at a conference in an extraordinary move with significant regional repercussions.

According to the  post-summit joint statement, this first-ever multilateral discussed participation in financial development, emerging technologies, clean energy, supply chains, climate assistance and, most important, strengthening the existing relationships between the US and its two Asian security lovers.

Alongside the leaders ’ meeting, the first trilateral commerce and industry ministers ’ meeting was also held and seems to have focussed on US-Japan support for making the Philippines an upper middle-income country and combatting China ’s economic coercion.

The Peoples ‘ Liberation Army-Navy and its maritime militia continue to harass the Philippines in the South China Sea and with their increasingly hostile behavior and gray zone tactics.

The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force’s first-ever participation in the recent US-Philippines exercise in the South China Sea is also consistent with the trilateral summit’s announcement.

The US-Japan-Philippines trilateral is part of the emerging trend of  mini-contractual arrangements that have come into being in the Indo-Pacific region over the past ten years.

These include the Quad ( launched in 2007, revived in 2017 ), AUKUS ( Australia, UK, US) trilateral ( 2021 ), Colombo Security Conclave, ( initiated in 2011; revived in 2020 ), TDIO ( Trilateral Dialogue on the Indian Ocean, 2013 ), India-France-Australia Trilateral Dialogue ( 2021 ), JAI ( Japan-Australia-India trilateral, 2015 ), the 2004 Malacca Straits Patrol ( 2008 ), and Eye-in-the-Sky, among others.

This trilateral brings together the United States ( a superpower ), Japan ( a regional power ), and the Philippines ( a small power ) at a particular point of interest. This contrasts with the practice of other minilaterals, which have primarily focused on maintaining regional security balance, acting as a security provider, or establishing an issues-based local presence.

It also serves as a general trend in which rising, middle, and small powers are displaying new willingness to shoulder security responsibilities that have previously been overruled by superpowers.

Although the idea of launching a trilateral minilateral initiative is not novel, a growing sense of urgency in light of China’s hostile actions against the Philippines in the South China Sea appears to have prompted Manila, Tokyo, and Washington to take this initiative seriously.

A track two    The strategic dialogue in Tokyo in September 2022 laid the groundwork for security experts and practitioners to discuss among other things how the security triangle could be put into practice in a conflict-stricken world. ” On the ground, this cooperation, particularly in the  maritime security domain, has considerable potential.

Another emerging emerging trend is that the majority of these initiatives are directly or indirectly related to China and have a direct impact on Southeast Asian security. AUKUS, Quad, Eye in the Sky, the Malacca Patrol and JAI ( Japan, Australia, India ) are all directly linked to the region’s security, which has become an epicenter for great power competition.

China’s desire to emphasize its unrecognized maritime claims and the Philippines ‘ growing confidence in its right to defend its disputed territory has already led to a number of naval incidents. The most recent incident occurred on March 4 when four Filipino sailors were hurt when Chinese ships and Philippine ones collided in a disputed South China Sea area.

Despite the clear gap between China and the Philippines ’ naval capabilities, Manila’s actions are being driven by Marcos Jr’s  determination to carry out his obligation to defend national sovereignty.

They may also be brought on by ASEAN’s failure to address the issue ( ASEAN leaders have consistently failed to issue a joint statement on the South China Sea disputes ) and the… growing support  from the US and others around the region including Australia, India and Japan – the  other three Quad members.

All members of the Quad are working together on defense cooperation, and assistance is being offered in the form of policy formulation, capacity-building, and joint patrols. India has also provided military hardware to the Philippines, such as the  BrahMos ground missile system. Japan has been the third country to offer the most financial support, and both parties are negotiating a deal that would allow the deployment of military forces on each other’s soil.

Likewise facing maritime insecurities vis-a-vis China close to home, Japan has ramped up its defense strategies. Last year, China and Japan’s coast guards were locked in a  confrontation  in waters near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, where Chinese government ships spotted in the same area; record high.

The trilateral with Japan and the Philippines, according to the US, is yet another step in a bid to combat China’s assertive regional behavior while maintaining the strategic foundation.

The US-Japan-Philippines trilateral has a strategic advantage because it is close to potential flashpoints, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. It cannot be overlooked that several of Manila’s recently opened military installations are located close to these disputed areas.

In fact, the Camilo Osias Naval Base in Sta Ana, Cagayan, and Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan, both located at the northernmost part of Luzon, are approximately 500 kilometers from Kaoshiung, Taiwan, which some speculate could be used to supply Taiwanese forces in the event of a Chinese invasion.

However, because of the partners ‘ different priorities, transforming this trilateral into a more integrated grouping will be simpler said than done. Manila cannot be expected to conduct freedom of navigation exercises across the region or project itself as one of the region’s net security providers while the US, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines conducted their first full-scale exercise on April 7.

The viability of such minilateral arrangements depends on a number of factors, not the least of which are US domestic politics and the region’s changing geopolitical landscape. The US has upheld a rules-based order in South China Sea waters, which it defines as a global common, while flippantly acting under some leadership.

Different policies and priorities may emerge if Donald Trump is elected president right now.   That raises questions in Taiwan and Japan, and it might have the same effect on the Philippines.

More minilaterals may be in order for the Philippines and others to engage with other Asian powers in various forms in these uncertain times.

The German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance is led by Dr. Rahul Mishra as Senior Research Fellow. Thammasat University, Thailand, and Associate Professor at the  Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He tweets @rahulmishr_

Peter Brian M. Wang is in charge of the economics department at Malaysia’s National Institute of Public Administration ( INTAN ). He has recently contributed to the book “Contesting Malaysia’s Integration into the World Economy ” and has written for both domestic and international publications. ” He tweets @PBMWang

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Trump plan to devalue dollar a gift to China - Asia Times

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In a minute term, Donald Trump would generate money depreciation excellent once more.

Former US President’s aides are plotting a strategy to formally weaken the dollar to benefit producers, according to telegraphs from the former US President. As Politico accounts, for instance, Trumpworld is “actively debating ” an Argentina-like hinge at the urging of officials like Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s past international business consultant.

A trip like this might benefit China more in the long run by placing” America second.”

Buenos Aires would be in charge of the Group of Seven business if depreciation were a prosperity strategy. Turkey and Zimbabwe may become rising. As Asia’s largest economy, Indonesia may be giving China a move for its money.

The US trying to use this strategy may put more pressure on inflation and put the dollar at risk of losing its status as a reserve currency. The Federal Reserve’s monetary science might change as Trump’s plans for 60 % tax on all Chinese goods and 100 % levies on some auto goods coincide with this move.

At the moment, of course, it ’s the dollar’s relentless strength that ’s turning heads. Eastern currencies are neither at, or falling underneath, key trading levels.

The Chinese renminbi, South Korean won, American dollar, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit all experience downward force. Authorities in the West are monitoring changes in the value of the Jewish shekel, the Polish zloty, the North American rand, and other financial units.

If Trump retakes the office and devalues the buck, things will get worse. For a self-inflicted error would give Xi Jinping one of his most important goals in ways that the Chinese president could never have imagined.

Team Xi has consistently made significant and regular progress toward replacing the dollars as the economic system’s statement since 2016.

That year, Beijing secured a spot in the International Monetary Fund ’s “special drawing-rights ” program, putting the yuan into the globe’s most exclusive currency club along with the dollar, euro, yen and pound.

According to economic messaging service SWIFT, the yuan surpassed the renminbi as the money with the fourth-largest discuss in global payments in 2023.   It furthermore overtook the buck as China ’s most used cross-border financial system, a second.

China ’s renminbi is gaining international momentum. Photo: Twitter Screengrab

Trump’s executive of a weaker money would significantly improve the method. That had significantly lower Americans ‘ confidence in US Treasury securities, which are a fundamental having for central bankers around the world, while raising borrowing costs for the country.

Washington’s present ability to defy economic gravity would also be hampered by purposeful dollar devaluation. Thanks to the dollar’s supply money status, the US enjoys any number of unique benefits.

This “exorbitant privilege, ” as 1960s French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing famously called it, allows Washington to live far beyond its means.

All this explains why the dollar continues to rise even as Washington ’s national debt approaches US$ 35 trillion.   The money is up 9 points. Compared to the yen, the yen has fallen to 6 %, and the euro is only at 4 %.

Certainly that President Joe Biden’s White House has n’t imperiled faith in the money. Along with ongoing debt accumulation, Team Biden’s determination to thaw portions of Russia’s forex reserves over its Ukraine war crossed a line with some international investors.

According to scholar Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Asset Management, “exceptional activities ” — including restrictions imposed by the US and its supporters against Moscow — could lead to fewer countries being willing to hold foreign currency.

Billionaire Ray Dalio, chairman of Bridgewater Associates, agrees that the price of such techniques is that “there’s less of an opportunity to buy” US Treasury assets.

The International Monetary Fund threw an unusually harsh slam at American policymakers on Tuesday ( April 16 ) over continued fiscal misadventures.

The United States ‘ excellent recent performance is undoubtedly outstanding and a significant contributor to global growth, according to the IMF. “ But it reflects robust demand elements as well, including a  governmental stance  that is out of range with long-term fiscal sustainability. ”

The IMF hit Washington ’s reckless impulses, warning they risk exacerbating prices and putting at risk the longer-term macroeconomic stability of the world’s biggest business. “Something will have to offer, ” the IMF concluded.

On top of Covid-19 signal, the Trump era has rolled out huge investments in clean energy, system and various policy priorities. As debts held by the government is on track to reach$ 45, interest costs are rising. 7 trillion, or 114 % of gross domestic product ( GDP ) by 2033. That compares with 97 % at the end of 2023.

These dynamics explain why “debt debasement ” trades have been “closing in on all-time highs, ” observes Michael Hartnett, investment strategist at Bank of America.

In January, “Black Swan” writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb warned of “a loan loop. In the context of growth-debt relationships, previous US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin stated to Bloomberg that the American market is “in a horrible spot.”

However, that was when the market had anticipated a year-long simplicity of up to seven. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s team is now on hold due to inflation changes. In March, the consumer price index rose at a worse-than-forecast  3. 5 % annual charge.

At a time when OPEC is determined to continue cutting output, Iran’s assault on Israel and the possibility of retribution are now on the rise.

Middle Eastern conflicts could cause commodities prices to rise even further.

“Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine … the world has now moved into an inflationary boom, ” says Louis Gave, economist at Gavekal Dragonomics. Holding US bucks and US bonds may be expensive for traders in common and risky for investors from unfair nations during this inflationary growth. ”

Gave continues,” sure enough, the gold price has increased by a third since the war of Ukraine, and long-dated US bonds have decreased by a next.” This is intriguing because the two property lessons essentially marched in unison with one another for years prior to the invasion of Ukraine. However, in a way that US Treasuries have failed to perform, golden has acted as a collection diversifier in the past two years in a way that power has done. Will the events of the weekend [Iran’s bombing of Israel ] change any of this? ”

Enter Trump’s devaluation gambit. No doubt such an idea would get extreme pushback from US institutions, including the Treasury, Fed and the Department of State.

The first Trump administration argued that boosting American exports would require engineering a weaker dollar. In July 2019, Larry Kudlow, then-director of the National Economic Council, told CNBC that “just in the past week, we had a meeting with the president and the economic principles and we have ruled out any currency intervention. Money is being drawn from all over the world because of the steady, trustworthy dollar. ”

That same month, Trump lashed out at China and Europe for, in his view, playing a “big currency manipulation game ” and “pumping money into their system ” to undermine American workers.

Trump argued at the time that Washington should use the same strategy, or it should continue to be the “dummies” who sit back and watch as other nations play their games. ”

Given the concern that Trump might get his way, the dollar dropped at the time. It was plausible, considering Lighthizer had Trump’s ear, along with advisor Peter Navarro, an economist advocating protectionist policies.

All of this led to then-US finance minister Steven Mnuchin declaring:“ I am not going to advocate a weak dollar policy in my immediate capacity as the Treasury Secretary. ”

An argument can be made today that a dollar that is constantly overvalued has costs.

Economist Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens ’ College, Cambridge, tells Bloomberg that “authorities are a little bit frozen around the world as to how do you react to a generalized dollar strengthening? How do you respond to a US interest rate increase that is generalized? ”

El-Erian adds that “unfortunately in the past, when those two things go too far, they break something elsewhere. ”

Trump might be able to bypass the dollar’s fuel tank by effectively dumping sugar in it. Any increase in borrowing costs would significantly increase Washington’s burden on creditors and result in less money for essential services. And investments aimed at increasing innovation and productivity.

If Trump has his way, the dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency may be over. Image: Twitter / Screengrab

As China, Japan, and developing Asia battle it out to cap exchange rates, it would also lead to the biggest currency war in history. First, Tokyo, Beijing and other top foreign holders of US debt would reduce their exposure. The race to front-run dollar sales would see Asian central banks potentially dumping$ 3 trillion-plus worth of US Treasuries.

A dollar devaluation would warp incentives for the US economy as it a whole, aside from the initial financial chaos and lost respect. Again, if a weak currency were a magical policy, Japan’s GDP would n’t be nearly$ 1 trillion smaller than it was a dozen years ago.

In Japan’s case, 25 years of prioritizing a weak yen over retooling growth engines undermined competitiveness. The 12 federal governments that had been in charge of the country since 1998 had little urgency to ease bureaucracy, stifle labor markets, start a startup boom, boost productivity, and empower women. And it  took the onus off corporate CEOs to restructure, innovate and take risks.

A Trump 2 A 0 presidency could set the US on a similar path to mediocrity. It might live up to his dream by bringing the US back to 1985, a time when top-down tariffs could have a significant impact on the economy. The same was true of sharp exchange-rate shifts.

Take the events of 1985 at New York’s Plaza Hotel, which Trump once famously owned. The US bulldozed then-rival Japan and Europe in the so-called” Plaza Accord” to weaken the dollar, boost the yen, and give Washington something close to the zero-sum benefits Trump claims should be taking.

In the 40 years since, China replaced Japan as the target of Trump’s ire. When Trump complained during his 2017-2021 presidency that China was “raping ” US workers, it echoed his anti-Japan tirades of the 1980s. Additionally, there is no longer the economic system Trump wants to use for time travel.

Top economic powers could control the world’s currency markets in 1985 and decisively alter trajectories. Today, China has ample ways to navigate around Washington ’s policies, meaning if Trump wins in November and seeks to devalue the dollar it would be a policy mishap of epic proportions.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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US Navy can't hide its flagging fleet - Asia Times

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The US Navy is reportedly trying to hide its problems from the public eye and attention from shipping delays and setbacks that threaten a number of crucial capabilities.

The US Navy canceled deliver presentations at its biggest US industry show earlier this month in Washington, according to Politico, breaking with history.

A devastating inside report revealed the inability of the support and its business partners to achieve the expected improvement on two sub-programmes, an aircraft carrier, and a novel class of frigates.

The best captain and civilian director of the US Navy, according to Polititico, have not responded to inquiries about the document, which highlights 11 years of delays across the damaged programs.

The report claims that the difficulties in so many programs that are crucial to how the US projects strength across the globe are virtually unheard and are the result of decades of underinvestment in ships while relying on a declining range of shipbuilders to create the US ship.

In specific, the US Navy faces difficulties in its Constellation-class fleet system based on the FREMM layout used by several German navies. According to the Politico report, the US Navy wants to keep 85 % of the submarine as-is and steer clear of introducing to numerous new technologies to lower costs and risks.

The US Navy is still making changes, according to the report, which was produced at a Wisconsin port and stock just 15 % of its unique design with the factory. The US Navy is reportedly working to finish plans this month, but the constant changes have caused delays and costs to rise.

According to Politico, the Pentagon is investing billions to modernize factories and make sure that reliable supply chains are maintained. It points out, however, that politicians are expected to discuss the problem with US Navy copper when they visit Capitol Hill to protect their budget plan and that politicians have criticized the US Navy’s plans to grow the ships as they have been doing so.

Multiple naval capabilities, ranging from power forecast to nuclear deterrence and area warfare, may be affected by the manufacturing woes.

The US’s marine battle ship fleet is facing a significant capacity space, according to Asia Times ‘ report from this month. America’s forward presence and military warfare capabilities have been hampered by aging ships, long-range disagreement weapons, and inaction regarding fleet modernization.

Artist’s vision of the delayed Constellation-class ship presently under construction in Wisconsin. Photo: Naval Technology

Officials from the US Marine Corps ( USMC) have made comments in the press about how many in-service amphibious ships are not operationally ready as a result of maintenance and repair work.

In that relationship, the US Navy has proposed to cancel three Whidbey-class marine port getting ships in its 2024 budget, citing their impoverished condition despite never reaching the end of their planned 40-year lifespan.

However, the US Navy is legally required to maintain a fleet of 31 amphibious warfare ships and cannot decommission older ships without replacing them. As a result, the navy has been unable to satisfactorily respond to requests from regional combat commanders to maintain a forward presence or deal with emergencies.

Delays in the US carrier program, meanwhile, could further strain the overstretched US carrier fleet, opening gaps in US power projection capabilities.

The US naval shipbuilding base may experience further damage as a result of the next Gerard R Ford supercarrier’s delays until September 2029, according to Asia Times, which will cause labor shortages.

Due to their complementary technologies, including nuclear propulsion, this delay may also have an impact on the US nuclear submarine industry.

Moreover, long carrier production gaps will shrink the US Navy’s 11 already-overstretched carriers. The US Navy can only keep two out of an ideal three carriers forward-deployed indefinitely due to the definite lifespan of their nuclear cores.

Due to delays in the US carrier program, the US’s sea-based nuclear deterrent may also suffer. The loss of nuclear-propulsion know-how, combined with other factors, may result in fewer nuclear ballistic missile submarines ( SSBN ) for strategic deterrence.

This month, Asia Times noted that the US might operate even fewer SSBNs due to a long-term disarmament policy, rising costs and improvements in anti-submarine sensor technology.

Each new generation of SSBNs has 40 % fewer ships than the previous one, according to US nuclear disarmament policy, and the high cost of deploying a few warheads on a pricey system could result in the US operating only seven SSBNs by 2060.

The USS John Warner, a nuclear-powered submarine. Source: US Navy

It seems unlikely that a surge in production of these general-purpose warships will match China’s fleet numbers, despite the US Navy’s efforts to increase fleet numbers by reintroducing frigates into its force mix.

The US plans to increase production of Constellation-class frigates from two ships at one shipyard annually to two shipyards, according to Asia Times ‘ report from May 2023. The US Navy initially set out to acquire 20 ships, but it now feels like adding a second shipyard will result in 40 more ships in the next ten years, with around 50 being the ideal number.

However, that may be a tall order given the numerical disparity between the US Navy and China ’s People’s Liberation Army-Navy ( PLA-N), the world’s largest in ship numbers.

With 370 ships as of October 2023, the PLA-N fleet is expected to grow to 400 by 2025 and 440 by 2030, making the US plan for 280 ships by 2027 and 363 ships by 2045 small in comparison.

China’s naval shipbuilding prowess are a result of its civil-military fusion strategy, which incorporates its position as the largest shipbuilder in the world into the production of warships.

Sadly, the majority of naval victories have been won by more sophisticated fleets than by technological advancement.

While the US has considered outsourcing the construction of naval ships to allies and partners, the strategy faces legal and strategic challenges.

The US Navy is considering using Japan’s shipyards for maintenance, repair, and overhaul ( MRO ) tasks in a July 2023 Real Clear Defense article, according to Patrick Dennan, in order to reduce service backlogs in the US. He mentions that the concept could be applied to South Korea, Singapore and the Philippines.

In line with those rumors, the Korea Herald reported in February 2024 that US Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro visited the shipyards of HD Hyundai Heavy Industries ( HD HHI ) and Hanwha Ocean to check their naval shipbuilding capabilities in order to support the US Navy’s fleet in Asia. Additionally, the Korea Herald mentions that HD HHI applied for a Master Ship Repair Agreement in 2023 to be eligible for MRO jobs on US Navy ships.

The US Navy may seek help from South Korean shipbuilders. Image: X Screengrab

However, the protectionist 1920 Jones Act mandates that American crews and American staff work together and perform all US warship and merchant ship maintenance in the US.

In a March 2024 Defense News article, Matthew Paxton contends that outsourcing US naval shipbuilding would further weaken and ultimately devalue US sovereignty.

According to Paxton, many of the resources required to boost US naval shipbuilding are already present in the US. He claims that adopting a naval shipbuilding strategy that makes use of US best commercial shipbuilding practices and economies of scale would be the best course of action.  

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