The 24 million Syria who lived and suffered mostly under his terrible concept will also be affected by President Bashar Assad’s fall. Over the frontier in Lebanon, the effect will be felt, too.
Hezbollah, Assad’s ally, was previously suffering from an Israel issue that had already weakened its capabilities and decimated its management, and the collapse of Assad’s authorities is yet another blow to its Syrian allies. However, some people in Lebanon did remain cheering, not the least of the 1.5 million Syrian refugees who fled Syria to avoid Assad and a 13-year civil war.
As a specialist on Lebanon’s history and culture, I anticipate that Syria’s impact will have an impact. The two places ‘ present histories are intertwined, and throughout its 54-year law, the Assad community has intervened in Lebanon several times – mostly to the expense of its people, its business and its security.
Hezbollah and Assad: A bilateral relationship
Hezbollah has benefited greatly from the Arab regime’s solid support since its creation in the early 1980s. There were definitely times of tension between the two, most prominently in the midst of the Syrian civil conflict. However, Hezbollah has been able to rely on Syria for weapons, education, and quick area access to Iran overall.
And this design was mutual. Hezbollah fighters entered Syria to boost the authorities when Assad’s law was challenged in 2011 and the nation erupted into civil war.
However, Hezbollah has seen its fortunes suffer recently as it has grown to become the most effective military force in Lebanon. The team was forced to accept a ceasefire agreement that includes a path toward disarmament as a result of the current conflict with Israel.
However, Syrian support for Hezbollah has shifted significantly, with empty calls for the group to stop its military activities.
The team’s battle with Israel cost the life of about 3, 700 people in Lebanon, and about 1.2 million Syrian – about one-fifth of the population – were internally displaced from their homes. However, the financial loss for Lebanon is estimated in the billions of dollars.
Iran, Assad and Hezbollah square
It is no accident that the new rebel progress that led to Assad’s ouster happened the day after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was signed. Hezbollah troops were depleted, and many of their soldiers were pulled out of Syria to strengthen Lebanon’s southwestern border.
Arab separatists chose this opportunity because they were aware that Iran was also strained by the Israel-Hezbollah conflict to support Assad. The ripple effect has resulted in the unfolding of Iran’s” shaft of weight”. Surely, Tehran has lost its strong hold over Syria and Lebanon.
It is fitting that Assad’s drop coincides with the possible end of both Syria’s civil war and the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah ally because it was the initial stage of the civil war that established the three-way marriage.
Syria was the site of the Arab Spring, a string of pro-democracy and individual rights demonstrations that started in Tunisia in 2011. Anti-Assad demonstrations broke out in Daraa and quickly spread to big cities such as Syria, Hama and the capital, Damascus.
The Arab state reacted brutally, ordering soldiers to fire at the demonstrators, detaining and torturing thousands of men and boys, and did so with cruelty.
International uproar followed. However, with the assistance of Iran and Hezbollah, the Arab state remained in place. In reality, in addition to Hezbollah’s soldiers, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps was likewise advising Assad and fighting alongside his defense against the Arab people.
For Tehran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, this contributed to the” Iranization” of the region, which included the spread of the Iranian Revolution ideology and the transformation of Syria and Lebanon into Shia states.
Syria is largely Sunni Muslim. It was ruled by an Syrian majority, a party that practiced a tree of Shia Islam, under the Assad home. Hezbollah, as a Shia extremist group, swore allegiance to Iran’s high leader in its 1985 statement.
Another unified force between the three was the Arab reason. The post-1979 innovative Iran philosophy of “death to Israel” is a sentiment shared by the Assad government and Hezbollah soldiers. Assad may have been less vocal about it, particularly as he attempted to negotiate with Israel over the occupied Golan Heights.
Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah under the leadership of Assad were not just united by militancy and their desire to rule the area. They even shared financial goals, and they have benefited from the trafficking of illegal drugs, particularly Captagon, an amphetamine-type drug that is widely produced in Syria under the guise of Assad and Iran. At a time when global sanctions were ensnapping, the drug offered a viable and significant source of income.
Hezbollah and its power of Lebanon’s airports and seaports have helped the drug became extensively available in the Gulf state. The Arab world was actually a threat from its very addictive nature, and Assad used it to strain Saudi Arabia into calling for Syria’s inclusion in the Arab League in 2023. In return, the Syrian government agreed to transfer its drug trafficking abroad.
Assad’s tradition
With Hezbollah’s fight in Lebanon and the fall of the Syrian regime, the” Iranization” of the area is, at the very least, stalled. However, 54 years of Assad home law in Syria has left a long road of death in neighboring Lebanon.
More than 25, 000 soldiers were sent by Syria over the border in June 1976 to put an end to the Syrian civil conflict. Its existence was supposed to be momentary, but it was extended for over four years.
By the time the Syrian civil war ended in 1991, Syria was in complete control of both Lebanon’s domestic and international politics. Serious human rights breaches were reported, including kidnappings, improper punishments, abuse and the killings of political figures and editors.
Rafik Hariri, the leader of Lebanon’s political elite, was killed in a deadly attack in February 2005 that involved Assad and top Palestinian officials in large numbers.
The shooting sparked the Cedar Revolution, in which hundreds of thousands of Palestinian residents gathered in the streets to demand the Syrian causes ‘ immediate withdrawal.
Although Syrian troops left Lebanon, the Palestinian government continued to interfere in the country’s elections through Hezbollah, which evolved into a political-military firm and entered the authorities in 2008.
From that point onward, Hezbollah would block any decision that did not serve Syria’s and Iran’s interests. For instance, Hezbollah and its allies vetoed any candidate for president who opposed the Syrian regime, a move that caused Lebanon to experience a protracted presidential lull.
An uncertain future
While Hezbollah may continue to operate within Lebanon and under Iran’s umbrella, Assad’s fall means it is deprived of its supply route.
Without Syria, Hezbollah has no quick access to Iran’s fighters and weapons – and the newly signed ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel reaffirms Lebanon’s commitment to a UN resolution calling for Hezbollah’s disarmament.
And while it’s not yet clear what the new Syria will look like, at least the populations of Lebanon and Syria, both of whom have endured decades of brutal rule and Hezbollah’s abuse, can rejoice at the removal of the man who caused so much of the suffering.
At Dickinson College, Mireille Rebeiz is chair of Middle East Studies and associate professor of Francophone and Women’s, Gender, and Sexuality Studies.
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