As China and the Philippines shift toward clear armed conflict over a growing number of contested sea characteristics, the South China Sea disputes pitting China against rival South Asian state have entered a dangerous new stage.
However, as the United States and its allies patrol the contested waters, causing Beijing to complain that Americans purposefully destabilize an already strained maritime theater that includes Taiwan, the geopolitical stakes are skyrocketing.
The most recent Association of Southeast Asian ( ASEAN ) Summit in Laos, however, was largely silent on the troubling nature of the disputes and, specifically, the China-related plight of bloc members like the Philippines. Despite releasing a protracted chairman’s statement, ASEAN was unable to reach a consensus on practical solutions to the looming crisis.
Laos, a vital trading and investment companion of China, mostly dictated the conditions and topics of the tournament’s discussions. Chinese Premier Li Qiang unflinchingly insisted in his intervention that China has always adhered to “international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS).”
Li added that China “appreciated the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea ( DOC), opted for dialogue and conversation with nations directly impacted by disputes, and earnestly engaged in nautical participation.”
Li argued that” there are no obstacles either to freedom of navigation or overflight in the South China Sea” despite China’s increasing militarization of disputed territory features, regular naval training, and the implementation of fleet of military and coast guard arteries across the hotly disputed maritime area.
ASEAN’s Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn, a Thai nationwide, reinforced China’s tale by insisting that conversations over a South China Sea Code of Conduct have been moving in the right direction. ” It’s not static, it’s not standstill”, he said.  ,
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. became the first local leader to formally express dissatisfaction with the local coalition’s stance on China after being formally frustrated by ASEAN’s perceived discord and silence.
” We continue to be subjected to harassment and intimidation”, the Filipino president said in a not-so-veiled condemnation of China. Parties may be sincere in their willingness to really manage the differences and lessen tensions, he said. Additionally, Marcos Jr. criticized ASEAN for its chelonian discussions of a South China Sea Code of Conduct.
” There should be more urgency in the pace of the negotiations of the ASEAN-China code of conduct”, Marcos continued, underscoring how” ]even ] the definition of a concept as basic as’ self-restraint’ does not yet enjoy consensus”.
The leader of the Philippines retaliated against China’s strategy of concentrating entirely on regional bilateral trade and investment, saying that “you don’t separate economic cooperation from political security.”
In response, China and its explicit local proxies, especially Laos and Cambodia, have sought to present the Philippines as a” nuisance” acting at the urging of its United States alliance.
There is a certain expectation that the sea disputes may receive more attention in 2025 as Malaysia, another South China Sea claimant nation that has struggled with Taiwanese intimidation, assumes the role of ASEAN’s circular president next year.
Core ASEAN nations like Indonesia have expressed similar views on the growing need to maintain the South China Sea disputes more efficiently despite the Philippines being the only local condition that is now publicly criticizing and vehemently opposing China’s rising sea confidence.
China, for its part, has made the most of the Philippines ‘ ostensible corporate quiet within ASEAN.
” Manila, under the present administration, that made itself a agitator in the region, putting up obstacles to cooperation and prosperity, and adding risks of bloc confrontation that benefits no one and only serves the imperial interests of physical powers”, declared China’s Communist Party-run Global Times mouthpiece, which constantly and innocently portrays the Southeast Asian nation as an British pawn.
According to Li Haidong, a professor at China Foreign Affairs University quoted in the propaganda-carrying newspaper, the Philippines is “being seriously manipulated or even controlled by the US”, and therefore, its “decision-makers can]not ] make independent decisions based on the Philippines ‘ own interests and the region’s peace and stability”.
Chinese commentators have recently tapped a startling article from the British think tank IISS, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, to raise concerns about “diplomatic decoupling” in the South China Sea. It underscored how fellow ASEAN states , “feel the Philippines has drifted too far from China and been overly belligerent]under Marcos Jr’s administration ]”.
In response, the often-fiery spokesman of the Philippine Coast Guard, Commodore Jay Tarriela, argued that” The Philippines stands as the sole ASEAN member actively denouncing China’s illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions in the South China Sea”.
Our stance is not just a fight for our rights in the West Philippine Sea; it is a declaration of our commitment to upholding the law, protecting the marine environment, and safeguarding the livelihoods of local fishermen. Beijing must end its claim that we are merely Washington’s pawns, Tarriela wrote on X.
In reality, however, core ASEAN states have expressed concern about the South China Sea disputes, albeit in less vigorous terms as Manila. ” The South China Sea is a live and immediate issue, with real risks of an accident spiraling into conflict”, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong told fellow leaders during this month’s ASEAN Summit.
Most ASEAN states, in contrast to the Philippines and Singapore, are generally more circumspect in their statements on the South China Sea disputes and lack strong military ties with the US. The situation in the area is generally stable, according to Malaysia’s navy chief.
” It is true that]Chinese Coast Guard ] vessels are present]in Malaysian waters], but they do not engage aggressively with us. When our ships meet them, their responses have been positive, they do not act aggressively”, Royal Malaysian Navy chief , Admiral Datuk Zulhelmy Ithnain , told reporters.
Despite China’s vehement opposition, these diplomatic statements conceal the fact that Malaysia has actively pursued unilateral oil exploration activities in adjacent waters. Malaysia also filed a nine-dash line claim at the UN in the area in the form of an extended continual shelf claim in 2019.
When Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim made the suggestion of possible joint resource development agreements with China in the South China Sea, he was met with nationalistic criticism at home last year, underscoring a more assertive foreign policy.
When China recently tried to pressure Malaysia against continuing its energy exploration activities in the waters, Malaysia’s foreign ministry indirectly criticized the Asian power for “intentionally provocative, unnecessarily hostile]actions ]”  , and made it clear that Putrajaya is determined to “operate in our waters and secure economic advantage, including drilling for oil in our territory” despite external opposition.
Meanwhile, the Philippines and Vietnam have been quietly building a united front in the sea’s disputed waters. The two ASEAN members are known to be pursuing closer military ties and recently conducted their first joint training as a joint coast guard in the South China Sea.
Crucially, they are also looking into maritime border delimitation agreements in the conflict areas, laying the groundwork for a de facto code of conduct among Southeast Asian claimant states that is exclusive to China.
The two parties have also shown their support at various crucial times, including when the Philippines sued China for maritime disputes in an international arbitration at The Hague and, most recently, when Chinese maritime forces harassed a group of Vietnamese fishermen.
Indonesia, the de facto leader in ASEAN, has also pushed for growing maritime security coordination among regional states. The sprawling Southeast Asian nation’s sprawl has been at odds with China for its part because of overlapping claims made in the Natuna Islands, which China also claims in its nine-dash line map.
Indonesia, which is expected to take a more assertive foreign policy stance under the newly installed Prabowo Subianto administration, has also repeatedly emphasized the need to preserve” ASEAN centrality” and, accordingly, pushed for more regularized joint military activities with regional states.
Indonesia hosted the first all-ASEAN naval drills ever last year, which could serve as a model for more institutionalized and consequential naval drills in key Southeast Asian nations in the future.
Overall, ASEAN states may not speak the same language or adopt a similar position on China’s assertiveness and aggression at sea, but core members are agreeing that joint efforts to manage the disputes before they escalate into armed conflict.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian