Vietnam’s president is a more dangerous place for what is primarily a royal position. After taking over from his father Nguyen Xuan Phuc only over a year ago, Vo Van Thuong is the next leader in a row to not hold office for a whole term.
Thuong resigned on Wednesday, which the Central Committee of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam ( CPV ) accepted the same day. The group said in a speech that Thuong’s “violations and inadequacies” had “left a negative mark on the popularity of the Communist Party”, without elaborating on his alleged mistakes.
In response to an investigation into alleged foul play at real estate developer Phuc Son, the ministry of public security ( MPS) and a heated anti-bribery campaign, known locally as “blazing furnace,” he resigned.
A hundred or more officials have been arrested in connection with the Phuc Son investigation on corruption charges, including those from Quang Ngai Province where Thuong served as celebration director between 2011 and 2014, as a result of Thuong’s arrest. Thuong’s friends are apparently among the recipients of Phuc Son’s money.
A who’s who of candidates are running for the position of public director of the CPV, which is up for election in 2026, are Thuong’s possible alternatives. Only those who have previously served a full name in the Politburo are available for the president, as with the general secretary place.
Just five candidates, including existing General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Chairman of the National Assembly Vuong Dinh Hue, Cabinet Secretary To Lam, Permanent Secretary of the CPV Secretariat, and CPV Central Organization Commission Head Truong Thi Mai, are now eligible under the current regulations.
Trong, who deliberately ceded his seat at the 2021 Party Congress while continuing to be the general secretary, is unlikely to win the presidency. Chinh and Hue now have excellent positions within the government’s “big four” of public minister, leader, prime minister and president of the National Assembly.
There’s no way to say that To Lam wo n’t be vying for the position this time around, even though he reportedly removed himself as a candidate during discussions about replacing Phuc in 2023.
In exchange for the largely ceremonial position of president, the social real may not be so black and white. On paper, it might seem counterintuitive to give up control of the incredibly powerful Ministry of Public Security, which is a perfect location to target rivals and avoid ramifications from his own crises.
Former president Tran Dai Quang, Lam’s successor at MPS, managed to maintain significant control over the department yet after assuming the presidency. If Lam decides the position may be a important stepping stone to becoming standard secretary, it is not inconceivable that he might attempt something similar.
It’s doubtful, nevertheless, that Lam would be able to produce a bid for the presidency unopposed. Previous MPS officials already have a sizable impact over the highest levels of government, where they currently hold the prime minister’s office and about a quarter of Politburo tickets.
Some people would likely prefer Truong Thi Mai because of her career path, which has left her with a weaker power base than other potential candidates for public minister.
However, her involvement in the administration will likely depend on the actual causes of Thuong’s resignation and party support. If Thuong were just another victim of Trong’s anti-corruption plan, a sign of the CPV’s commitment to eradicate corruption at all levels of government, Mai might be able to appeal to the presidency.
The poor energy center that might otherwise support her for the position may turn into a major liability if she has reason to believe that there were social reasons for pushing Thuong out of office and that another more prominent figure in the party-state apparatus is vying for the position.
Thuong’s resignation is the latest event to compound substantial turmoil within Vietnam’s senior leadership. In 2023 alone, a president and two deputy prime ministers fell to corruption investigations, in addition to dozens of less senior officials.
Trong, who will be 81 by the next Party Congress in 2026 and is widely anticipated to step down from his position, is facing a disorderly and contentious transition as a result.
Intra-party rivalry could be a source of political instability and more falls from grace in the run-up to 2026 as another president falls and the competition for the position rises.
Ian Hollinger is a freelance journalist with a presence in Phnom Penh.