Several stalwarts of the main opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) say the same thing — being judged to have plotted to subvert the constitutional monarchy will only galvanise the party further.
However, some critics see otherwise and have even painted the worst-case scenario in which the MFP looks set for disintegration, with its politicians and supporters going their separate ways.
Opponents think the MFP blundered big time for trumpeting an amendment to Section 112 of the Criminal Code, otherwise known as the lese majeste law, in its election manifesto and working overtime to act upon it.
Amid the barrage of indignation and warnings of dire consequences by critics, the party came under fire for sticking to its guns and initially refusing to step back an inch, although it later explained that reforming the monarchy via amending Section 112 does not equate to an attempt to abolishing the institution.
The party also defended what it called the merits of the amendment, which, in its view, would be instrumental in preserving the monarchy.
But many believed the party’s explanation did not add up.
They pointed to what they said were several flaws in the MFP’s argument and accused the party of trying to emasculate Section 112 to such an extent that the law would be in serious danger of losing its sanctity and ability to deter wrongdoing.
For starters, critics were not convinced that substantially reducing jail terms for lese majeste violators so that they are lower than the terms specified in ordinary defamation cases protected the institution.
In a Jan 31 ruling, the Constitutional Court ruled that the MFP and Pita Limjaroenrat, while serving as its leader, tried to either change or revoke Section 112 when 44 MPs submitted a Section 112 amendment bill on March 25, 2021.
According to the court, the amendment bill formed part of the MFP’s election strategy last year and was intended to bring the monarchy into conflict with the people.
The court went on to say it also illustrated an intent to remove the monarchy, which represented a significant danger to state security.
“The election campaign calling for an amendment to the section shows the accused [the MFP and Mr Pita] had the intention to subvert the monarchy,” the court added.
The court then ordered both the MFP and Mr Pita to cease expressing opinions by speaking, writing, publishing, advertising and conveying messages by any means in pursuit of amending Section 112.
They were also prohibited from amending the section through a non-legislative process. People are free to disagree with the ruling, but those who use abusive and malicious language against the court will face legal penalties, including fines and jail terms, the court warned.
The ruling immediately cast a dark cloud over the MFP and put the spotlight on individuals thought to be waiting in the wings to use it to file a petition seeking the party’s dissolution.
If the party does meet its doom, observers feel the effects could even hit less prominent members not among the 44 MPs who submitted the Section 112 amendment bill.
They would be counted on to establish a new political outfit to continue the MFP’s legacy if the MPs and party executives with a hand in sponsoring the amendment bill are banned from politics for up to 10 years.
Disbandment could prove divisive, the observers say. It could split politicians and supporters into one group, remaining determined to push ahead with amending Section 112 and those opting to drop the bid and carry on with other key MFP policies.
Nuttaa “Bow” Mahattana, an activist and political commentator, said in a recent Facebook live session that the MFP’s line of succession was rather blurry and roping in a new bunch of politicians to take over and run a new party is easier said than done.
With every party dissolution, each successive batch of torch-bearers tends to possess less political acumen and savviness, she noted.
“The MFP needs only to look at their next crop of leaders to recognise the fact that the so-called strong hands they hold in reserve are not inexhaustible,” she said.
Heading towards a dead end
The latest push by the Move Forward Party (MFP) for military reform has gained momentum, but some observers doubt it will eventually bear fruit, particularly when the Pheu Thai Party is believed to be unwilling to step on the military’s toes.
Wiroj: ‘Business not military’s job’
In the latest move, the main opposition party is homing in on military-run businesses, which are alleged to have long been the sources of wealth for armed forces generals.
According to MFP list MP Bencha Saengchantra, who proposed the setting up of an ad-hoc committee to look into military-operated businesses, the military has under its control about 7.5 million rai of state land, some of which has been turned into boxing stadiums, golf courses, racecourses and military housing projects.
In addition to 150 petrol stations, 74 golf courses and 50 hotels, other sources of income include 205 radio and television frequencies leased out to private broadcasters through Royal Thai Army Radio and Television, also known as TV5 HD, which earns at least 1 billion baht per year in digital TV network lease fees alone.
There are also some personnel who set up companies to undertake military projects and generals being appointed to serve on the board of 56 state enterprises despite the work not being aligned with their areas of expertise, according to the MP.
“So it’s time to transfer these businesses to other state agencies,” Ms Bencha said as she proposed setting up a committee to delve into military-owned businesses in order to ensure that the billions the military earns from them are reallocated to benefit the country as a whole.
MFP list-MP Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn said pursuing business activities is not the military’s job and has become a source of unchecked income for many generals.
It would be in the best interests of the people for a panel to be set up to scrutinise these commercial operations rather than allowing them to remain under military control, according to the MP.
The House of Representatives jumped on board by appointing a special panel to study the transfer and management of several businesses under the military’s control to other state agencies.
Comprising 25 members, the panel includes Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, former leader of the now-defunct Future Forward Party, a precursor to the MFP, and Jirayu Houngsub, a Pheu Thai member who currently serves as the Defence Ministry spokesman.
On the radar of the special committee are said to be the Sattahip Electricity Authority (SEA), currently operated by the Royal Thai Navy, and Kantarat Golf Course, owned and operated by the Royal Thai Air Force.
The SEA, which currently serves all five tambons in Chon Buri’s Sattahip district, was placed under the navy’s control eight decades ago when these areas were less developed.
With them now home to tourist attractions, housing estates, condominiums and hotels, control should be handed over to the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) for more efficient management and infrastructure development to support growing energy demands in the area.
As for the Kantarat Golf Course, widely known as Sanam Ngu (field of snakes), the air force has apparently agreed to give up the property to the government so the land can be developed for the benefit of the public.
However, political observers are sceptical regarding the feasibility of the MFP’s push for changes without support from Pheu Thai. They believe the ruling party is unlikely to do anything to interfere in military affairs.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, told the Bangkok Post that the Pheu Thai Party has no interest in armed forces’ businesses because challenging the status quo is a risky gambit.
According to the observer, Pheu Thai’s desire to retain power means the party is unlikely to confront the military or pursue structural changes.
“Any significant changes could jeopardise Thaksin’s chances of being released [from imprisonment],” he said.
The analyst was referring to the early release of Thaksin Shinawatra, the alleged de facto leader of the ruling party, who is set to be freed on parole this weekend.
After 15 years as a fugitive living overseas, Thaksin returned to Thailand on Aug 22, last year. The Supreme Court ordered he be jailed for eight-years for previous and finalised legal cases on the same day.
During his first night at Bangkok Remand Prison, doctors decided he should be transferred to the Police General Hospital because of the serious nature of his illnesses.
His eight-year term was subsequently reduced to one year by royal clemency.
Thaksin, 74, met parole criteria — being over 70 years old, suffering from serious illnesses and having served at least six months of his one-year prison term, according to Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong, who confirmed the release.
Thaksin was among 930 inmates whose release was approved by a parole committee.
According to Mr Thanaporn, the MFP’s dreams of military reform will remain unfulfilled as long as Pheu Thai retains power. The only path to realising these structural changes is for the MFP to win big in the next election, he noted.