The success of the Islamic rebellion that ousted Bashar al-Assad’s regime was a result of both the strength of   and Syria’s own troops and the unwillingness of supporters Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia to lend assistance in a time of need.
A decade ago, those three friends aided Assad in fending off an armed rebellion by a diverse group of rebels that emerged from the Arab Spring legal protests that had swept across the Middle East. Finally and cruelly drove military Syrian rebels into a corridor in the country’s far west with the help of Russian air force and Syrian ground forces supported by Iran.
When it comes to the present, only one of those friends was able to assist Assad in thwarting the most recent rebel battle. However, they simply offered a limited amount of assistance; it was too much, far too late.
- Iran, which heads what it had called a local” Axis of Weight” but which is now engaged in a proxy conflict with Israel, had just been bruised by Israeli jet problems. Tehran informed Assad that it would only fly some drones and missiles to the Arab government to protect the country’s leader.
- Last Friday ( December 6), Hezbollah sent only two “advisors” to Damascus and Homs, with just two of them being killed in a number of attacks by Israeli-permanent arms and its military bombarded throughout southern Lebanon and Beirut. Homs Saturday was immediately taken by the rebels, who subsequently quickly moved on to the funds.
- Despite having two Russian military installations, Russia, its troops, who were focusing solely on thwarting the Ukrainian resistance, refused to support Assad. Only the insurgent rude, according to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, was bad. Lavrov, who was speaking at a meeting in Qatar with representatives from Turkey and Iran looking to find ways to put an end to the Syrian conflict, said,” It’s illegal to allow the criminal group to take control of territory.”
The Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a think tank based in Berlin, wrote that Damascus was surprised by new improvements made by armed parties in northern Syria. However, the failure of Bashar al-Assad’s plan is easily explained by its friends: Iran and Hezbollah have suffered harm from the issue with Israel, while Russia is preoccupied with its conflict in Ukraine.
And what of the Palestinian army? The majority of Syria’s population, which is made up of Sunni Muslims, is essentially a poorly equipped force, with many members from that ethnic group having fought and been repeatedly persecuted by him. As insurgents advanced beginning late last month, Arab defense units disintegrated, leaving the towns of Aleppo, Hamas and Homs and, ultimately, Damascus defenseless.
According to analysts, Palestinian society in general and military morale in particular have been affected by ongoing armed conflict and severe economic hardships. The Arab army is primarily made up of draftees.
” The military’s decline is a reflection of a more general decline in Palestinian state institutions”, said Jihad Yazigi, director of the Syria Report. There is a strong impression in government regions that things aren’t improving and that there aren’t any hopes for things to improve.
” The fact that the security forces melted away is a bit of a surprise, but it’s not a big surprise”, said Nathanial Hall, a scientist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. They “didn’t have the kind of confidence to face something like this,” they claimed.
In addition to his proper military support, Assad relied on domestic militias to thwart the rebel advance. In case there were need to impose sanctions against local critics, he also relied on wealthy Republican Guard units and a sizable intelligence service.
Where were the Republican Guard and where are intelligence officers then located as the insurgents advanced toward Damascus?
Syria’s home spy method had, in any case, degenerated long before the rebellion. The government no longer has control over Syria as it once did, despite the fact that the state security apparatus still has an iron fist in place. It lacks the capacity to provide stability and peace, according to Chatham House, a research academy with headquarters in London.
A coalition of various rebel organizations, the majority of which are based in northeast Syria, are the cause of this sudden change of fortunes, though some are dispersed along its deep southern and northern borders.
The Organization for the Independence of the Levant ( Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS), which is the largest, is in English. Proteomics was the team that entered Damascus. Units ‘ leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, had been recently seen walking down the steps of the large Citadel mansion in Aleppo, mobbed by followers, when HTS conquered the area last month.
Units was initially associated with al-Qaeda, which aimed to establish an Islamic conservative state in Syria. In 2017, the party left the organization. In a move to bring international compassion, if not aid, HTS has pledged not to carry out terrorist attacks outside Syria. It is still regarded by the United States and the European Union as a criminal business.
In recent years, HTS has successfully ruled Idlib province in northeast Syria. During the protracted legal battle, thousands of refugees emigrated to Lebanon and Turkey as well as the Idlib region. To replace its divisions, there were many needy recruits.
HTS’ next task will be to establish administrative dominance over the area it controls. That probably would not include southern Syria and the small areas where US forces are stationed in north Syria and close to Jordan in the south.
In the most recent campaign, which ended with the catch of Damascus, many allies participated. One of them, the Syrian Democratic Forces, is a Kurdish team sponsored by the United States. Another organization, the Arab National Army, is funded by Turkey and used to combat Kurdish hardliners in Syria who might want to aid Iraqi Kurdistan secede from Iraq.
Assad alliance Russia, on the other hand, operates a naval base on the Mediterranean coast and an infantry interior. In recent days, Russian forces were preparing for rebel attacks by deploying artillery and spaceships around its foundations.
However, in an artless statement, Iran called for” the sharp end of martial conflicts, the prevention of criminal actions, and the initiation of nationwide dialogue”. Hezbollah has remained motionless.
The US government, caught up in a democratic transition from lame-duck President Joe Biden to President-elect Donald Trump, reacted slowly to the invasion. The administration under Biden merely stated that it was” closely monitoring the remarkable events in Syria.”
Trump said in a more incisive tweet on social multimedia:” Assad is gone. He has fled his land. His keeper, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him”, he wrote. Russia and Iran are currently in a diminished state, one due to Ukraine and a poor economy, and the other due to Israel and its success in fighting.
Trump ended his remarks by saying that the United States would not become involved in any way while perhaps forgetting that he was not yet leader.