The bizarre scene of US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy huddled knee to knee in Pope Francis ‘ death has raised hopes that a so-so-elusive peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is in the works.
Whether that happens will remain to be seen. One side of the conversation is the resurrected rumors that Trump does immediately turn his attention to a “peace” alliance with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which has been long sought after.
Axios reported on April 27 that senior Trump officials are constantly consulting with both inside and outside the administration about the possibility of restarting discussions, picking up on the mistakes made during the first Trump administration’s attempts. At least one well-known expert on the North Korean nuclear programme confirmed that he had been in touch with him just regarding a possible meeting between Trump and Kim.
Trump has stated that he wants to communicate with Kim, possibly face-to-face, and that his national security staff is preparing for that scenario, according to Forbes.
Seoul’s educated political sources say this method is “at a really early stage.” A top diplomat told this poet at this time that” Washington is gearing up to do a policy overview and provide some options for North Korea.”
Wi Sung-lac, a former top official at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a former assistant to Lee Jae-myung, a leading presidential candidate, echoed these sentiments. Trump’s subsequent move would be to seek a continuation of talks with North Korea, he predicted.
According to Professor Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University, a renowned scientist of North Korea based in South Korea, the main motivating factor for North Korea to continue discussions will be gaining US understanding of its reputation as a nuclear weapons position. According to the Axios record, several US experts agree that Pyongyang is not interested in holding any meetings aimed at denuclearizing the nation, Lankov claims.
The chances of a deal that leaves North Korea’s nuclear arsenal mostly alive may be improved by US conversations with Iran, which restore the more limited objectives of the contract that were reached under the Barack Obama administration but were later dismantled by Trump. A fresh agreement with Iran that merely restricts its uranium enrichment might indicate that Trump is ready to take much more constrained objectives in his deal-making.
A joyous North Korean government may use the time to its advantage after supporting Russia’s battle efforts in Ukraine. According to Lankov, who was trained in the Soviet Union,” they may try to talk to Trump.” They won’t do it, though, but they aren’t anxious.
A triumphant Vladimir Putin might yet pleasant and encourage this conference, argued Moon Chung-in, a well-known progressive thinker on international policy. Putin can play a very significant cooperation position with North Korea, Moon just stated to this author. In contrast to China, he said,” Russia has been more vocal about accepting North Korea as a nuclear arms position.”
Tae Yong-ho, a previous North Korean diplomat who defected in 2016 and served as a representative for a Seoul city in the South’s National Assembly from 2020 to 2024, thinks there might be a multilateral meeting.
A multilateral conference may be possible, Tae, who currently leads the national advisory percentage on unification, told this writer in Seoul.” If Putin ends the war and wants to increase the status of Kim Jong Un, next.
Western diplomats acknowledge that this is feasible, but they view it as unrealistic at this time.
How much of a deal does North Korea want?
Trump’s desire to rekindle his search for a major deal with Kim is reflected in his frequent and glowing comments about his friendship with the North Korean dictator. However, many analysts, including this writer, have questioned whether Kim is still interested in making a point where his attempt to win international recognition and legitimacy was clearly unsuccessful.
Kim last time around experienced a lot of pressure from a troubled, isolated economy that was being supported by China and Russia. The Bank of Korea claims that the sanctions have been effectively lifted, and that the North Korean economy is expanding.
According to Lankov, Chinese pipelines to North Korea bring in oil and other important imports, and Russians provide energy, fertilizer, and foodstuffs in exchange for supplies of soldiers and weapons for the war effort. Additionally, North Korea regularly conducts highly successful cyber theft operations that have resulted in billions of dollars in cash and cryptocurrency.
Former defector Tae points out that the North Korean government still faces significant internal difficulties. Even though the regime has increased its repression of any signs of that spreading, the younger generation is infected by the spread of ideas and culture from South Korea. That indicates to me that Kim Jong Un is still very afraid of any potential disaster, he says.
They are still safer than ever since the 1990s ‘ famines, according to Lankov.
According to a close observer of the North Korean economy based in Seoul,” the elimination of sanctions is still part of their negotiation goals.” However, it is not as critical as it was in the past.
According to the well-informed Western diplomat, the North Korean regime may be comfortable with the current situation for the time being. I simply don’t believe Kim Jong Un is cooperating with Washington.
South Korean acting
The role of South Korea may have an impact on the likelihood of a Trump-Kim negotiation. The progressive government of President Moon Jae-in, who served under the first Trump administration, was key in facilitating those discussions. Yoon Suk Yeol’s conservative government opposed that outreach and took a much harsher stance on the possibility of a new dialogue with Pyongyang.
However, the early June presidential election may result in a return to progressive rule in South Korea. According to experts in Seoul, a new government may not have the same access to the North as it does, but it is unlikely to prevent a resumption of engagement.
Former South Korean diplomat Cho Hyun, a close advisor to the progressive leadership of the Democratic Party, says,” We want a restoration of South-North relations and we are not critical of US-North Korea talks.” We think it will contribute to bringing peace to the peninsula.
Cho acknowledges that a new South Korean government might not be invited to play a key role in any negotiations between Trump and Kim, but he anticipates Seoul will be given that opportunity. The former senior Foreign Ministry official told this writer,” I don’t think we will be brushed aside.”
What will happen next may depend on how events will unfold in the upcoming weeks, from Ukraine to Iran.
Daniel C. Sneider is a Stanford University lecturer in East Asian studies and a non-resident distinguished fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America. This article, which was originally published by KEIA’s The Peninsula, is republished with permission.