Due to Donald Trump’s 145 % tariffs on Chinese goods, scheduled supplies from China are now starting to decline in US ships. The Los Angeles interface, which is the biggest harbor in the US for Chinese goods, forecasts that scheduled supplies in early May will be about a third less expensive than they were the same time last year.
US supermarket aisles are likely to immediately be affected by the decreasing boats ‘ arrivals of Chinese goods. Trump responded to instructions from US mall managers by saying trade negotiations between the US and China were taking place in the last few weeks. However, Xi Jinping, the president of China, immediately denied that discussions were taking place, implying that he has no intention of resuming a conflict with the US.
Xi has fashioned himself as a political symbol as one of the most prominent leaders in the Women’s Republic of China’s history. Therefore, reversing from a clash with the US would really undermine Xi’s heavyweight brand and rhetoric if China views Trump’s tariffs as a bully tactic intended to denigrate it.
Trump likely didn’t take this into account. The US president was also adamant that China had simply back down and “eat the taxes” at a rally to mark his 100th year in business.
Although taxes appear to be the main tool in the business war, China may have other strategies to retaliate against Trump and the US market. What might they be, is the problem?
It appeared a few weeks ago that Washington would condemn China for its inability to deal with more taxes, but it now appears that Trump is determined to do so and is attempting to persuade China to cooperate. Trump is then making the claim that China’s levies was significantly lower. Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described the business dispute with China as “unsustainable.”
combining crops and power
Since Trump’s first administration, China has fewer rely on US farm products. Washington is in poor shape because US crops has a sizable trade deficit with China. One of the few industries where that can be said is. The firm’s revenue will suffer as a result of the 12 % hostile tariffs.
But the only problem American producers have with is China’s punitive taxes. China has been using administrative constraints to encase US agricultural goods entering China and as a possible bargaining tool as the trade conflict heats up. For instance, China has delayed the renewals of US pig farmers ‘ export license renewals and turned down poultry farmers ‘ license renewals for “health and safety” reasons.
Beijing’s steps may be intended to hurt the economy, especially in the states that support Trump most. In “red state” like Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas, which have important farming communities, are a large portion of Trump’s and the Republican party’s center. Beijing is aware that skipping on agricultural problems may appeal to Trump voters.
77.7 % of US counties, including the 444 that the US Department of Agriculture ( USDA ) has designated as farming-dependent, voted for Trump in the US presidential election of 2024. Therefore, any difficulties that Trump’s own actions have caused for the crops sector are likely to cause him to gain support from a significant political base. And with midterm elections in 2026, Trump must use caution when provoking Beijing.
Voters in the fossil energy sector might also be a target for Beijing to destroy. In the past, the US has been a significant supplier of natural oil to China.
China has sought its normal oil from Australia, Indonesia, and Brunei since it first started looking for it in February 2025. It’s unlikely that the US will be able to offer its natural gas to China anytime soon, which will have an impact on Trump’s main political support foundations, the energy sector.
restricting materials
China’s restrictions on the import of crucial nutrients are another major issue that the US is facing. Seven uncommon earth nutrients are present in them: samarium, magnesium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, silicon, and yttrium. The US defence complex would be the main source of concern, even though these are used in the fresh energy and auto sectors.
These crucial metals are used to make radar systems, missiles, submarines, and fighter jets. While the US lacks these skills, China effectively has a stranglehold over the extraction and processing of rare rocks. This implies that China’s trade restrictions will probably have an impact on the US defence sector while Beijing will quickly expand its arsenal and military technology.
The White House probably anticipated China’s import restrictions on crucial materials. After all, Beijing had stopped exporting “dual-use” metal that can be used to create civil and military technologies, such as chromium, tungsten, and metal in 2010 over a fishing boat debate.
What comes future?
China has been attempting to recover from an ailing business that was mostly fueled by a real estate crisis for the past few years. Trump likely anticipated that China would sag sternly under the pressure and enter the desk of negotiations. After all, the Chinese Communist Party needs to quickly repair its business. The creation has long relied on delivering financial success to bolster its position in China.
The tit-for-tat war is currently on hold. By April 11, US tariffs on China had reached a record high of 145 %, while China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods had reached an unprecedented 125 %.
China may go even further by selling off US treasuries and raising the country’s interest rates, which would increase the country’s borrowing costs. Unlike Trump, Xi frequently plays the longer activity. After all, Trump’s presidency will be over in less than four decades, whereas Xi, the president of China, has no word limits. All Xi needs to do is be patient, and a more welcoming US leader may turn up.
Chee Meng Tan is a University of Nottingham associate professor of business economy.
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