Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, has announced a three-day ceasefire in Ukraine that will start on May 8 and coincide with the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in World War II. The Kremlin declares that “every hostility may be ended” during this time and has made it clear that it expects Ukraine to following suit.
Ukraine responded by praising Russia’s devotion to lasting serenity and calling for a ceasefire right away. Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s foreign secretary, wrote in a post on social media that “if Russia really wants peace, it must begin fire right away… Why wait until May 8th”
The news of a ceasefire came after two significant developments. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed on April 18 that if there was no headway, President Donald Trump would probably leave his peace efforts within weeks.
Following a Russian air strike in Kyiv on April 24 that left 12 people dead and more than 80 people injured, Trump finally issued a rare reprimand of Putin on social media, writing” Vladimir, STOP.”
Putin can do just enough to keep Trump from believing he is committed to a peace offer, in the hopes that sanctions will be lifted with a momentary peace. However, it has real advantages for Russia when it fights on the front lines.
Some aggressors use ceasefires to recover, rearrange, and position themselves better. Experts have warned that Russia may reorganize after the pause in order to pursue larger regional goals, particularly in southern and eastern Ukraine.
The broken” Easter truce” reportedly led to the regrouping of Russian forces in the Lyman region of Donetsk Oblast and the start of a significant army abuse soon after its conclusion. Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, claims that Russia has violated the Easter agreement roughly 3, 000 times.
Trump appears uneasy about these new developments, but he has continued to work toward maintaining a good relationship with Putin. Trump has done much to conceal his admiration for the Russian president, despite the fact that only 2 % of Americans are friendly to Russia.
Since August 2024, Bloomberg News has looked at more than 300 of Trump’s people remarks and over 3, 000 social media posts and discovered that he has been using Russian language. The most recent proof of this was only a few days ago.
When a journalist asked Trump about what compromises Putin had made during the negotiation process, Trump claimed that his Russian counterpart was making a “pretty great agreement” by no acquiring all of Ukraine.
And while most European leaders criticized the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Trump first referred to it as “genius” and” savvy.”
Trump not merely respects Putin, but also sees their marriage as advantageous. Trump has benefited from Putin’s support for his administration’s desire to take over Greenland, including possible investment options in Russia, such as a Trump Tower initiative in Russia.
Putin rarely flatters Trump, but most of the time it is to sway him. With Putin commissioning a effusive portrait of Trump in the wake of his death effort, standing proudly with the Statue of Liberty and the American flag in the background, it was clear to see through Putin’s purposes. However, it appears that Trump was moved by it.
This praise appears to be effective. Trump has just made it clear that he supports Putin’s assertions that the Crimea was seized by Russia in 2014, a significant departure from US foreign legislation years earlier.
Trump is violating the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which the US pledged to defend Ukraine’s independence, by doing so. This violates international law, and it will also make it more difficult to attain peace in Ukraine.
The identification of Russian control of Crimea is seen as a red line for Ukraine and would be socially unhappy. According to Zelensky, the Ukrainian government owns Crimea and that its annexation is against Ukraine’s recent law. When a nation is at war and in the midst of military law, the charter may be changed.
Ukraine’s constrained choices
Zelensky has no choice but to support a peace in the face of any unfavorable conditions of any looming peace deal. Nearly 90 % of Ukrainians polled said they were under stress because of the war, and another poll, released in March, revealed that 77 % of Ukrainians support a ceasefire.
Another problem is Zelensky’s ability to rely on the US. Moving to a peace is much more likely for events that have lost global support, according to research from 2023.
Zelensky has several options but to help a peace agreement as the US makes evident that long-term aid for Ukraine is not guaranteed and Trump hasn’t approved a second defense aid package since taking office.
Settlements are a fairly common occurrence in fight; over 230 truces have occurred since 1990. But they usually malfunction. Particularly, Russia has not always been the most reliable harmony partner. Zelensky claims that Putin has broken 25 peace contracts in the last ten years.
This doesn’t give anyone much faith that the most recent peace is a real step in the direction of serenity for Putin or that it will result in anything more substantial.
Russia may continue to sway the peace process and obstruct Ukraine’s potential security guarantees because Trump is impatient to get a package done rather than address the root cause of the conflict.
Putin is a master at breaking promises, which he will not honor. By doing so, he may make more concessions while simultaneously blaming Ukraine for the ceasefire.
Natasha Lindstaedt is a professor at the University of Essex’s Department of Government.
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