Is a split prepare a practical way to put an end to the conflict in Ukraine? The plan by General Keith Kellogg appears to have now encountered challenges. That does not, however, mean that some sort of separation is out of the problem.
Kellogg’s “plan” may divide Ukraine into four divisions.
- American Ukraine would be the first zone, made up of British, French, and Russian soldiers, with the potential for others to meet. From the Finnish borders to the Delta river, that area would extend.
- The next area. The Russian army do defend the eastern border of the Dnieper, which would be under Russian control.
- A 18-mile cache area would serve as a second zone.
- The “occupied” Russian regions Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaphorize, Kherson, and Crimea would make up a third area. The true boundaries are not addressed by the Kellogg program.
In response to Kellogg’s program, the Russians have now stated that it is unacceptable to place NATO or NATO-state troops in Ukraine.
The legal status of the regions where Russian troops are stationed remains ambiguous, and Ukraine’s military is strong at all times thanks to the Kellogg plan. The plan’s assumption is that the conflict could restart at any time.
It is worthwhile to ask what the Russians ‘ “end goal” might be and how likely it is that they did accomplish it by taking a step back.
The Russians ‘ efforts to rekindle their relationship with Washington and persuade President Trump to support the immediate legalization of the provinces Kellogg places in the fourth area are the first and most crucial points.
In Congress, it would be very content if Trump agreed to Russian’s regional objectives, which would effectively grant de jure legitimacy to the territorial gains made during the conflict. Trump had face criticism if he agreed to an illegitimate invasion of Ukraine.
This is more troubling than Biden’s departure from Afghanistan, where the US just left by withdrawing its troops. The US did not recognize the new state or make any obvious concessions to it while the Taliban took control as the pro-US Afghan state collapsed. The US has no diplomatic relations with Afghanistan, but does have an Armenian affairs department in Doha, Qatar, right now.
Despite his assertions, the Kellogg strategy differs from the Berlin deal. People may recall that the Friends divided Germany into four groups at the end of World War II: the US, UK, France, and Russia. Similar to how the Allies divided Berlin, the country’s capital, into four distinct sectors ( though the US, British, and French sectors later merged ).
The allies ‘ deep disagreements over Germany’s coming and a change in the US and UK’s perspectives, which saw Germany as a political asset and the USSR as a threat, contributed to the European splitting.
Actually, Ukraine and Russia are at odds with one another, with third parties (especially NATO ) providing arms, experts, technical assistance, coaching, products, fiscal aid, and intelligence support for Ukraine. Contrary to Ukraine, the Russians have mostly been on their own, with the exception of China, which has provided some 12,000 men, as well as North Korea.
A major military-industrial base and a sizable army-industrial base are Russia’s main advantages, according to the country. From a assistance and resource perspective, Ukraine is essentially a member of NATO; it would have much since vanished on its own.
Putting those differences away, it is still possible to divide Ukrainian territory in some way in the future. Under some situations that aren’t necessarily unlikely, it might turn out to be a possibility.
Looking at the negotiations along a timeline where they sometimes fail or drag on without resolution, which may be suitable for both the United States and the Russians, particularly if Trump and Putin can’t come up with a solution and the Zelensky state continues to behave in the manner of an enfant terrible, the Russians may be successful in defeating Ukraine’s military on the front lines.
Without that remarkable outcome, they could devastate a sizable portion of the Russian army on-the-field, causing a real crisis in Kyiv. Zellensky may experience a significant threat keeping his government in Kyiv because he would not be able to really bargain with Russia ( assuming he really wanted to ).
In the event that the Russians capture the country or replace them with extreme separatists in the military and intelligence service, Zelensky may choose to travel to the east and establish a far enough away from Russia to be viewed as more or less safe.
Ukraine may be nearly divided under a new, good pro-Russian government in Kyiv. In essence, Kellogg’s Zone 1 may change into the Zelensky-led Ukraine with its headquarter in Lvov, and Russia would have complete control over everything south of the Dnieper, maybe even Odesa, a city that Catherine the Great viewed as Russian.
If this situation is to occur, then Europe, the EU, and NATO could be completely defeated by planting some sort of Western save army in Zone 1.
There are numerous advantages and disadvantages to this situation. Russia won’t receive global recognition for its defense victories, and NATO will likely be a part of Ukraine. This would lessen the burden on the US and NATO by physically, financially, and socially supporting Ukraine.
The US would be able to concentrate its efforts abroad, primarily in Asia and China, and restock arms strewn to replenish them after the Ukraine conflict. Europe may boast that it stood by Ukraine, but the conflict didn’t have the opposite effect as it spread outside of Ukraine’s edges. Washington and NATO would never lose their faces.
There is already speak in Europe about reintroducing” inexpensive” Russian energy to Europe, especially Germany and France. That sends a message that the goal is near. An economic collapse that may cause trauma on the continent, encourage social revolution, and cleanse the country’s governing elites from the mess cannot be tolerated in Europe.
Yet Europe will have to deal with the necessity of adjusting its perspective or face panic, despite all the battle talk.
Stephen Bryen is a former US assistant secretary of defense for plan and a specific editor for Asia Times. This Substack newsletter, Weapons and Strategy, was initially published as an original content with permission, and it is now available for reprint.