The US and Iran’s prepared discussions in Oman come as a significant development, especially given their history of distrust and hostility that has characterized their interactions.
Whether the discussions about Iran’s nuclear capability creation will be direct or indirect will be in the air. Steve Witkoff, the US’s Middle East minister, may meet with Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, according to the US. If the discussions fail, Donald Trump has made it known that Iran will be in “great harm.”
Iran has in the past stated that discussions may be conducted through an entity. It is” because many an opportunity as a analyze,” aghchi said. The game is in America’s hands.
Even with the risk of US or Israeli military activity hovering over Iran, this apparent conflict in messaging before the deals have also begun is not the best sign of their success. On April 8, members from Iran, China, and Russia reportedly met in Moscow.
China’s foreign ministry reiterated to the world that the US was the one who unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear package or joint comprehensive plan of action and” caused the current condition.” It emphasized the need for Washington to” present political honesty, work in the nature of mutual regard, engage in dialogue and conversation, and put a stop to the threat of force and maximum stress.”
This was in response to messages from Washington that were largely focused on the possibility of power and maximum pressure. Trump addressed the issue of Iran’s nuclear weapons in a press conference after meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying:” If the discussions aren’t successful, I really think it will be a very bad time for Iran if that’s the case.”
The US government’s frequently debated transactional approach to politics, as represented by Witkoff, a former real estate developer, is likely to have a significant impact on how discussions turn out. Trump’s Middle Eastern political goals include extending the Abraham Accords. Those deals aimed to restore normalcy between Israel and several Muslim nations, including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.
The drafting of the treaties in 2020 was viewed as a significant accomplishment of Trump’s first administration’s foreign coverage, particularly in light of America’s commitment to halt Iran in the region.
Saudi Arabia is currently being constantly incorporated by the US. In that regard, acknowledging that local geopolitics would undergo a radical change as a result of Riyadh’s participation. Trump also intends to use significant investment initiatives and trade agreements to make financial dependencies that promote diplomatic normalization.
Iran, on the other hand, is having serious financial issues. High inflation, a degrading currency, and widespread poverty are the hallmarks of the nation’s current crisis-ridden economy. These circumstances have been made worse by private policy failures and foreign sanctions. In consequence, Iran is in desperate need of monetary compromises, which could be a major source of liquidity for the US.
Over the past 18 times, Tehran’s political influence has significantly decreased. In addition to the demise of crucial allies and leaders in organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah, military setbacks in 2024 have weakened Iran’s ability to assert its position in its area.
Iran’s negotiating position will be affected by this weakened place. Instead of pursuing intense policies, it might increase the likelihood that Iran’s negotiators will seek financial assistance and diplomatic solutions. However, if concessions are not forthcoming, force from hardliners within Iran may lead to a more dramatic strategy.
Rocky street awaits you.
The lower level of trust between the two events is a major factor in the discussions. Relations between the United States and the Gaza turmoil have become more disturbed, including Trump’s controversial plan to clear the area of Palestinian territory to allow for a potential redevelopment. The new US attack on Yemen’s Houthi separatists, supported by Iran, has done the same.
Iran is likely to view additional threats of this kind as being aggressive and aggressive, and Trump’s most recent rhetoric didn’t have helped. This may unavoidably lower the likelihood of trust between the parties.
Iran’s suspicion is a result of past events where financial aid vows were broken. Trump’s decision to withdraw from the US atomic deal from 2015 in 2018 serves as an illustration. Iran has grown hesitant to enter new treaties without receiving specific assurances as a result of this perceived breach of trust.
The talks are given a new layer of complexity thanks to the local perspective. The actions of Israel in Gaza are likely to be hampered by American aid. The populations of the majority of the Gulf states are firmly in favor of Arab self-determination, and they are scandalized by the US president’s apparent approval of Israel’s resumption of warfare.
Iran’s approach to the discussions is likely to be heavily influenced by its domestic politics. The “hardliners,” spearheaded by high chief Ali Khamenei, and the “reformists,” who are comparatively more diplomatic toward the US and Europe, are at a major political polarization in the nation. Hopes that Iran may be open to negotiations with Washington immediately faltered after last year’s surprise election of liberal Masoud Pezeshkian when he realigned his place to correspond with Khamenei’s immediately faltered.
The hardliner-dominated congress forced Pezeshkian to remove two significant reformists from the government in March 2025, including the vice-president Mohammad Javad Zarif and the market minister Abdolnaser Hemmati. This partisan politicking will make it more difficult for Iran to make a united front of the table in negotiations, which could be a significant boon for the US. However, it also strengthens the desire of hardliners to demand things that the US finds unacceptable.
Loughborough University professor of Middle Eastern and foreign relations Ali Bilgic.
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