Trump said in an exam with , NBC News , that” If Russia and I are unable to make a bargain on stopping the unrest in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault— which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put extra tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia. That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you didn’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25 % tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil”.
NBC News interpreted this as talking to what he earlier threatened on social media regarding the implementation of secondary restrictions on those that buy oil from Venezuela.
He , wrote , that “any Country that buying Oil and/or Gas from Venezuela will be forced to give a Tariff of 25 % to the United States on any Trade they do with our Country”. As it relates to Russia, this would rise tariffs on China and India, the first of which is now in a trade conflict with the US while the second , wants to avoid one.
This is exactly what the previous US Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, insinuated in an appointment with the New York Post in early February that was analyzed , these  , at the time. The conclusion was that such risks might suffice for getting them to push Russia into a bargain over Ukraine despite whatever apprehensions Putin may possess.
The effects of not doing so may be their conformity with the US secondary sanctions and all that may entail for the Russian business if it’s deprived of this income.
India is more prone to this form of American pressure, while China might endure for the reasons explained , here, in which case Russia may be overwhelmingly dependent on China, thus leading to the fait accompli of de facto young partnership status that Putin has tried his utmost to prevent.
Accordingly, it might only be India that tries nudging Russia into a deal over Ukraine while China might not do what Trump expects, instead , openly defying , his secondary sanctions if they’re then imposed.
This analysis , here  , briefly touches upon the five reasons why Russia might accept or reject a ceasefire in Ukraine, with it becoming increasingly likely that Trump might soon ramp up the pressure on Putin to decide, especially after he also just said that there‘s a “psychological deadline” for this.  ,
In his words, which followed right after his interview with NBC News,” It’s a psychological deadline. If I think they’re tapping us along, I will not be happy about it”.
The day before, Trump spent a sizeable amount of the day golfing with Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who shared his impression of his counterpart’s approach to Russia with the media.  ,
As he put it,” When you spend seven hours with someone, you at least get an intuition of the direction in which we’re going…The half-ceasefire has been broken by Russia, and I think America, and my sense is also the President of the United States, is running out of patience with Russia”.
This assessment aligns with what Trump told NBC News the next day and his later quip about a “psychological deadline” for concluding talks with Putin. The American leader’s preference for wielding sanctions as a foreign policy tool might, therefore,  , come into play against Russia , exactly as was foreseen in early February after Kellogg’s cited interview.
This moment of truth could even arrive earlier than expected and thus force Putin to compromise , or escalate , before he’s fully made up his mind either way.
This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber , here.