Four unnamed European officials were cited by The Financial Times (FT ) in a report claiming that” European military powers work on a 5- to 10-year plan to replace US in NATO.”
The Scandinavian countries, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are all cited in the document as wanting to provide this request to the US at the upcoming NATO Summit in June.
Several nations have also declined to participate in these discussions, according to FT, either out of fear that this will prompt the US to move more quickly or because they believe it won’t leave Europe.
The most significant nations on NATO’s southeast side, which all prefer to remain under the US protection umbrella, are likely the ones whose FT is referring to.
If the ruling liberal-globalists win May’s presidential election, Poland ‘s  and recent flirtations with France  could signal a full-fledged pivot, but for the time being, it serves as an attempt to rebalance ties with the US in the face of uncertainty over its future plans. It can also be seen as a , a mistaken negotiation tactic, to maintain and grow the US military appearance.
The Baltic States have a devoted pro-American aristocracy, and they’ll simply revert to the EU if Trump unilaterally or completely removes US soldiers from their territory as part of a royal agreement with Russia.
Romania , somewhat rebuffed , France’s plan to expand its nuclear umbrella to the rest of the globe, which can be interpreted as placing more trust in the US than in Europe in the situation of a crisis , with Russia , over Moldova.
If these five nations continue to view their national interests in these methods, which would involve Poland’s ruling liberal-globalists to avoid moving to France if they are elected president ( their opponents are relatively more pro-US), then a split within NATO Europe would form.
France and Germany, who are competing with Poland and France for the title of post-conflict Europe, may find that the US will undermine their plans for influencing Central and Eastern Europe ( CEE ).
The final of which voted against the US’s Russophilic population’s wishes while the last needed the US to maintain Turkey’s sea claims at bay, NATO’s eastern flank may drop under US influence. From Estonia to Romania and potentially as far as Bulgaria and perhaps Greece.
This alleged” cordon sanitaire” could then serve the dual purposes of preserving US influence in this geostrategic region of Europe by “pivoting ( back ) to Asia” and dividing Western Europe and Russia.
Poland’s liberals might be able to fend off that scenario, but it depends on: 1 ) the CEE countries still see Russia as a threat; 2 ) they believe the US to be a more trustworthy security partner than the EU; and 3 ) the US not voluntarily ceds all of its influence in Europe.
If these factors stay the same, Western Europe might physically reshape mostly independent of CEE, which CEE nations might still appreciate because it would aid in their “deterrence” strategies.
In the unlikely event that a popular NATO-Russian conflict persists below the nuclear threshold, the CEE countries may depend on a military merged Western Europe to come to their rescue if they  doesn’t stop Russia on their own.
Russia has no intention of joining NATO, but the US’ continued military presence in the CEE may deter those anti-Russian nations from acting provocatively, and the US’ status would be ruined if it abandoned them in a heated conflict.
If FT’s statement about the first’s plans to replace the US in NATO is accurate, Europe may physically split into a effectively automatic northern half and an American-aligned eastern one with this understanding in mind.
The goal of Poland’s upcoming presidential election, which would draw attention to its overwhelming influence on shaping Europe’s potential security architecture, the subject of which is at the heart of NATO-Russian tensions, could be the only realistic way to offset that scenario.
This article was originally published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack, and it has since been republished. Subscribe to the Andrew Korybko Newsletter here.