Donald Trump, the US senator, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, both agreed to only confining actions and not a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia after more than two days on the phone on Tuesday, March 17.
The two leaders agreed to carry out a restricted slave trade, suspending attacks on energy system, and form working groups to look at additional steps in the direction of a ceasefire and ultimately a peace agreement after receiving the call.
The game is then back in America’s court, which is a less generous way to evaluate the results of the second visit between the two presidents since Trump’s return to the White House. Puttin made it abundantly clear to Trump that he is not (yet ) interested in any compromise.
Given current events, this is not unexpected.
Trump hoped that Russia would likewise ratify a request for a 30-day peace, which the US has relentlessly pressured Ukraine to accept. Trump has so far sounded unwilling to consider putting any valuable equivalent pressure on Putin, aside from a vague statement that he made that he might consider imposing sanctions on Russia.
In the Kursk region, where Russian troops have seized the majority of the territory they had taken after an unexpected offensive last summer, Russia has regained control. When Putin’s troops, assisted by hundreds of Northern Korean soldiers, are successful in extinguishing the Ukrainians from Russia, Kyiv may have lost its most important tool in the negotiations with Moscow.
In addition, Russia has even made more money on the front lines of Ukraine, particularly in sections of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Despite never yet having complete control over these two of the four areas, Donetsk and Luhansk are the other two, which Putin has claimed for Russia in total since the fake polls in September 2022.
Putin would definitely get it even easier to persuade Trump that his needs are acceptable if Russia were to annex even more of Ukraine. Concerning how far the Russian president has now taken the initiative, including the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, which was Europe’s largest before being forced to close in September 2022, is the fact that Trump now suggested a “diversification of property.”
However, a deal made entirely between Russia and the US will not work. In that regard, Zelensky’s position is both on Putin’s and his.
The two leaders had discussed” the total cessation of foreign military aid and the delivery of intellect data to Kyiv,” according to the Russian reading of the conversation, which Trump later denied in an appointment with Fox. This implies that Kyiv is likely to remain receiving US support for the time being.
Europe set
Perhaps more important in the long run, Europe is even doubling down on Ukraine support. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, had no doubts about the EU’s position while Trump and Putin were having a telephone conversation about a veto of Ukraine.
She reaffirmed her commitment to developing German” functions having reputable deterrent” against a hostile Russia in a statement at the Royal Danish Military Academy ahead of the release of the agency’s Preparation 2030 white papers on strengthening European defenses.
A multi-billion euros package that loosens the country’s stringent borrowing regulations and makes large investments in defense was passed by the German parliament a few hours later. This comes in response to EU-wide announcements to increase security, including those made in the UK and Poland.
However, attempts are being led by the UK and France to form a coalition of those ready to assist Ukraine. On March 15th, the 30-member group’s members gathered in London to discuss progress.
Following that, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that Russia’s northern partners would continue to put pressure on Russia, maintain military aid flow to Ukraine, and impose stricter restrictions on its economy.
These methods definitely would have had Washington’s full support, but they also send a strong message to the Kremlin and the White House that Ukraine is not the only country fighting Russia’s persistent anger.
Putin’s choices
Putin, in the meantime, may have some time on his hands in the near future because: a Ukraine supported by such a coalition of the willing might have more power than Ukraine.
Putin’s ostensible attempt to entice Trump into the minutiae of a comprehensive agreement may ultimately have a negative impact in more ways than one. The US president’s notoriously short attention span will be tested by extremely in-depth discussions, for example.
However, this will also give Ukraine and its supporters more time to strengthen Kyiv’s position in upcoming negotiations. And the Russian economy will continue to be strained, but not immediately.
Trump’s efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine have stalled for the time being. He is attempting to broker a complex ceasefire agreement that includes pressure on NATO allies, pressure on Kyiv and Moscow, and an effort to scuttle Russia and China. How or where this will end is a mystery to me.
The only thing to know for certain is that they are not significantly advancing a just and stable peace for Ukraine.
Stefan Wolff is a professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, and Jean Monnet is a professor of European security at the National University Odesa Law Academy, respectively.
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