If the US and Russia want a bargain on Ukraine, Zelensky will need to engage. That is far from specific. The outcome could be that President Trump may not be able to communicate a Ukraine arrangement with Russia and the Ukraine war will continue.
The US and Ukraine may have their , second meeting in Riyadh , next week to consider and weed out a “peace framework”. If something appropriate and acceptable is agreed upon, therefore President Trump will have something he can get to the Russians. If nothing is accomplished, or the “peace model” is impossible, therefore Trump is left with an unoccupied handbag and would have trouble moving forward with the Russians on Ukraine.
In any bargaining the starting position is a starting point to a bargain. It is strange that one part may determine any arrangement.
What we know is that the US wants a bargain on Ukraine to end the war. Apparently the Russians reveal that stance, although evidently they want a , fast deal , or none at all.
The Russians may continue the war in Ukraine, taking advantage of the strengthening of Ukraine’s troops, the , absence of supplies , that may arrive from Europe, and the danger that the , US army is depleted , and limited.
One of the more negative aspects for the US has arisen from the use of British entrance line weapons in Ukraine. Over time the Russians have learned how to , intercept some US arms, such as HIMARS and ATACMS. Do they share what they learned with their Taiwanese and Egyptian peers? Possible.
There also is information that extremely sensitive information on HIMARS and other systems was  , sold to the Chinese by an active duty US Army sergeant , ( himself of Chinese ethnicity ). We don’t understand in any detail what was contained in the stolen details, but apparently it was quite extensive as an overall Top Secret painful travel was stolen.
China, of course, is interested in HIMARS because the US Marines are positioning HIMARS on the , area of Yonaguni, close to Taiwan, with the objective of interdicting any Taiwanese getting army attacking Taiwan. Also, Taiwan , is starting to get HIMARS, although sales were delayed for some time ( a wrongdoing of considerable sizes given the growing threat of invasion from China ).
What this means is that the US faces a possible hostile China that can threaten Taiwan– perhaps even Japan, which houses important US Air Force and Navy bases. It should not be overlooked that Okinawa, which has US Marine and Air Force foundations, is Chinese territory.
Zelensky has found it necessary ( thanks to the US hands supply closure ) to seem like he is advocating a peace model, but no doubt he will insist on Russia pulling most of its troops out of Ukraine. On top of that he did like security guarantees from the United States. He calls it a” safety relationship” with the United States.
The idea that the Minerals Agreement is a walk in for a security promise is, at best, a poor reed from Ukraine’s point of view. What the Ukrainians want is US boots on the ground, anything President Trump has, so far, ruled out.
Zelensky was promoting a meeting with President Trump that would include both himself, Keir Starmer from the UK and Emanuel Macron from France. Right now it seems Washington has vetoed for a meeting, preferring a leaders meeting in Riyadh without President Trump in enrollment.
That undermines the one piece of real utilize Zelensky has, which is to use Europe and NATO against the US. Yet, what he misses is that doing so has the perverse effect of taking a wrecking ball to NATO if the US finds itself profoundly estranged from its NATO allies. There are already critical mutterings as the Trump presidency tries to , offload its NATO responsibilities , on Europe.
In reality the only real advantage Zelensky has is to drop on and continue to oppose significant concessions to Russia. While he has played the Europeans pretty well, US opposition to supporting Ukraine and outcry on several ideas from the UK, France and, to a lesser degree from Germany, has not yielded anything so far useful to Ukraine’s position.
It would be amazing if there were a positive outcome in Riyadh. Washington has to be alert to the fact that Zelensky agrees to one thing, but often does the reverse. Having said that, President Trump needs a package he can put on the table with Russia. Those negotiations with Russia look stalled until the US can work out a deal with Zelensky.
Meanwhile Russia continues pressing Ukraine’s army, gaining ground. If Russia forces Ukraine’s army into surrendering, the game is over. Then it is Russia’s problem figuring out what to do with a hostile population and a wrecked infrastructure.
Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared on his Substack newsletter , Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.