The likelihood of the peace agreement making its way to its appointed second stage on March 1 seems exceedingly unlikely as the deadline for the finish of phase one of the agreement between Israel and Hamas approaches. Middle East professional, Scott Lucas, addresses the important concerns.
What are the probabilities of the peace continuing through period two?
An arrangement to move from step one to step two at the start of March was a far-fetched chance yet before Donald Trump’s request for the opening and restoration of Gaza, which would amount to ethnic cleaning.
We were close to missing a second period. Netanyahu, the leader of Israel, had been holding out for times against a deal, and two hard-right officials, Bezalel Smotrich, the minister of finance, and Ben-Gvir, the chancellor, were pressuring him to back down.
In the end, Netanyahu agreed because of the pressure from Hamas ‘ hostage-taking individuals and a response from Trump’s minister Steve Witkoff.
Ben-Gvir left while Smotrich remained in the government, but his party declared it would continue to support the government. Yet, both demanded that there be no second step. They , called instead , for martial action to eliminate Hamas and the relocation of the populace of Gaza– volunteer or then.
The Israeli government is supposed to completely leave Gaza in the coming days while Arab rule is restored in the Strip. Hamas will refuse to step down from energy and Israel and the US does require that Hamas step down. However, Israelis may ask Hamas leaders to step down.
Trump’s need for an ending of “occupation” of Gaza, not by the Israelis but by Gazans, confirmed the fate of the process. There is no possibility that Hamas diplomats will agree to a” option” in which most, if not all, people are evicted.
That is why Trump, using the excuse of Hamas barrier of step one, stopped portraying himself as a “peacemaker” on Monday. Otherwise, he proclaimed:” All bets are off and let heaven tear out” — in consequence, returning to a blank search for Israel’s military actions, siege of humanitarian aid, and mass killing across Gaza.
Does Donald Trump have any intention of revitalizing Gaza?
Some media outlets have acted carelessly by discrediting Trump’s comments by implying that he is not severe or that his remarks are” thinking outside the box” with their outrageous statements.
Trump’s request for “development” of Gaza, clearing out the people, was not just a thought bubbles. In his first name, he frequently spoke of North Korea’s “great seashores” and “waterfront home” as a perfect place for flats and hotels.
In March 2024, his son-in-law Jared Kushner turned to the Middle East, saying:” Gaza’s waterfront property could be very useful … From Israel’s standpoint, I would do my best to move the folks out and then clean it up”.
The Trump administration requested Joseph Pelzman, a teacher of financial and international politics at George Washington University, to come up with a plan for the Strip next summer. He put it in perspective by saying,” You have to destroy the entire area, you have to resume from scrape.” It requires that the location be completely emptied out. I mean, actually emptied out”.
Trump was telling reporters that the “demolition page” should be evacuated from Gaza’s civilians within a year of his White House visit on January 20. Only over a week later, alongside Netanyahu, he expanded on the charter – apparently in a statement written by Kushner.
How about foreign rules?
Trump’s plan clearly violates international law. The Geneva standards forbid citizens from being transferred outside of their country unless it is “impossible” to do otherwise.
UN official Stéphane Dujarric told writers:” Any forced movement of individuals is equivalent to tribal cleansing”.
However, the Trump presidency doesn’t seem to care about international laws at all. Trump signed an executive order granting the International Criminal Court two weeks after his look with Netanyahu.
In fact, the leadership doesn’t think there should be any legal monitoring in the US. As Trump and Elon Musk attempt to destroy US agencies, with large firings and seizure of records that may be illegal and illegitimate, the US vice-president, J. D. Vance, maintains:” Judges aren’t allowed to handle the executive’s genuine power”.
Trump, demanding the impeachment of a judge who ruled against the unauthorized access to records, said:” No judge should, frankly, be allowed to make that kind of a decision”.
Does the US have the necessary backing to accomplish this?
Absolutely not, especially if Trump tries to fulfill his pledge that the US should “own” Gaza. Apart from Israel, no country has given support to Trump’s proposal. And most Americans, even Trump backers, would be loath to have “ownership” which required intervention by US troops.
The nations Trump wants to send Palestinians to are vehemently opposed to. Within hours of Trump’s February 4 statement, he got a firm rebuttal from Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh cited” the Kingdom’s firm and supportive positions on the Palestinian people’s rights” and emphasized its recent shift to “firm and unwavering” support of a Palestinian state.
Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s position was confirmed by the foreign ministry, who also cited his phone call with Jordan’s King Abdullah as a sign of unity. After Netanyahu said the Saudis “have plenty of territory” for a Palestinian state, Riyadh denounced the “extremist, occupying mentality” that seeks to expel Palestinians from Gaza.
Egyptian Foreign Minister , Badr Abdelatty , told US Secretary of State , Marco Rubio , on Monday in Washington that Arab states rejected Trump’s pitch. Abdelatty emphasized the necessity of Palestinian reconstruction in Gaza while ensuring that no one was killed there.
And, on the eve of King Abdullah’s visit to Washington, Jordan expressed its “rejection of any attempts to annex land and displace the Palestinians”.
How do you anticipate this to change over the coming months?
Trump and the Israelis will now turn their attention to Hamas as an existential threat that cannot be included in a phase two ceasefire.
Phase one is scheduled to end on March 1. I anticipate that Israel will resume its long-running conflict in Gaza, probably sooner.
And Trump, who only recently presented himself as a “peacemaker”, will give unconditional backing – while bemoaning that Gazans, up to 90 % of them displaced from their homes, still won’t leave the Strip.
Scott Lucas is professor of international politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin
This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.