Trump ‘s , confirmed interest , in Ukraine’s important and rare earth materials is being interpreted by some as valuable for President Volodymyr Zelensky amid uncertainty about the new US government’s dedication to Ukraine. One of the details from Zelensky’s so-called” Victory Plan” calls for letting his government’s allies to remove its nutrients.
Marco Rubio, the new secretary of state, recently warned about the proper benefits that China derives from its control of the world’s unique planet mineral supply chain, in order to potentially have an impact on Trump’s position on the Ukraine-related issue.
US Senator Lindsey Graham made headlines about Ukraine’s rare earth riches while on a trip that last June, claiming that the country was assimilated by US$ 10 trillion in like success.
Trump 2.0’s international policy concentrate on more slender containing China in all ways , consistently predisposed , him to understand the above point from Zelensky’s” Victory Plan”.
The problem, though, is that the volume of Ukraine’s essential material prosperity is , under Russian control , while Russian troops continue to flee.
At the same time, US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg’s suggestion that Ukraine needs to hold long-delayed elections , was seen , as reflecting Trump’s interest in brokering a ceasefire, after which martial law can be lifted, the elections could be held, and a new Ukrainian government can then begin peace talks.
This expectation contrasts with what Trump said a few days later about his interest in Ukraine’s ( mostly Russian-controlled ) rare earth mineral deposits and the possibility of proxy escalation of the war.
Trump might try to cut a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin instead of halting his efforts to freeze the Ukrainian conflict by increasing military aid in the hope that Zelensky’s forces can then retake these deposits from Russian control, which could perpetuate the proxy war and thus derail his foreign policy agenda.
Putin might be able to sell some of these rare earth and other important minerals to the US as one of the conditions Trump might create to coerce Ukraine into reversing its claim to at least some of the territory that Russia claims as its own.
Depending on how much Trump can coerce Ukraine into resuming, Putin might agree. There’s also a practical argument in favor of this arrangement, which could allow the EU to partially resume some Russian gas pipeline imports one day.
The purpose would be to restore a degree of Russia and the EU’s pre-conflict economic interdependence, albeit this time under US supervision, as a reward for Russia complying with a ceasefire.
The US may provide two rare earth deposits, one of which might involve the return of some seized Russian assets if Russians are invested in this endeavor. The first requires the return of some seized Russian assets.
If successfully implemented, then this proposal could lead to more creative diplomacy of the sort suggested at the end of this analysis , here  , for depriving China of Russia’s enormous resource wealth, which aligns with Trump’s foreign policy goals.
Ukraine wouldn’t be left completely in the lurch, however, since other smaller rare earth mineral deposits , still remain , under its control. These could be given to the US in exchange for continued military aid, even if the latter is curtailed compared to its height under the Biden administration in the run-up to summer 2023 ‘s , counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/”>ultimately , counteroffensive-stalled-russia-war-defenses/”>doomed , counteroffensive.
Zelensky would have no choice but to accept this deal if Trump and Putin reached an agreement regarding the deposits in Russia.
Zelensky would only end up with whatever the cost-conscious Trump administration determines is the lowest level the US believes Ukraine needs to maintain the peace, far from the full military support he anticipated to receive in order to regain those lost deposits.
This is the best outcome for those on all sides who truly want peace, but it will require significant political will from both the US and Russia, as well as the US’s coercing Ukraine into agreeing, none of which can be guaranteed at this time.
This , article , was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber , here.