On January 19, 2025, the much-anticipated Gaza peace and prisoner agreement is expected to become effective, subject to a postponed Jewish government’s decision to vote on the package, which had originally been scheduled for the morning of January 16.
The discovery comes 15 months into the terrible conflict that was sparked by a Hamas gunmen attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of about 1,200 Israelis and the taking of 251 hostages. In the following bomb and battle of the Gaza Strip, some 45, 000 Palestinians have been killed.
What does the present discovery mean for the chances of a more lasting peace, however, and why? Asher Kaufman, a teacher of peace studies at the University of Notre Dame and an expert on Jewish story, was contacted by The Conversation for clarifications.
What is the deal’s major thrust?
Not all of the information have been clarified or made public. However, we do know this:
The package is divided into three levels. In the first step, 33 people, children and men who are ill or over the age of 55 may be released in stages over 42 weeks. Two Americans have been among the victims taken by Hamas, according to reports that they have been there since October 7.
In full, 94 victims remain in prison, including 34 thought to be dead.
Palestinians who were forced to leave north Gaza will also be permitted to return, even though the majority of the neighborhood and their homes are completely destroyed.
Negotiations will start on the 16th day of the agreement’s application, which will include the transfer of Hamas’s remaining captives. Israel will move its troops to a protective buckle to provide a cushion between Israel and the Gaza Strip at this point.
Israel may release Arab prisoners in exchange for releasing the hostages in accordance with a predetermined ratio for each Jewish dead or living human or soldier. Hunderte of Arab women and children are expected to be released in the first wave, already housed in Israeli prisons. Israel did also permit more humanitarian aid to enter Gaza.
The launch of the remaining hostages will be a part of the next phase of the agreement, and Egypt, Qatar, and the UN will be assisting with the rebuilding of Gaza. Israel’s complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is anticipated at this point.
How important is the miracle?
Gaza has been ravaged by the war’s fifteen times. This agreement could lead to the end of the conflict that and set the stage for the first steps toward stabilization and reconstruction.
It might also allow the incoming Trump presidency to concentrate on other pressing issues that are more important to its foreign policy strategy, such as a possible new agreement with Iran and the resumed standardization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia in relation to the establishment of a new security alliance with the US.
For Israel, it means the possibility of the end of its longest conflict, which has cost a fortune, eroded its reputation internationally, and severly divided its culture between supporters and opponents of the state. It might put an end to the disaster that has been in place since October 7, 2023, allowing Jewish society to start its own recuperation.
What concerns remain excellent?
Over the early phases of the agreement, there are significant questions. Critical users of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s alliance, including Ministers of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, have been accused of being more engaged in a permanent job of the Gaza Strip than in the transfer of the victims.
They will be reluctant to accept any procedures that would result in the area becoming a Palestinians ‘ administrative and security force.
The Israeli government has made it abundantly clear that it does not believe Hamas will play a role in a post-conflict Gaza throughout the issue. But Hamas ‘ main competitor, the Palestinian Authority, has small trust among Gaza’s people. Who may rule in Gaza remains to be seen.
Additionally, it raises the possibility that, if Israel had been really interested in putting the deal into action, it might have agreed to a deal that would require Israel to completely leave Gaza in exchange for the release of all hostages rather than have one that would have been put into action incrementally.
Why did speaks achieve today, but earlier efforts fail?
This package has been discussed at least since May 2024. However, Netanyahu and his administration have opposed it in part because they want Israel to keep control of Gaza.
Some of his government’s officials have expressly discussed creating the circumstances for reducing the number of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and some of them have also stated that they want to build Israeli settlements there.
Netanyahu’s critics also suggested that the prime minister wanted to keep the battle going as long as possible because it benefited him socially.
However, Donald Trump’s election as president of the US changed the relationships between Israel, Hamas, and the US.
Trump wants to be recognized as a deal-maker on a global scale, and Netanyahu, a Democratic ally, feels inclined to lend his support to Trump on this front. Trump can take on a part thanks to the schedule of the agreement, and Joe Biden can keep with a “win” in terms of foreign policy.
There are also hopes that forging a package, which was started under Trump’s second administration, will then open the door for the continuation of normalization discussions between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Netanyahu’s reputation as the country’s leader in charge of the October 7 slaughter may become balancing out with a deal with Saudi Arabia.
How will the bargain play out in Israel’s turbulent politics?
The major problem that may affect the deal’s death in the long run is this.
Its provisions are in direct opposition to the aspirations of some members of Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, and they may do everything in their power to damage it.
If these right-wing holdouts leave the government or remain in the alliance because they think the latter stages of the offer won’t be put into action, it is still unclear.
What does it suggest for Hamas’s part in Gaza and its future?
Conditions that could change Hamas ‘ rule in Gaza are not included in the contract.
Netanyahu has so far opposed any attempts to elicit the Palestinian Authority’s profit or permit any other Arab or international organizations to run human affairs in the remove.
Hamas, on the other hand, has no desire to facilitate its substitute by various governing bodies and transferring control of Gaza. The militant group is now in a less powerful place than it was before Oct. 7, because it has lost key users of its authority over the course of the battle.
A sarcastic opinion might be that Netanyahu’s efforts to manage the Israeli-Palestinian issue does actually benefit from having a weakened Hamas remain in power rather than trying to resolve it.
Before October 7, he had this strategy in place, and there are no signs that it has changed.
University of Notre Dame professor of history and harmony research Asher Kaufman
This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.