US airfields in the Pacific are incredibly susceptible to China’s developed long-range aircraft and missile capabilities, which could lead to catastrophic losses before a possible issue even starts.
According to a report released by the Hudson Institute think tank, US airfields in the Western Pacific are in grave danger because China’s People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) has far outperformed US efforts to protect airfield infrastructure.
According to a report from the Hudson Institute, the US government has added two more aircraft shelters since the early 2010s compared to China’s, which has doubled its solidified aircraft homes to over 3, 000 and extended runways. According to the document, this gap leaves US airbases risky of being hit by precision missiles, with the majority of aircraft losses anticipated on the ground.
According to the report, China’s fortress efforts provide for prolonged heat attacks that are under attack, which presents a strategic advantage. In comparison, it points out that US rely on Warm War-era strategies and little investment in improving airfield resilience raises operating risks and encourages Chinese aggression.
It recommends a multi-year strategy to dry US airbases, install active and passive defenses, and remodel force structures to run from remote or separated locations. Without these steps, the Hudson Institute record warns that the US faces a destabilizing proper disparity that could lead to preemptive Chinese military activities and that it risks losing air supremacy in the Indo-Pacific.
Additionally, The War Zone reported in December 2024 that the US Air Force’s new Installation Infrastructure Action Plan ( I2AP ) notably disregards plans for new, hardened aircraft shelters despite acknowledging that bases can no longer be regarded as sanctuary and must operate under attack.
The War Zone information that this absence comes as a result of China’s growing drone and missile risks. It says that while the I2AP emphasizes modernizing and right-sizing center system, improving resiliency against attacks and natural disasters, and enhancing energy grid stability, it leans towards versatility and rapid recovery more than real hardening.
According to the report, US Air Force officials claim diversifying and expanding assets is more successful than strongly investing in dried structures. It mentions the higher cost and restricted utility of precision-guided arms against dried homes.
Nevertheless, The War Zone points out that this strategy contrasts with concerns raised by US Congress, which were highlighted by a letter from 13 Democratic lawmakers warning that the majority of US plane losses in simulated issues with China occurred on-site.
In response to the US Department of Defense’s ( DOD ) slow response to the growing threat, US lawmakers raised concerns over the vulnerability of US airbase infrastructure in the Pacific in March 2024.
Representatives John Moolenaar and Marco Rubio urged the US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall and the US Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro to make urgent security improvements in a text dated May 2024. They noted that Anderson Air Force Base in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands are now in danger of being attacked by China’s sophisticated weapon features, including those of all US foundations in the area.
The lawmakers also made a point about the US DOD’s slow adoption of quiet defenses, quite as cooled aircraft shelters, because they are necessary for surviving and recovering from possible attacks. China has built over 400 of these homes in the past ten years, but only 22 have been added in the US.
Additionally, the text criticized sluggish rules for handling weapons from World War II, which cause costly delays to crucial development projects. The legislators warned that if something isn’t done, the US government’s operational capabilities may suffer significantly if a Chinese invasion of Taiwan occurs.
In a December 2024 Stimson Center think tank statement, Kelly Grieco and various writers discuss the effects of underinvestment in dried airbase infrastructure, mentioning that Chinese missile strikes may ruin US air operations in the Indo-Pacific, involving destroying key runways and taxiways that would cause fleet generation and flying refueling at the start of a conflict.
According to Grieco and others, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force ( PLRF ) has the capability to launch ballistic and cruise missiles to close runways in Japan, Guam, and other Pacific locations, potentially halting tanker and fighter operations for more than a month.
Without operational tankers, US fighters would struggle to reach or leave crucial combat areas like the Taiwan Strait, and bombers could experience significant delays as a result of relying on distant bases. They claim that these disruptions could give China a strategic window into achieving its military goals, such as capturing Taiwan, before US forces can recover.
In light of the growing threat of Chinese long-range strikes on US airspace in the Pacific,  , Air & Space Forces Magazine reported in December 2024 that China is significantly expanding the range of its missiles and warplanes, which poses a growing threat to US interests in the region.
According to the report, the PLA is enhancing its anti-access/area denial ( A2/AD ) strategy by increasing ballistic missiles and advanced aircraft. The PLA Navy ( PLAN ) and Air Force ( PLAAF ) are now operating more frequently and farther away from China’s shores, making use of new air refueling capabilities to extend their operational range, according to the report.
According to the US DOD’s 2024 China Military Power report, China’s long-range aviation and missile forces made significant progress through the previous year, which shows how much more emphasis is being placed on strengthening strategic deterrence and power projection.
According to the report, the PLAAF integrated the Y-20U aerial tanker, making it more able to support long-range air operations by enabling international deployments and over-the-top missions into the Philippine Sea.
Concurrently, it says the PLAAF pursued the development of the H-20 stealth bomber, which is projected to achieve a global strike capability, marking a critical step in evolving China’s airborne leg of its nuclear triad.
In addition, it points out that the PLARF has expanded its inventory by using modern intercontinental ballistic missiles ( ICBMs) like the DF-27, which can carry nuclear and conventional payloads at altitudes up to 8, 000 kilometers. It says the DF-17 missile, equipped with HGVs, bolstered precision strike capabilities across the Western Pacific.
The report mentions these developments are supported by improvements in command and control, missile defense countermeasures, and space-based targeting technologies, underscoring China’s strategic focus on achieving military parity with global powers and deterring adversaries across multiple domains​.