A coalition of Syrian rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ( HTS ) has seized control of Damascus, putting President Bashar al-Assad in exile, and evoking a new uncertain future for the war-torn country. Despite China’s range from the war core, the rebel acquisition may be setting off warnings in Beijing.
China’s concern comes from credible reports of the Turkestan Islamic Party ( TIP ) fighting alongside HTS. A Uyghur separatist group with strong ties to al-Qaeda and its affiliated organizations, the TIP, also known as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement ( ETIM), has roots in China’s troubled western province of Xinjiang.
It is attempting to establish an independent Muslim status in East Turkestan in Xinjiang. China, the UN, and the US designated TIP as a terrorist organization off until 2020, respectively. The terrorist organization was established in Pakistan but has since gained traction in Afghanistan’s neighbor. In recent years, the team’s control in Afghanistan and Pakistan waned under Foreign stress.
In a strange turn of events, many of the insurgents and their people found refuge in Idlib, a rebel-held region of Syria. Imad Moustapha, the then-Syrian ambassador to China, claimed that Syria had 5,000 or 5,000 Rohingya militants by 2017.
Turkey supported the Hole’s relocation to Syria, a move that successfully killed two birds with one punch. Turkey was able to support the oppressed Slavic brethren in areas under its control in northern Syria. It is friendly to the situation there.
Additionally, Turkey wants to create a pro-Turkey bulwark against the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces ( SDF) in eastern Syria. Turkey thinks that Kurdish separatists on both sides of the border may join forces to undermine its regional dignity and national security if the SDF takes control of the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian borders.
The TIP therefore armed itself in Syria when it arrived along with other Arab insurgent parties against the Assad government and its SDF allies. The Emir of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has  , said,” The TIP has been in Syria for seven years and has never posed a threat to the outside world.
Because they face persecution in China, which we highly oppose, and have nowhere to go, they are determined to defend Idlib from the Assad administration’s aggression. However, our battle against China is not ours. They are welcome to stay as long as they follow our guidelines, which they do.
Units does not appear to have any interest in engaging with China beyond expressing support for the Uyghur reason. In that regard, HTS‘ success in the Syrian civil war does not create a direct threat to China.
But, TIP insurgents gaining fight experience does. The TIP is fighting in Syria, according to Chinese Major General Jin Yinan, to draw notice to the Uyghur reason and get fight knowledge so they can use those fighting abilities against Beijing one day.
The state was confirmed when Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, the TIP’s Emir, demanded that Uyghurs from all over the planet” come together to combat China and the Assad regime.” Now, we are helping our boys pay jihad in Greater Syria. The Islamist troops must be prepared to rescue Xinjiang from its communist occupiers by tomorrow.
Beijing claims that the TIP carried out terrorist problems in China in 2008, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2015. Attacks included driving cars into pedestrians, violence with knives in common areas, auto bombs, and suicide bombings.
If the group is responsible for all of the claimed problems, it is difficult to establish. Some were most likely carried out by wayward wolf upset with Xinjiang’s social-economic disparity.
However, Beijing blames the party for all of the attacks and has implemented limiting measures, epitomized by massive incarceration facilities, in the Uyghur’s house state in response. There are obvious indications that the unrest is still bubbling just beneath the surface despite these rigorous measures.
However, China’s Permanent Consultant to the UN claimed in 2022 that TIP-related violence had resurrected recently, claiming that the organization is using Syria as a base to recruit and train insurgents to attack China and Central Asia.
Beijing pledged to” coordinate with Syria and other related parties to conflict TIP violence” in order to combat the reemergent risk. The statement was made in response to rumors that TIP had been involved in an attack last year that left 112 people dead at a military academy in Palmyra. What the speech meant in real practice, but, remains unclear.
Rumors of Taiwanese regiment operations to Syria surfaced in 2017 and 2018, but in the end, nothing were deployed. Additionally, while weapons made in China were delivered to the government, they were both redistributed by next parties or long-agolysed to Syria. After the civil war broke out, no immediate revenue of weapons were made.
Despite TIP’s supposed rising risk to China’s regional security, Beijing has remained staunch to its decade-long modus operandi of non-intervention. It has been happy to fly on another nations ‘ surface in Syria with boots on the ground.
Beijing’s just significant step was to carry high-level discussions with Damascus to exchange information on the TIP’s actions starting in 2016. With Assad’s demise, this knowledge supply will stop.
China’s apparent lack of action sends a message that while Beijing is concerned by the fact that if battle-trained Edge insurgents – known for fighting like “lions” in Syria – make their way back to China in sufficient amounts, it will experience an insurrection several times stronger than the previous one because it is uncertain whether the Edge can and will return to China.
On the one hand, the TIP do not shy away from this objective in their propaganda. In Syria, they have notably failed to integrate into local communities, with language being the primary barrier. TIP militants forbid Arabs from entering Uyghur villages because they are not” Chinese,” which suggests that they continue to be ensconced in their Chinese homeland.
On the other hand, TIP militants who sold their homes in China before relocating to Syria with their families sent a message that they are still there. In addition, China’s security has significantly improved in recent years, making it difficult for militants to enter the country undiscovered in large numbers.
However, the Syrian civil war’s apparent end could shift the TIP’s calculus. The TIP no longer has to struggle to make ends meet in a small sliver of land in northern Syria for the first time in a decade. As such, the TIP could quickly set its militant sights elsewhere.
Beijing is concerned that TIP militants will re-establish themselves in neighboring Pakistan and Afghanistan while China itself is out of reach. That’s a high risk as the two countries have become safe havens in recent years for various terrorist organizations, including ISIS-K, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan ( TTP ) and the Balochistan Liberation Army ( BLA ).
Indeed, there has been an uptick in attacks on Chinese citizens and assets abroad in recent years, especially in Pakistan. Despite the lack of available evidence, Beijing believes these attacks stem from the TIP’s collusion with ISIS, al-Qaeda and the BLA to undermine China’s overseas interests and investments.
Therefore, should battle-hardened TIP militants return to Pakistan and join forces with the TTP, BLA and others, as Beijing claims is already happening, it would pose a serious threat to China’s strategic interests as its flagship project – the Belt and Road Initiative – runs through the country.
The likelihood of this scenario has increased exponentially as Assad’s ouster has diminished, and Russia and Iran’s ability to control and contain Syrian rebel groups and their allies has decreased.
” A , butterfly , flapping its wings in , China , can cause a , hurricane , in the Caribbean,” the old saying goes. Conversely, a frozen conflict thawing in Syria can erect roadblocks to China’s global ambitions. China needs to reevaluate its foreign policy toward Syria and other countries.
Yang Xiaotong is an assistant researcher at a Beijing-based independent , think tank.