The world was informed on Sunday ( December 8 ), suggesting that it had stopped believing that anything was possible. The violent government of Syria’s leader, Bashar al-Assad, is gone and the Syrian civil war may become coming to an end after 13 years of suffering.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ( HTS), an armed Islamist group with headquarters in Idlib in the north of Syria, seized the city of Damascus in just a few days, overrunning Aleppo and Homs and finally capturing Damascus. Assad, however, is reported to have fled with his home to Moscow.
The most positive observers see this as a chance for peace. Syria’s several armed factions are now finally being toppled, his main allies Russia and Iran are cooperating elsewhere, and a delicate calm is beginning to emerge between them.
Some warn that the subsequent vacuum could cause a continuation of erratic violence, similar to that which has plagued Libya since Muammar Gaddafi’s regime was overthrown and killed in 2011.
What did come last will depend just as much on the international rights as those in Syria. In 2013, I spent time in Syria chatting with members of the various organizations that merged into HTS, including the Palestinian al-Qaeda online. Armed groups like Units tend to listen when the global community tries to engage with them, as I learned from speaking with them.
A number of Islamist-backed organizations in northern Syria, including the Palestinian affiliates of al-Qaeda, known as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, united in the formation of HTS in 2017. Units had previously been pushed into a spot in the Idlib area. Despite being attacked by a government supported by Russian warplanes and Hezbollah fighters, it endured tenacious resistance.
Syria is at a crossroads and has many options open up. Some folks point to HTS’s Islamic roots. The earth has been attempting to stop this terrible situation since 2011 by a radical Islamist party coming to power in Syria.
Some claim that the organization has shifted away from its more extreme roots. Al-Qaeda was disbanded in 2016 as a result of Jabhat Fateh al-Sham’s decision to merge with various organizations to shape HTS.
Additionally, HTS has recently attempted to promote a more reasonable image and even promote religious tolerance. If its promises are to be believed, it may attempt to create a secure and peaceful Syria.
The activities of various nations that seek to engage Units and its affiliates will be crucial in shaping Syria’s future. My studies suggests that, at times, they will utilize shifts as a result of such speech. Organizations that have previously abused the laws of war does respond to global pressure and alter their behavior.
They will also, at periods, respond favorably to relationship by taking part in discussions and conflict resolution. But when ostracised, isolated or ignored, these organizations may do the exact same.
I spoke with a number of the various rebel groups while I was in Syria, and one thing I noticed was how ignored they were by the global society. A common from the Free Syrian Army, which was a partnership of rebel rebels that the US supported, complained about the challenges of upholding international humanitarian law without international support.
Islamist group soldiers criticized the duplicity of international companies. When they attempted to talk to governments and organizations, they were forced to unite with more moderate parties. In an effort to foster stronger global ties, an Islamic State captain actually asked me to send positive messages to my friends and family.
It would be wrong to completely agree with armed parties when they asserted a need for peaceful coexistence. But by the same coin, ignoring them wholly is unlikely to stop the fighting.
Is harmony possible?
It may be simpler to explain how we got to this point than to predict what will happen next. Assad’s government has long been propped up by its friends. Units saw an opportunity and seized it as Hezbollah and Iran were both reeling from their fight with Israel and Russia.
Although some are expressing gratitude for the ineffectiveness of the Russian and Persian interventions in Syria, it is doubtful that either country’s effect there will end. New developments could also bring the two closer together in cooperation that might include markets of weapons technologies or interventions abroad.
No nation may merely abandon their goals in Syria. For example, Russia has geopolitical air and naval bases there that are essential for the Kremlin to establish influence in the Middle East, the Mediterranean, and Africa. Russia does certainly give up on these quickly.
Turkey, a long supporter of HTS, seems to be in a solid position to influence activities. This may include pressing its advantage in its continued assault against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces ( SDF) in Syria’s northeast.
Although the SDF are merely National friends, it is doubtful that Donald Trump’s immediate foregoing of them in 2019 has been forgotten. Turkey used a power pump as justification for the US president’s decision to withdraw US military troops from Syria to launch an offensive against the Syrian Kurds.
The future of Kurdish freedom may, therefore, been in fear, though the battle-hardened SDF will likely not go down without a struggle.
How Syria’s HTS-controlled relationship with the Trump presidency is still a mystery. However, it’s difficult to imagine Trump becoming friends with Units, an armed party with historical links to Islamists, despite the fact that it’s unlikely that there will be more American involvement on the ground.
Meanwhile, Israel has seized temporary command of a demilitarized cushion zone in Syrian-controlled sections of the Golan Heights. Some apprehensions about a potential increase in fight there are expressed by some. Refugees living in five settlements close to the occupied places have been warned by the Israeli military to” remain home.” Additionally, some schools have switched to online groups in response to turmoil.
HTS is at the middle of these events in Syria, which have profound effects on the nation and the location. The group’s ability to hold onto power in Syria is still uncertain, and if so, what kind of program they will try to establish.
The regional and global powers ‘ responses may be crucial at this time, when partnering with HTS is crucial if the chance for peace is to be exploited.
William Plowright is associate professor in global stability, Durham University
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