Overview:
As different regional and global powers compete for control over Syria’s future, the fall of Bashar al-Assad has sparked a furious geopolitical conflict. The country’s scattered potential presents both opportunities and threats, from the United States advocating for politics to local rivals like Turkey and Saudi Arabia backing competing parties. In the face of sectarian conflict, extremist threats, and shifting global powers ‘ interests, Syria’s restoration will be the biggest challenge.
A sudden, deep, and intricate shift in the Middle East has been caused by Bashar al-Assad’s demise, sparking a high-stakes race for control and influence over the country’s future, with far-reaching effects on the region’s geopolitics and stability.
As regional powers with competing interests squabble to replace the energy pump and form the nation’s future state, the scattered Syria that emerges from Assad’s fate presents both opportunities and risks.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Turkey and Qatar are all no doubt anxious to assert their effect. Each country’s future plans are influenced by local priorities and ideological views by its own individual country.
The main issue for Egypt and the Gulf kings, specifically Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is preventing the fall of Islamist organizations that they perceive as a threat to their own systems.
These nations have long seen the Muslim Brotherhood as an existential risk, and they are likely to back rebel groups in post-Assad Syria that can thwart the effect of such Islamic organizations. Their intention is to influence Syria in a way that conforms to their own conservative ideologies, which oppose political Islam.
In contrast, Turkey and Qatar have been long-time followers of the Muslim Brotherhood and its members. They may drive for a Syria that favors organizations who support their cause.
Turkey, which is heavily involved in the Arab issue, may promote battling Shiite impact and will continue to support rebel groups with Islamist ideologies. This could lead to a tense ally of patriotic and Islamist forces that are in line with Turkey’s wider regional goals.
What do Israel and the US want?
Israel, which has long sought to undermine Assad’s regime and its supporters, especially Iran and Hezbollah, may welcome Assad’s drop. Israel may like that Syria remain fractious, with no strong central government and rebel-led rivalries, as a result of a unified and angry neighbor’s border becoming a further security threat.
Israel will probably continue conducting covert operations in Syria, focusing on any remaining Egyptian and Hezbollah property as well as any perceived danger groups.
Additionally, it is anticipated to keep its military presence in the area, especially along the Golan Heights, to prevent any one organization, whether a rebel party or an anti-Iranian proxy, from consolidating power and endangering Israeli interests.
In post-Assad Syria, the United States has its own collection of interests, with the main focus on preserving a foothold in the area and advancing its intellectual objectives.
Washington has been a strong supporter of Kurdish-led forces, particularly the Syrian Democratic Forces ( SDF). In the US’s wider efforts to promote liberal democratic norms in the Middle East, the country sees them as critical allies in the fight against ISIS.
But, the US will experience a delicate balancing act. The existence of Islamist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ( HTS ) complicates this vision, even though it supports a Syria that is governed by democratic principles. Even if some of these organizations, like the SDF, are perceived by regional actors like Turkey as enemies, the US will probably continue to support organizations that can counterislamism.
The need to stop ISIS or other radical groups from regaining control of US presence in Syria will determine how much of that country’s presence will grow. The US does seek to improve its influence on Syria’s political future with the departure of Assad and Russia’s preoccupation with the conflict in Ukraine, but it will face significant challenges because of the country’s shattered landscape and competing interests of numerous international and regional players.
The difficulties will be enormous as the joy of Assad’s collapse replaces the actuality of rebuilding Syria. Rebuilding the state will involve not only military victories but also economic reconstruction, democratic transition and cultural reconciliation. The route to stability may be hampered by various factions, heavy sectarian divisions, and the threat of fundamentalist organizations like ISIS.
European countries, especially the US, are likely to be asked for assistance in Syria’s rebuilding work, but this support will depend on the country’s political choice.
The important question is whether Syria will embrace liberal principles, as the West hopes, or shift toward Islamist management. The path taken by Syria’s fresh management, which may be dominated by organizations like Units, does play a crucial role in shaping the country’s potential.
Sanctions, diplomacy and the new reality
How the international community interacts with Syria’s new rulers will be one of the most pressing issues.
Many of the current power struggles, especially those connected to HTS, are viewed by the US and its allies as terrorist organizations. This presents a significant challenge for the US: how to strike a balance between the need for stabilization and the desire to avoid empowering forces that are seen as terrorists.
Russia and Iran, whose influence in Syria has been significantly diminished by the Assad regime’s sudden collapse, will also be in the geopolitical conflict. Russia, distracted by the Ukraine war, will likely be less able to assert its power in Syria.
Iran will need to reconsider its strategy and adopt a different position, possibly by supporting some rebel groups or engaging in negotiations with Damascus ‘ new political authorities.
While the fall of Assad marks a historic moment, Syria’s future remains highly uncertain. The true test will be how the country rebuilds politically, economically and socially.
The outcome is being shaped by regional and global powers, a conflict that could further destabilize the country. What is clear, though, is that the road ahead will be turbulent, with power struggles to come both within Syria and across the broader Middle East.