Koreans and the rest of the world were caught off guard by Yoon Suk Yeol’s surprising coup attempt. The declaration of martial law shocked Koreans and sent ripples through Washington and Tokyo despite the country’s harsh social conflict between progressives and conservatives.
Korea appeared to be on the verge of a possible violent conflict between the armed forces and a large number of activists for a few hours. The establishment of political organisations achieved a swift and comforting victory.
The rejection of civil community, the media, and even the liberal Peoples Power gathering to bow down to threats of repression echoed the National Assembly’s unanimous decision to overturn the military law declaration outside the building.
The ambiguous course of the upcoming months tempers the festival of democracy. Yoon is attempting to reach a pose of rebellion, hoping he may live.
On Saturday night, the National Assembly voted to remove the president from office, with protesters blocking the pavements of Seoul. The opposition plans to try again, but the ruling party politicians walked out on the matter, preventing the two-thirds majority voting that would be necessary for the impeachment. No matter what the result, Yoon’s law is effectively over.
Democratic party chief Lee Jae-myung will probably win if an early presidential election is held, after Yoon lost the previous battle by less than one percent.
Why President Yoon took this huge risk with seemingly little preparation and the only support of a select group of close allies still unresolved, not the least of which is why. How much was the martial ready to back Yoon’s rebellion? Why was Washington, which has invested so much in the achievement of the Yoon state, caught off guard?
What seems more obvious is that the Progressive Democratic Party’s replacement of Yoon may actually alter important aspects of South Korea’s foreign and security policies, starting with those with Japan and China, the United States, and North Korea.
One crucial section of the senate decision that the National Assembly was given evidence of contained hints at what might be on the progressive agenda. The resolution included this indictment of the government’s foreign policy, along with the serious crimes against Yoon that were most likely an illegitimate attempt to use the martial law rules.
” In inclusion, under the guise of so-called’ value diplomacy,’ Yoon has neglected political balance, antagonizing North Korea, China, and Russia, adhering to a ridiculous Japan-centered foreign policy and appointing Pro-Japan individuals to essential government positions, thus causing isolation in Northeast Asia and triggering a crisis of war, abandoning his duty to protect regional security and the people”.
This is interpreted by seasoned observers of Korean politics as a sign of how forward-thinking foreign policy will be both after Yoon leaves and if Lee Jae-myung is elected president.
” Now the opposition party has even more incentive to do a wholesale cleansing of all Yoon policies, including foreign policy”, Benjamin Engel, a visiting professor at Seoul’s Dankook University, told Toyo Keizai Online.
” If a normal democratic transition had taken place, we might have had a slightly healthier discussion about the benefits and drawbacks of what Yoon’s foreign policy accomplished and what needs to be preserved or revised.” That won’t happen now”.
Relations with Japan are at the top of the progressive target list, as the impeachment resolution makes clear. Yoon’s outreach to Japan has received a lot of criticism from the Democratic party, who claims that South Korea has repeatedly made concessions to Japan regarding issues from wartime history, such as the forced laborers, without receiving much in return.
Although there is a lot of public support for improving relations with Japan, Yoon’s ignominious demise may have tarnished that effort.
” If the opposition party grasps power, current Korea-Japan relations will go through a very rough time, as well as Korea-US relations”, predicts a former senior South Korean official who remains very engaged in Japan policy. In particular, the progress made in building trilateral security cooperation between Japan, Korea and the US” will no longer be viable”.
The opposition Democratic Party’s most powerful supporters continue to support positive relations with Japan, but they also stress the need to win the Korean public’s support and encourage Japan to be more forthcoming.
” The administration’s unilateral foreign policy approach has failed to build political momentum”, National Assembly member Wi Sung-lac, a former diplomat and close foreign policy advisor to former presidential candidate Lee, told this writer. ” Public opinion continues to decline, particularly regarding historical issues like Japan’s refusal to apologize and its denial of forced labor.”
Wi pledged that if the Democrats return to power, the” stance that Korea-Japan cooperation is necessary will remain unchanged”. But he added,” the pace of progress will depend on Japan’s response. If Japan responds constructively, there is significant potential for improving bilateral relations, though the speed and intensity of that improvement will vary”.
The potential change in Seoul’s government challenges Shigeru Ishiba’s government. As part of preparations to mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations, the prime minister had been making plans for a trip to South Korea in January. Ishiba has been more willing to address issues involving Japan’s colonial and military past than he has personally been about maintaining close ties with Korea.
At the least, this effort will have to deal with months of political uncertainty. A progressive government will eventually emerge and want to halt Korea-Japan’s ties. And that may be compounded by the return of Donald Trump, who does not share the Biden administration’s commitment to creating more durable trilateral cooperation.
” Now, the Japanese government must prepare for a perfect storm”, says Tobias Harris, the head of the Japan Foresight consulting firm.
Japan will have a US president who not only favors bilateral multilateral negotiations but also has shown little interest in strengthening trilateral cooperation. The swing to the left could happen in Tokyo in 2025 instead of 2027.
Progressives have also objected to US attempts to impose a de facto China containment strategy, as the impeachment resolution suggests. If Trump pushes hard in this direction, and makes demands on the alliance such as higher defense cost sharing, he may meet some resistance.
” But since the US-to-South Korea alliance is so well-liked, I don’t see Lee or another progressive trying to undermine it,” says Engels. Trump will give that a major impetus, according to Trump.
Lee, Engels says,” will be more neutral, I think, in US-China competition. However, even liberals are limited in how far they can travel from China. The general public in South Korea will oppose it.
An attempt to resume diplomatic contact with Kim Jong Un and North Korea might be a potential area of convergence between Trump and a progressive administration. Moon Jae-in’s progressive government supported Trump’s first administration’s efforts to reach a deal with Kim. It’s not entirely clear whether North Koreans will be interested in continuing this effort, even if the party will change in Seoul.
” Their current line is that the South is the enemy nation no matter who is in charge”, Fyodor Tertitskiy, an expert on North Korea and a Lecturer at Korea University, told Toyo Keizai Online.
” The previous left administration failed to deliver anything substantial for them– so it seems they (or, rather, Kim personally ) have lost any hope in South Korea. Having said that, I think they would definitely prefer the Democrats to People’s Power, since at least the left would be far less aggressive, and maybe even deferential in their policy towards Pyongyang”.
Indeed, Yoon has led a sharply anti-Communist turn in South Korea. In his declaration of martial law, he claimed to be assisting pro-North Korean forces that were attempting to overthrow the South Korean government.
In ultra-conservative circles, where Yoon was viewed as their savior, these views have been permeated for a while. But Yoon’s attempt to point the finger at Communists” will backfire and undermine his leadership”, says the former senior official.
For now, Yoon clings to power in Seoul. The former senior official describes him as having” a seige mentality because of recent all-out political attacks against him and his wife from the opposition party and even from within his own ruling party.”
Yoon’s desperation, sadly, may end up destroying one of the most significant achievements of his troubled time in office, the restoration of relations with Japan and the beginnings of serious cooperation.
At Stanford, Danel Sneider teaches on international policy.
This article was first published by The Oriental Economist. It is republished with permission.