InsideOver , is a popular European online media network. Roberto Vivaldelli, a journalist, posed some questions to me about US legislation and Ukraine on November 14. Users may find the original content in Italian , around. With Stephen Bryen’s agreement, this English-language version has been republished.
Robert Vivaldelli: Jake Sullivan just announced that Biden intends to obtain more money for Ukraine from the Congress. What do you think of this decision now?
Stephen Bryen: In the United States we may call Biden’s request for more Ukraine money a” Hail Mary Pass” ( a term used in American sports ). He is requesting that he show his support for Ukraine and to try to persuade the Republicans to help Ukraine in some way in the future. In my opinion, Congress may wait until Trump takes office before implementing the Biden request. Biden does n’t seem to have any faith in the measure.  ,
Conditions have changed since the last, huge optional for Ukraine. Big expenses have never improved Ukraine’s position. In reality, the Russians continue to make substantial gains against Ukraine’s military and proceed to destroy the Russian critical infrastructure, especially the power grid.
If the war continues, Ukraine could become non-recoverable in terms of infrastructure, and the Ukrainians who left the country wo n’t come back to a wasteland.
Vivaldelli: In your watch, what should we expect from a Trump administration concerning Ukraine? Do you believe that a US-Russian speech could put an end to the conflict?
Bryen: A lot depends on the actions of the Soviet leader. I think Trump wants to negotiate with Putin, but Putin, at least so much, wants to win the war in Ukraine, or nearly so, before he engages with Trump. Therefore, it is a kind of Kabuki.  ,
There are far more significant issues than Ukraine, including how to lessen the risk posed by Russia and Europe ( including the United States ). Trump and Putin want to discuss all of these subjects and much more.  ,
Trump will also have to consider the potential impact of a global turmoil and the future of the US. Who makes call first may be decided, we must delay. When his team has been assembled and has thoroughly discussed the proper position, I assume it will be Trump.
Vivaldelli: What does Russia’s requires be in such negotiations?
Bryen: Russia has a long list of what it wants regarding Ukraine. Russia is attempting to establish a pleasant relationship with Ukraine without any involvement with NATO. Some of Trump’s friends, such as the America First Policy Institute, argue for a 20-year wait before Ukraine is join NATO.
This is a non-starter because the Russians want NATO out of Ukraine immediately, now and in prospect. As long as they win the war, I do n’t believe Russia is willing to go any further.
Russia even wants Ukraine to remain demilitarized. Russia appears to want to seize any potential defense conflict in Ukraine, despite the possibility of sacrifice. Russia has previously annexed Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaphorize and Kherson.
It will require that Ukraine fully cede these regions.  , What remains to be determined are the borders of these regions and the conditions ( people, trade, security ) that will apply to the borders.
Russia wants to end Ukrainian oppression of the Russian Orthodox Church, Ukrainian attempts to eradicate Russian language and culture, and Russian citizens generally treated differently. To do this, Russian laws and regulations must be repealed.
The social climate in Kyiv and the battlefield’s progress determine how much money the Russians can get. The more Russia floats up Ukraine’s troops, the stronger its place in conversations becomes.
In regard to Kyiv and its state, the future is quite questionable. Because it is unlikely that there will be a Zelensky-led government, who the Russian speaker is is is of any significance. The Zelensky federal properly fall due to the current state of affairs on the field, in a few weeks or months.  ,
The US State Department, apparently, is working on a schedule for elections in Ukraine. Since creating a system for elections is a fierce challenge and may take too long to implement, this seems like an unattainable “ask.”  ,
In chaotic conditions, different rivals will try and seize key positions, including the Presidency, or Ukraine could resort to a military leadership, perhaps by bringing General Zaluzhnyi back as some sort of” supreme commander” . ,
Additionally, the Russians had put their own participant in command, creating a momentary government in exile and finally moving it to Kyiv. All of that is in the future, but the prospect is quickly creeping up in Ukraine.
Vivaldelli: According to the Telegraph, Trump’s peace program may include deploying German soldiers in a buffer area along the existing front lines. What are your emotions on this method?
Bryen: I have seen this thought floated here in the US. On the one hand, it clearly understands that no Trump advisor may permit US troops to be in Ukraine, perhaps as soldiers. Beyond that study, Russia will reject Russia’s suggestion of stationing German troops on Ukrainian soil because it is not fighting to deploy NATO forces in any territory close to its borders or its army.  ,
The reality is that any outside-the-Ukraine peacekeeping force would presume that the conflict would end up being a sort of standoff. That applies likewise to the notion of a “buffer zone”, which I do not see happening.
It could be, but it is rather doubtful, that Ukraine had become partitioned. Although there is a lot of talk about Poland annexing some of the former held American Ukraine, I believe this is just speculation right now.
Why would the Russians consent to reclaiming the majority of Ukraine? To give credit to Poland for acting as NATO’s offer force and providing weapons to Ukraine?  ,
Vivaldelli: On the field, studies indicate that Russia has launched a battle around Kursk, and in the Donbas area, Kyiv appears to be under considerable pressure. Would it be possible to offer your opinion on the current condition?
Bryen: There are reports that Russia has put up a huge “new” power of between 50, 000 to 100, 000 forces. Some claim that they will be stationed in Kursk, while others claim that they will be a part of a fresh unpleasant in the Zaphorize region.
The Ukrainians in Kursk are gradually being pushed back while using some of their best products and best models. I’m not sure what Putin’s desired timeline is for finishing the operations in Kursk, but I’m not sure if he’ll engage in negotiations until the entire Belarusian territory is reclaimed.  ,
Does that imply committing 50 to 100 thousand more army? Sometimes, it cannot be ruled out.  , Strategically, from what we can see, the Russians are relying heavily on aircraft to kill Ukraine’s resources and materials heading for Kursk and minimizing, to the level feasible, Russian casualties.
Zaphorize is another matter. Zaphorize would be the southern flank of a pincer if the Russians ‘ war goal was to encircle Ukraine’s army ( also known as a cauldron ). Once important towns like Chasiv Yar are taken and the Russian army can establish a northerly flank for the pincer to develop, the more northerly flank will develop.  ,
This would lead to the destruction of Ukraine’s army as a combatant force and a drive toward the Dnieper River. Whether this can happen is anyone’s guess, but Zelensky’s insistence holding onto Kursk as a “bargaining chip” is depriving Ukraine of an adequate force to hold the line in Donetsk, especially southern Donetsk.
Incidentally, the plan for the Kursk operation was cooked up by the British, but it did not contemplate a stalled operation and failure to reach key objectives, particularly the Kursk nuclear power plant. Ukrainian casualties in this operation are now running at over 30, 000 and these are losses, among elite units, Ukraine ca n’t afford.
Vivaldelli: Lastly, if a Trump administration decides to end US funding for Kyiv, what do you think Europe’s options would be? Without US assistance, would Europe be able to bear the military and financial costs alone?
Bryen: If the US stops supporting Ukraine, the war is over. For a variety of reasons, Europe wo n’t be able to replace the US. Firstly, Europe does not have weapons that can replace American supplies.  ,
Secondly, Europe does not have finance other than seized Russian funds. Thirdly, Europe’s politics are changing. The writing on the wall for Europe is the demise of Germany’s government coalition. The British continue to demand more aid for Ukraine, but they also lack both money and an army.  ,
Beyond the obvious arguments above, the Ukraine war would never have taken place if NATO, led by the US, had NATO remained outside of Ukraine. The NATO theory of continued expansion, which covers Russia’s entire former empire and includes much more than Ukraine, underlies this.
NATO will need to revert to being a defensive alliance rather than establish itself as an expansion alliance if NATO is defeated in Ukraine, as seems likely. NATO’s expansion is now based on a military or economic foundation, which presents a risk of a general war that Europe wo n’t be able to survive.
Roberto Vivaldelli ( 1989 ) has been a journalist since 2014 and collaborates with IlGiornale. it, Gli Occhi della Guerra and the daily newspaper L’Adige. His articles have been published on international websites like LobeLog and are translated into various languages.
At Asia Times, Stephen Bryen is the senior correspondent. He also served as the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s staff director and its deputy undersecretary of defense for policy.  , This article , was also published on his , Weapons and Strategy , Substack, and is republished with permission.