Pacific Forum published this article at its original publication. It is republished with authority.
The American people’s choice of leader is the common social shame, which is very accurate.
The empire has endured under the leadership of 14 US president and 16 Australian prime ministers since the signing of the ANZUS convention in 1951. One of those prime ministers, Kevin Rudd, now Australia’s ambassador in Washington, draws on that history to buttress the bromide:” We actually , do n’t have a view , about partisan preferences within this country. That’s a decision for you all to sort out”.
However, the bromide has various Republican and Democrat resemblances as Canberra approaches the US election results.
Australia believes that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both provide “more of the same” in their respective forms. The meaning of” same” is where Canberra’s alliance confidence takes on contrasting hues. Canberra had  , expect , more of the same from a Harris management and , hope , for more of the same from another Trump presidency.
The Harris” identical” is a significant improvement over the Trump administration, which delivered. The Trump” equal” is based on the success of the diplomatic partnership during his presidency from 2017 to 2020, despite a , serious early , alarum.
Under either Harris or Trump, Australia wants to dig what’s been achieved by Joe Biden. An impressive accomplishment is expanding and approving a proper empire that is in its eighth decade, especially given the significant role the US plays in American plan. However, Biden’s plan for an ally was accomplished in the following ways:
- the AUKUS , atomic submarine , arrangement,
- the creation of the Quad grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the US,
- America’s step-up in the South Pacific, as Washington declared a “renewed relationship with the Pacific Islands”, responding to Australia’s see that China’s problem creates” a , state of permanent contest , in the Pacific”,
- and the influx of US military personnel onto American ground in a new era of alliance integration, which will result in the establishment of a US-Australian mixed intelligence center in Canberra.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (” Quad” ) is one embodiment of Australia’s more-of-the-same ambition. The value of the grouping has been boosted by Biden, who held six Quad conferences, four of them in person. The second Quad ministerial meetings happened during Trump’s president, but, so Trump has some basic possession. Trump’s supporters say he will keep the Quad. A recent example of Asian proper structures benefits from both Republican and Democratic roots.
Any mention of China is avoided in the standard dialect of Quad. If the conference is the information, however, finally it’s all about China and Beijing’s violent searching in Asia.
At Biden’s last Quad conference in Delaware in September, the leader had a “hot camera” instant when he was heard telling the other leaders in what was supposed to be a closed session:” China continues to behave violently,  , testing us all , across the region, and it’s real in the , South China Sea, the East China Sea, South China, South Asia, and the Taiwan Straits”.
Biden said that while Chinese president Xi Jinping was focusing on “domestic financial challenges”, he was even “looking to get himself some political place, in my watch, to aggressively pursue China’s attention”.
Australia finds peace in the fact that there is a rare bipartisan consensus in Washington regarding the conflict with China despite all the groups in US politics. And, whether Trump or Harris is the champion, the next president may realize that the core balance of global power this century may be , set in the Indo-Pacific.
The balance-of-power assessment drives official statements of American strategic doctrine. Canberra’s 2023 Defense Strategic Review declares:” The Indo-Pacific is the most , essential geostrategic region , in the world”. The 2024 National Defence Strategy courts that the world opposition is” sharpest and most consequential , in the Indo-Pacific”.
The alliance should be strong and growing in value as a result of this proper logic. That’s why Canberra , expects , more of the same if Vice President Harris is elected as president. The , hope , about a minute Trump administration is the crunch when approach comes up against character.
Australia tries to bolster the alliance with several layers of past and determination. The art of this endeavor is to lavish compliment on the US while not criticizing Donald Trump. This is the powerful method employed the first time, and the current Labour government is following the text.
Prime ministers who are retired do n’t have to follow diplomatic orders. And Australia’s next longest serving excellent chancellor, John Howard, has damned Trump as unfit for office.
As primary minister from 1996 to 2007, Howard was the heartiest of US friends. In 2009, President George W. Bush presented Howard with America’s highest human pride, the Presidential , Medal of Freedom.
In typical circumstances, Howard said, “instead of supporting a Democratic success,” but not with Trump as the applicant:” I believe his refusal to accept the outcome of the most recent election and his numerous attempts to reverse that outcome were not compatible with politics. When you play the democratic game, you’ve got to accept the democratic result”.
Malcolm Turnbull, the Liberal prime minister who addressed Trump as president in 2017, predicts that Trump will win once more this time.
In an article for , Australian Foreign Affairs,  , Turnbull describes Trump as “bombastic”, “erratic”, and “very much the , big, bullying billionaire personality“, writing:” This type is narcissistic, driven, totally focused on accumulating wealth and power for themselves. The one thing I knew about this personality was that if you bully or deceive them, you only get one more bully. Punching them in the nose ( metaphorically or actually ) is rarely successful either. To succeed with them, you need to stand up to them , – but courteously. The only thing they respect is strength”.
Turnbull writes that Australia’s current prime minister, Anthony Albanese, ca n’t grovel but must be professional, courteous, and disciplined in disagreeing with elements of Trump’s agenda “on climate, trade and, potentially, Ukraine”. If Australia has business to do with Trump, Turnbull says, only the prime minister can seal the deal, concluding:” The leaders of America’s friends and allies, including Australia, will be among the few who can speak truthfully to Trump. He can shout at them, embarrass them, even threaten them. But he cannot fire them. If there is a second age of Trump, their character, courage, and candor may be the most significant aid they can offer to the United States.
As the bromide proclaims, Australia will work with either Harris or Trump. However, a Biden administration that served Australia’s interests and strategy would provide “more of the same” from Harris. In order to keep the alliance in place and stop it from faltering or falling, Canberra will use all manner of personal, political, and policy ratchets to do so if Trump is elected president. The alliance’s long history provides a lot of advice on how to balance individual policy differences using broad agreement. even negotiating deals between leaders who have opposing or conflicting personalities.
Graeme Dobell , ( graemedobell@aspi .org. au )  , is a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Since 1975, he has covered Australian and international politics, foreign affairs, defense, and Asia-Pacific.