It’s fretting period once again in Japan.  , You see, Japan frets every four years when America chooses a fresh leader.  , ( Americans fret too, but that’s another story. )
Most observers believe the Japanese do like the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, over past president Donald Trump.
One primary purpose:  , Trump is “unpredictable” – even though you’d think that after four years of dealing with him, the Japanese had figured him out.
However, the fear Trump might ask Japan or, better said, its bureaucrats and foreign policy class to do something they do n’t want to do is unforeteable for Japan.
It should n’t come as a surprise that Tokyo may be asked to do a few things outside of its comfort zone given that the United States is responsible for protecting Japan, and certainly after 60 years of the US-Japan Alliance.  , And especially now that the threat from the People’s Republic of Chine ( PRC ), not to mention Beijing’s friends in Pyongyang and Moscow, is higher than ever.
Unregardless of who is in the White House, one of Japan’s various neuroses is the long-standing anxiety of” Japan passing”: the possibility that a new administration may strike a deal with the PRC that leaves Japan out in the cool.  , And there used to be worry of ‘ Japan bashing’ – blaming Japan for America’s deficiencies – though that is n’t heard so many these days.
And there’s the deep-rooted worry that America lacks full commitment to defend Japan.  , So the Japanese government’s regular emphasis on discussing “extended deterrence” – or in other words, America’s devotion to employ nuclear weapons to defend Japan – , when top leaders meet.
Worry of Japan being turned down for more money for “host state help” for US troops in Japan is also on the list.  , This is Tokyo’s special care when it comes to Donald Trump.  ,
But that’s also a diversion, if not absurd.  ,
In the grand scheme of things, the sums he may ask for are bag change and if it helps keep the US military power on its part.  ,
However, Japan might be willing to spend any funds requested for the Japan Self Defense Force ( JSDF) in order to enhance military personnel ‘ warfighting prowess, war stocks, and terms of service.  , JSDF missed recruitment targets by 50 % last year.  , Well, 50 %.  , And part of the reason is give and circumstances are bad.
May Japan be concerned about Trump?
No truly.  ,
Take a look at what he accomplished during his first word. He also valued Japan, which was his best foreign policy group since the first Reagan administration.
What did he ask Japan to do that it would n’t have done in the first place, despite the worry that he was going to sabotage the US-Japan alliance and make unreasonable demands?  , Little significantly.
Regarding financial stress, what about appointing Japan to a business union boycott?
There was nothing to write home about.
Cynics might speculate that Shinzo Abe’s gifting Trump with an expensive sport vehicle and hitting the links with the president soothed points to the point where the US did n’t rely on as much as it may have, such as getting its military and culture in condition to fight a potential war.  ,
Had Trump’s actions have been so disastrous?
Do n’t expect much to change much from Trump version 1 this time around.
As for Japan preferring a Harris administration– it, also, are four decades of factual data.
And perhaps a Harris version 2 is seen as a comfortable extension of the Biden administration, which has been characterized by the bonhomie of summit meetings declaring the bilateral relationship is stronger than ever and a series of scripted military exercises sending a message of bilateral commitment.
However, in the end, Japan was not actually asked to make any sort of demands.
And no economic fights are being fought, aside from Harris and Trump’s opposition to Nippon Steel’s plan to buy US Steel.  , As for that one, wait until the election is over and things might change.
But here’s something for Tokyo to consider when weighing the candidates: the new administration’s China policy.
And that really matters, given Beijing visceral intent to teach Japan a lesson.
Trump’s administration was the first to confront the PRC since Nixon visited China in 1972.  ,
Beijing was backfooted. The Trump administration began to consider the PRC as a rival and was beginning to consider rebuilding the US military as well as developing alliances into warfighting alliances. Russia and North Korea’s ties to the PRC have grown to the point where Tokyo gets even more headaches.
The US military restoration? There was discussion in the Biden administration, but not enough was done.
And if Japan worries about the US commitment, consider this:
During the Biden administration, 250, 000 Americans died from fentanyl of Chinese origin.
The Biden administration’s response?  , Setting up a working group with the Chinese to discuss the problem.
If Washington simply ignores the mass murder, it will be simple to come up with an excuse not to defend Japan.  , After all, we ca n’t have nuclear war and World War Three.  ,  ,
The Americans will decide on their president.  ,
Japan can only adjust accordingly.
No matter who prevails, Japan will do well to prepare for its own defenses, which will require much more than it has already done to date.
But the key is this: Would Tokyo prefer to have a government that Beijing dislikes? Or one that Beijing believes it can do business with ( and get its way )?