On Monday ( November 4), Indonesia held its first-ever diplomatic naval exercise with Russia. Three Russian ships and a support vessel were present, and the drills were scheduled to last from November 4 to November 8.
The activities, known as Orruda 2024, have been interpreted in some quarters as Indonesia’s new leader, Prabowo Subianto, tilting the Southeast Asian nation aside geopolitically from the US and its supporters and toward Russia and apparently China.
However, there is a general discussion in Jakarta regarding the exercise, with some claiming that it is simply a response to Russia’s growing security ties to the US and its supporters.
To be sure, there is no denying that President Prabowo, who assumed department on October 20, is strong on cultivating warm relations with Russia, a long-time company of Indonesian hands.
In July, when Prabowo was president-elect but also serving as defence minister, he traveled to Moscow and met with President Vladimir Putin. Prabowo praised Russia as a “great buddy” of Indonesia during the journey and expressed political optimism that ties between the two countries would continue to improve.
On October 25, Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono announced Indonesia’s desire to join BRICS while attending the expanding bloc’s summit in Kazan, Russia – a clear break from the past Joko Widodo administration’s non-committal position.
There was no denying that Sugiono received the best education because she is a close friend of Prabowo. So, Prabowo’s first big foreign policy walk as national head was Russia-friendly.
Importantly, Indonesia and China have begun debate about the possibility of conducting diplomatic joint military exercises, which could be groundbreaking since they have not been held for nearly a decade.
Indonesia suspended them in 2015 as a result of the two countries ‘ ongoing conflict over the North Natuna Sea, which are Indonesian territorial waters that fall under China’s nine-dash range state to almost all of the South China Sea. These preliminary actions may irritate Americans and allies, but in their wider context they are less serious.
For one, despite the standard branding, this year’s drills are not the first day Indonesia has held a naval exercise with Russia. The international Komodo Exercise, held four times since 2014 and most just in 2023, included Russia from the outset alongside the US, Japan and China, among others. Holding a smaller bilateral training with Russia may be a significant growth, but it’s rarely a step modify.
However, while serving protection minister, Prabowo oversaw the continuous expansion of Indonesia’s protection ties with the US and its allies. In August, Indonesia signed a new security pact with Australia, hailed by the latter as the most important safety contract in the two neighbors ‘ story, with Prabowo shepherding the agreement on Indonesia’s side.
Super Garuda Shield, an annual martial training involving Indonesia and the US plus aligned capabilities, grew in size and difficulty under Prabowo’s view. This time, the practice ran for a fortnight from August 26 to September 26 and involved some 5, 500 forces from Indonesia, the US, Japan, Singapore, the UK, Australia, Canada, France, Brazil, Brunei, India, South Korea, New Zealand and Thailand.
By contrast, the Orruda 2024 naval exercise being conducted with Russia right now is obviously smaller in size, lasting only four times and involving only a few hundred soldiers overall.
As one expert, who preferred to remain unnamed, frankly put it:” It’s kind of a pitiful practice if you compare it with Garuda Shield. This is similar to the shift you give a man after consuming a delicious meal at Garuda Shield.
Fauzan Malufti, a security analyst and part of JATOSINT, which provides open-source knowledge on Indonesia’s defense, was less contemptuous.
” Given the number of warships and the exercise materials, I do n’t think it’s merely symbolic”, he said. But, Malufti agreed that if compared to activities with American forces, Orruda was evidently much smaller and less complicated.
Zooming out, Prabowo’s willingness to amuse hot ties with Russia and possibly boost military assistance can be viewed as part of Indonesia’s classic choice for non-bloc positioning.
In terms of security, reaching out to Russia and China might serve as a signal that Indonesia’s close ties to the US do not indicate that it has abandoned its space for political maneuvering.
According to Fitriani Bintang Timur, a senior researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute,” I privately think Prabowo would like to emulate India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who positioned India as a member of the Quad while also meeting with Putin.”
She cited Prabowo’s unanticipated request for a peace deal with Ukraine at the Shangri-La summit in Singapore in 2023 as evidence of his desire to establish Indonesia as a dominant middle-class on the global stage.
However, Prabowo’s well-known preference for foreign plan, his desire to cut an important figure on the global stage, and his unpredictability may be what are driving a foreign policy that is attention-grabbing but does not actually signify a course change.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank’s deputy executive producer, Shafiah Muhibat, acknowledged that some members of Indonesia’s foreign policy community were surprised by moves like joining the BRICS but unsure of their true significance.
Jokowi is known for his ability to attract attention, but he also enjoys being on the international stage, she said. Whether these may add up to a clear and specific proper perspective, though, is still uncertain, Shafiah said, suggesting the situation may be clearer over the next year.
For the time being, this year’s marine practice seems more important for Russia than Indonesia, according to Radityo Dharmaputra, a teacher and specialist in Indonesia-Russia connections at Airlangga University.
Russia can demonstrate that, despite American attempts to isolate it diplomatically, it still has strong diplomatic relations with an important middle power, he said.
The exercises have the potential to grow even further. Russia, I believe, also understands that Prabowo wants a global stage to showcase his abilities. If Russia gives that, and the West overly criticizes Prabowo, he will lean to Russia more”, Dharmaputra predicted.