SINGAPORE – With America’s election day roughly below, governments and businesses across Asia are preparing for the next US presidency. Some experts believe that Trump 2.0 may follow the Biden-Harris administration, making him the equivalent of Trump 1.0.
True, a triumph for Kamala Harris may entail a continuation of the customary US strategy for working with partners and friends to best enhance the US national interest, with the exception of President Donald Trump’s first name.
Some people think Trump’s” America First” international policy, which looks at the world through a narrow bilateral camera, will continue with his administration’s plan to run the Oval Office.
After surviving the first one, Bilahari Kausikan, past permanent director of Singapore’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs, predicts that nations in the region would be well prepared for a second Trump name.
” The Trump administration was n’t all bad. Real, his walking away from the TPP was a surprise that also reverberates, but we adapted through the CPTPP and RCEP”, he wrote, referring to local trade agreements. ” The universe did not end. And it was in our best interests to see some of the items Trump did to reaffirm America’s authority.
” President]Barack ] Obama made prettier speeches, but President Trump understood— perhaps instinctively — hard power better”, he added.
True, Trump’s America First strategy did own triumphs, in large part because his supervision had talented and efficient officials, political appointees and job officials working to implement his policies.
However, it’s unlikely that a second Trump expression would bring that same expertise and experience to his defense.
Issues of devotion
One swears an oath of business when they enter the US government to” support and defend the United States Constitution.”  , During Trump’s first term, some of his officials took that vow really.
Chief of Staff John Kelly, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, and Vice President Mike Pence were a few notable cases.
Additionally, dedicated job state officials supported the application of Trump’s policies and made them successful and in line with US rules, even if they did not personally disagree with some of them.
In a second Trump expression, for officials – social and career – will be mostly lost. When discussing how a second Trump administration may be staffed, Howard Lutnick, Trump 2024 change group co-chair, said potential officials will only be tapped , if they prove “loyalty” to the previous president.
This probably means that the people who were in charge of the first Trump administration’s accomplishments, like as reviving the Quad collaboration in 2017 to combat China militarily and politely in the Indo-Pacific region and launching Trump’s trade war in response to Beijing’s actions, will no longer be there.
RINOs — Republicans in Name Only — will not be tolerated under a Trump 2.0 leadership. Making fealty to Trump a prerequisite for democratic appointments will undoubtedly lower the caliber of his presidency because no one party has a stranglehold over the poor choices of political appointees.
Trump received additional authority to appoint himself in the final few months of his first term, many of whom are responsible for international policy and national security. He did this in order to end what he deemed the” Deep State.”
Trump appears to see his administration as a group of democratic bureaucrats and officials blocking his ability to impose state policies as dedicated job public servants who collaborated with political appointees to best achieve each president’s policy goals in accordance with US law.
He gave the” Deep State” an order to demolish it, giving him the authority to appoint loyalists instead of career officials. Joe Biden, the president’s successor, rescinded the order right after taking office, but Trump had probably resume it as one of his first acts as professional.
The destruction work under Trump 2.0 is already being carried out. While legally a non-profit, non-partisan institute, The America First Policy Institute ( AFPI ) is led and staffed by officials in Trump’s first term and serves as his government-in-waiting.
This author has had five sessions with AFPI reps. In my relationships, its workers have been available to dialogue with US company society representatives. I found many of them intelligent, dedicated and well-prepared, and I have no fear they may be effective if in state.
AFPI’s plan book says,” Agencies should be free to remove workers for any non-discriminatory cause, with no additional appeals”. That means that political appointees was fire civil servants for a wide range of reasons, including for disobeying Trump if they believed his actions to be unlawful or illegal, or for expressing opposition to federal policies, such as climate change denial.
Diplomatic and national security personnel will be in high demand for policy if Trump wins a second term, which means he wo n’t be hands-on with managing foreign affairs.
The code will get” who gets the assets to handle problems in the region,” according to Mike McCurry, a press secretary for President Bill Clinton who also worked for the State Department.
” The vocation foreign company officials and civil workers I worked with at State were systematically committed to adhering to administrative guidelines and laws. The US’s ability to accomplish its foreign policy objectives may be affected by their loss, according to McCurry.
” For the political appointees, I am guessing that those who might be qualified are going to be absent, and those who get jobs may be significantly qualified, and it will get them a year or two to have an effect, but they will”, he added.
Enter the” Shallow State.”
Kurt Tong, a former occupation foreign company commander who served as US ambassador to APEC and US consul-general to Hong Kong, told this author,” I find stress about the existence of a’ Deep State’ of skilled and hard-working people working for America as a person who has invested more than 40 years in understanding Asia and thinking about what is best for the region, including 30 years specifically charged with promoting US interests there.
” Do we want a’ Shallow State’ in Washington? Why would that be beneficial? According to him, it appears that the” Deep State” has effectively served political figures from both parties.
Many people anticipate an exodus of the career officials required to develop and implement policy effectively if Trump wins. If so, they will take with them decades of experience and relationships.
This will reduce regional officials ‘ years of involvement in developing relationships with their Washington, DC counterparts, who have previously transitioned from administration to administration, as well as erode their expertise in policy-making and implementation.
Elections have consequences. If Trump wins a second term, he should have the right to carry out an America First policy as he sees fit as chief executive.
However, an” Trump First” policy developed and carried out by those who are loyal to the president first and foremost, and not by the counsel and guidance of career foreign service officials in the room. Leaders and policymakers in Asia may soon have to grapple and contend with this new US reality.
Since 2003, Steven R. Okun has been employed in Singapore as the CEO of APAC Advisors. He was the US Department of Transportation’s deputy general counsel prior to the Clinton administration.