“( A Trump or Harris win is ) two roads to the same cliff”, said Mr Tangen.
Also, Mr Steven Okun, top assistant from the public affairs advisory firm APAC Advisors, told CNA that whoever takes the Oval Office will not have “directional shift” in China policy.
” US-China plan will be the same under either a Harris or Trump administration. There will be more taxes and more investment limits”, he said.
Both candidates for president have now made it clear what they think of China.
” I will make sure … that America, never China, wins the competition for the 21st millennium”, pledged Ms Harris in late August when she accepted the Democratic nomination for the presidency.
However, her Republican rival Mr Trump- who launched a business war against China while in the White House from 2017 to 2021- has vowed to get even tougher on China and” totally eliminate dependent” on the state of 1.4 billion people.
At a recent public lecture in Singapore, Dr. Chen Dongxiao, a senior research fellow and president of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies ( SIIS), said that China is clear-eyed on this and that a Trump or Harris presidency would determine how much of the world’s No 2 economy is contained.
Dr. Chen emphasized that he would have four more years in business without the pressure of re-election if Trump were to win. A US senator may just serve two terms under American law.
He explained that this would be of concern to China, as Mr Trump may have “more area and potential” to mobilise federal companies in order to provide his” aggressive, anti-China isolation plan and measures”.
As observers have noted, China does not want to be accused of meddling in the US vote, so it is not expected to formally state or even mention who it wants to replace as America’s next president. Authorities in China have asserted repeatedly that the US presidential election is an internal matter.
” They do n’t have a vote. They do have a preference. But when they do n’t get their preference, they have to work with whoever occupies the Oval Office in the White House”, said Dr Choong on Beijing’s perspective, based on his conversations with Chinese academics.
The former or the opposition party’s candidate comes out on top, according to Professor Jia Qingguo, past dean of the Peking University School of International Studies and older member of China’s top political advisory body. In this case, a Harris presidency would be more advantageous for Beijing.
” The reason is in a presidential vote, the opposition party would denounce or has to criticize the ruling party’s plans. At a recent event in Singapore, he explained that generally the opposition party prospect would denounce the ruling group for being too soft on China.
” When they get elected, they would have to glory some of their plan promises-  , whether they are realistic or no- and ( when trying to do so ), the marriage would be in trouble”, he added.
Prof. Jia also cited the possibility of confusion as a result of the presidential change, which might lead to more tense exchanges between the Chinese authorities and the new US management.
A president-elect takes over the federal government’s management from the current leader in the US, giving the incoming head and their group time to prepare for management.
In contrast, he predicted that a victory by the former party candidate, particularly Ms. Harris, may result in a more smoothly transition and some degree of policy continuity-predictability.