There has been much written about the impact of Israel’s disastrous attacks on Hezbollah on Egyptian policy in the Middle East, but little about the impact of a rogue state in the Western Hemispheric.
Given its total disrespect for international sanctions and condemnation, most recently in response to a falsified election triumph that was denounced by virtually the entire political world, many people will assume the Venezuelan regime is afraid of no additional developments.
However, the decline of Iran’s Axis of Resistance – of which Venezuela has been a crucial honourable member – may prove a harsh test of the resolve of Nicolás Maduro’s inside circle.
Venezuela and Iran have viewed one another as far greater than their colleagues and matching ever since Hugo Chavez’s victory in 1999. The self-proclaimed” G2″ have sought, hard, methods to bail out each other’s markets and therefore jointly protect themselves from the effects of American sanctions against their petrol sectors.
Iran has served as a valuable advisor to Maduro on how to properly evade sanctions, but reality is that neither country has ever been able to significantly increase trade volumes.
A shared philosophy that challenges what they describe as US colonialism has been the driving power behind their capacity. It is not just a logical position of objectives, but it is also a fundamental, spiritual connection that permeates both governments ‘ foreign policies.
When Chávez passed away in 2013, Iran’s then-President Mahmud Ahmadinejad declared that Chavez did return to restore world peace and justice, along with Jesus Christ and the Hidden Imam. In return, when the conservative Egyptian President, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a plane crash earlier this year, Maduro paid tribute to an “excellent human being” and “unconditional companion of our state”.
Venezuela came very close to using robots, missiles, and other products when it staked a claim over the place of Guyana this season, but Iran has extended its military aid to Caracas to shore up its location and job power in the area.
Iran also provides the Maduro intelligence company DGCIM and another repression-controlling forces with knowledge on intelligence and torture.
Venezuela has made its place accessible to Iranian officials who are plotting killings of US officials in retribution for the shooting of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in return for that favour. The IRGC has been incredibly active in Venezuela’s safety services for many years and has been incredibly successful in sharing its knowledge of government survival.
The partnership has been effective and jointly reinforcing, but the activities of the last few days have shaken its foundations.
Through an extensive system of proxy forces in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, Iran’s power and influence have relied on the threat of retaliation against Israel and its supporters. Tehran is in an extremely tough position with no viable options to reassert itself because this system is collapsing more quickly than almost anyone anticipated.
Israel may still experience difficulties as a result of the launch of an uncertain ground operation and the ongoing war on many fronts, but the Egyptian Axis has nevertheless proven to be extremely vulnerable.
Maduro’s problem is that if the G2 turns into the G1, he may lose the trust of his inner group, which has so far protected him and kept him in authority.
Popular support does not contribute to the Cuban regime’s longevity; polls reveal that the country’s citizens largely dislike Maduro and the suffering he has caused them.
The government has survived because an exceedingly small group of well-placed defense “elites” has benefited from Maduro’s support. His continued support of their passions is what they believe will best serve their needs. However, as we know from history, supporters of this kind will abandon their patrons when they believe they no longer have a reliable means of preserving their status.
As long as Venezuela you count itself as one of a small group of autocratic states who are actively asserting their right to maintain rule in the face of widespread opposition, that path is open. Where does the comparatively hopeless Maduro administration stand in contrast to the regime in Caracas, which appears to be far more resilient and strong than the Iranian government, which cannot protect its vital interests?
There is no denying that some Miraflores Palace hardliners may be staring at one another this week and wondering when the time is right to take proactive action. If you’re Nicolás Maduro, that should be a serious cause of concern.
The author is the leader of YaCasiVenezuela, a movements supporting liberty, justice and democracy in Venezuela.