According to a US State Department 2020 approach report titled” US Strategy for Central Asia 2019– 2025: Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity,” Washington aims to acculturate Central Asia into its sphere of influence. To date, its initiatives have  , come up somewhat and miserably short.
It’s not too quickly for Washington’s foreign policy experts to start considering a new strategic approach to this great region rich in natural resources and historical significance for transatlantic connection as a fresh US administration is expected to take business next month.  ,
What would it take for a new US Embassy in Central Asia? For beginners, it would prioritize political engagement, de-emphasize political adventurism and modest ideological pronouncements.
Diplomacy, which usually presupposes speech and settlement, is the smartest, most cost-effective way to resolve problems in an progressively unstable and unsafe world.  ,
Therefore, it would be wise for the US State Department and the rest of the DC foreign policy formation to prevent equatering strength with failure and pointless “forever war” as if the current conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan were insufficient to spark new thought.
Also, a new emphasis on politics should not be construed as protectionism, which is impossible even if it were socially acceptable, which it is not. Instead, it may indicate a revival of the wonderful American foreign policy practices of John Quincy Adams, William Henry Seward, Dean Acheson, George Kennan, Henry Kissinger and George Shultz.
Some disingenuous people contend that bright politics does not imply peace in a bid to stop any alternatives to the United States ‘ current foreign policy. It may end the inclination of so many US foreign policy elites to consider good and bad as a straightforward logic. The US needs a foreign plan based on morality, no dogmatism.
When Washington persuades local states that they should act as independent citizens rather than as pawns on a political chessboard and that they should pursue socially beneficial economic policies, which are frequently misinterpreted as progress and prosperity, will gain new strategic momentum.
The US State Department must exert more pressure on Central Asians to persuade them that Washington’s mentoring and foreign aid initiatives are not intended to change the world, lead to the implementation of historically antiquated ideologies, or make the claims of the area financially dependent on the US. However, these perceptions are widespread in the region today.
Washington would be wise to attune its support for the “winner-take-all” class of geoeconomics, which disobeys Central Asia’s goal of achieving sustainable growth through the proper and fair planning, usage, and control of limited natural resources in the assistance of local unity and economic integration.
Presidential treatment
It will be difficult for the United States to catch up with China, Russia, and Turkey in the battle for power in the Eurasian heartland.
This is due to the strong historical, cultural, and geographic disparity between Eastern and Western customs and ways of thinking, as well as its rivals ‘ head start in trade and transportation connectivity.
The single metric of US versus China exports to Azerbaijan over the past few years provides insight into Washington versus Beijing’s economic engagement throughout the region.
Since year-end 2018 through the second quarter of 2024, Chinese exports to Azerbaijan, located on the western rim of the Caspian Sea, have ballooned four times from approximately US$ 40 million to over$ 160 million/per month.
US exports to Azerbaijan increased by$ 40 million over the same time frame, matching the level of Chinese exports five years prior, starting from a much lower base of just around$ 20 million. Similar trends can be seen in the growth rates of Chinese exports to other Central Asian countries.
The next US president should travel to the region if Washington truly wants to strengthen its ties with Central Asia. No US president has ever visited Central Asia ( defined as any country excluding Afghanistan, which Donald Trump visited in 2019 ), which is a source of great dissatisfaction for the leaders of the region. A visit like this could significantly alter the relationship.
President Joe Biden has settled in the area with frequent references to its strategic significance and a one-time, highly scripted 45-minute ceremonial pow-wow with Central Asian heads of state on the United Nations General Assembly’s 2023 sidelines.
That may be better than nothing, but it is insufficient given Central Asia’s strategic significance and desire to defend its independence from external power meddling.
In sharp contrast, the heads of state of China, Russia and Turkey, as well as India, South Korea and other Eurasian countries, have traveled to Central Asia some 40 times since 2019. Likewise, the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have met face-to-face with their counterparts or traveled to foreign capitals over 100 times.
Central Asian officials want the United States to go beyond” Zoom call diplomacy” and get down to real business, i. e., quit saying. We care so much about your independence, drop the criticism of their social policies and their inadequacy, which are frequently deeply incompatible with Central Asian traditional values, and acknowledge that multipolarity ( witness BRICS), like it or not, is gaining momentum and wo n’t fade away.
The US must accept and face the reality of Central Asia in its present form in order to successfully pursue American interests in the area. Despite all the publicity and the ballyhooed launch of a rare earth metals initiative, the 2023 New York” C5 1″ meeting between Biden and regional heads of state did not account for decades of wasted diplomatic time.  ,
Various US policies, including the financing of major infrastructure, have stalled across the region as if bogged down in a Karakum desert sandstorm. Tellingly, most Central Asian leaders skipped this year’s UN General Assembly confab, while the upcoming 16th BRICS Summit ( October 22-24 ) is expected to attract over 23 heads of state.
Central Asians will undoubtedly continue to communicate with the United States, but if Washington does n’t deliver soon on their part, they will undoubtedly travel elsewhere to obtain the best infrastructure, logistics, and mining deals that China and other countries have to offer. This only becomes logical when the US de facto leaves the equation.
Stick to what the document’s title,” US Strategy for Central Asia 2019– 2025: Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity,” says in black and white and clearly:” The United States ‘ primary strategic interest in the region is to build a more stable and prosperous Central Asia that is free to pursue political, economic, and security interests with a variety of partners on its own terms.
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, president of Kazakhstan, and other regional leaders of state, are expressing their hope that the US will follow through. The Kazakh leader has characterized the objectives of Central Asian diplomacy as follows:” Kazakhstan ‘s]diplomacy ] is very simple and clear – we do not believe in zero-sum games. For all in the heart of Eurasia, we want to replace the” Great Game” with” Great Gain.” We are interested in sustaining and growing trust, friendship, and strategic partnership with our neighbors as well as with all nations who are actively interested in expanding Kazakhstan’s cooperation.
In other words, Central Asians do not want to passively observe external powers and continue to fight against the superannuation theories of British geopolitical thinker Halford Mackinder.
A Trump pivot
If Trump is elected president in November, he should send a clear message that Washington’s policy on Central Asia will proceed in a more business-like manner, i .e., work to create political and economic synergies that lead to mutually beneficial outcomes.
If Trump’s policy vis-à-vis Central Asia were to be grounded in confident, smart diplomacy and no-nonsense realism, Central Asians would welcome the change in American leadership, just as they would applaud the cessation of US lectures on internal governance matters. Such moralizing has proven self-defeating for US strategic interests.
In order to reshape the” US Strategy for Central Asia 2019– 2025: Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity” and increase the momentum of US-Central Asian relations and strengthen its position against China, Russia, and other countries in the region, a Trump 2.0 administration should redraft the document.
Central Asian’s policymakers should keep in mind that the country is serious about upholding its sovereignty, spiritual and cultural heritage, civilized harmony, and traditional family values.
Should Trump win, he would be wise to send personalized notes to the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, saying to all:” I’ll see you in Central Asia in 2025″ . , The personal touch would go a long way toward deepening US-Central Asian relations and advancing US strategic and national interests in the region.
Javier M Piedra is former acting assistant administrator, Bureau for Asia, United States Agency for International Development ( USAID ).
Alexander B. Gray was the White House National Security Council’s chief of staff from 2019 to 2019 as a deputy assistant to the president.