This article originally appeared on Pacific Forum, and it has since been republished with authority. Read the original below.
In one of the most contentious White House elections in recent memory, the US is only a few days away from electing its 47th leader. Countries around the world closely monitor the results every four centuries as the American public casts their ballots to choose the people who best serve their interests.
The impact of this vote on foreign policy cannot be ignored, even though the primary focus of the American presidential election is on social and economic issues that immediately affect the lives of the Americans. Given America’s social, economic, and surveillance traces across the world, foreign policy matters significantly in the US vote.
An extraordinary time shattered the election campaign, opening the earth to a new electoral competition between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, even as the rest of the world considered the benefits and drawbacks of a Trump movie or a second word for President Joe Biden. A Trump 2.0 is the cause of a lot of stress and tension around the world, despite the uncertainty surrounding a Harris administration.
Regardless of who wins in November, there is a sense of comparative calm and trust in Delhi that the bilateral relationship between India and the US has bipartisan help.
The Delhi-Washington collaboration could be characterized as a political Goldilocks with an untapped proper alignment to counter China’s extensive and assertive rise, reshaping the Indo-Pacific’s security and economic landscape. From business to engineering, and Taiwan to Tibet, China is on incident style with India, the US, and their like-minded lovers.
The US and India have a favorable environment thanks to the corporate principles, which cover both military and non-military matters.
A quick glance at the joint statements from bilateral leadership meetings or the fact sheets from multilateral summits like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (” Quad” ) reveal engagements across the spectrum, from defense to infrastructure, from new technologies to public health, and from space to maritime security.
No day for proper fall
It is obvious that Washington and Delhi prioritized this marriage highly. The difficulty will be in navigating the tensions between delivering agreements and turning convergences into assistance.
Who will win the election in Washington will have the task of moving this marriage ahead while addressing sporadic annoyances and preventing operational risks.
Beyond its conventional group of allies, Washington maintains and envisions a relationship with Delhi. But, Delhi and Washington’s political imperatives will place them on proper axes that might challenge alignment and stifle traction.
The second-order result of individual foreign policy decisions needs to be handled keeping in mind the larger image of a “free, available, equitable and rules-based” get in the Indo-Pacific.
For example, the Delhi-Washington tango’s growing US-Russian animosity and the growing Sino-Russian ally create a more sophisticated complex powerful of commission and omission.
Besides, the US-China opposition is global in scope, while the India-China contest is a local one, more concentrated in western South Asia and the sea Indian Ocean area.
Both Washington and Delhi agree that collaborating and utilizing one another’s capabilities and intentions to address the China problem is beneficial. However, both also employ their own playbooks of “de-risking without decoupling” from China.
Therefore, whether India is a good bet for Washington vis-à-vis China and vice-versa will remain a pivot point in India-US engagement.
Delivering the deliverables
The most significant impact of cooperation in this area is probably the defense sector cooperation.
Both sides demonstrate a willingness to go above and beyond to improve ties between the two, which include co-development and co-production. Given the private sector’s growing involvement in India’s defense modernization, there are significant links between the two nations ‘ defense industrial conclaves.
Initiatives like the India-US Defense Industrial Roadmap and India-US Defense Acceleration Ecosystem ( INDUS-X ) are significant milestones in this effort because the budding synergy needs to lead to timely deliveries for induction into India’s armed forces.
Two new agreements have been signed, one relating to ensuring resilience of supply chains to meeting national security demands, namely , Security of Supply Arrangement , ( SOSA ) and a memorandum of agreement regarding , Assignment of Liaison Officers , to increase interoperability between the two militaries.
Moreover, overarching agreements like the , Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology , (iCET ) show a multi-sectoral and multi-agency partnership cutting across commercial and military technologies that are going to shape the security and economics of the 21st century.
Trade and technology will be increasingly intertwined in times to come and a new , memorandum of understanding , aims to strengthen supply chains for lithium, cobalt, and other critical minerals to be used in green energy transition efforts such as electric vehicles. A Harris and Trump presidency may have a more significant impact on the trade front.
Delhi would have to prepare for trade agreements with strong climate and environment components if Harris wins. On the other hand, a Trump 2.0 will most likely be more hostile toward multilateralism and focused on reciprocity of trade and tariffs, regardless of allies and adversaries. Trump, during his presidency, and more recently, as well, has often called out India as a “very big abuser” of tariffs.
Global aspirations and regional challenges
Regional challenges closer to home in its neighborhood throw up more looming challenges as India attempts to take over the global south and finds itself at the center of many pressing global issues.
The volatile political climate in Myanmar, the chaotic regime change in Bangladesh, the foreign policy choices of neighboring Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives, as well as the uncertain transition in Afghanistan, will necessitate sober discussions between Washington and Delhi.
Although the geopolitics and geoeconomics of South Asia are generally understood as being related to the India-China conflict, the US’s role is significant because it is a distant power in terms of geography but not in terms of strategy.
How the region fits into the India-US partnership will be a crucial issue for the next American presidency as Washington navigates South Asia following 20 years of shaping its regional policy through the Afghanistan lens.
More specifically, it will be important to discuss how Washington and Delhi collaborate on financing and building infrastructure in the region, and how both sides would coordinate efforts to improve maritime security in the Indian Ocean region.
The India-US relationship, currently called a defining partnership of the 21st , century, has seen all kinds of highs and lows in its journey. It would have been difficult to imagine the level of cooperation the two countries had had in all sectors and domains two decades ago.
However, the relationship between these two complex democracies, each with its own unique worldviews and priorities, will also experience a number of ups and downs in the years to come.
Moreover, the world is going through seismic geopolitical, geo-economic, and technological transitions. The key to putting together a partnership that is aspirational yet grounded in realpolitik will be to use the political support on both sides and the institutional links built over the years.
Monish Tourangbam , ( [email protected] )  , is director at the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS), India.