Iran appears to be getting backed into a spot as Israel fights against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel’s work to diminish Iran’s substitute community have focused on a number of targets: eliminating important Hezbollah officials, destroying their arms and other military sites, and targeting large numbers of fighters and sympathizers.
Iran has undoubtedly faced a problem because Hezbollah has weakened in recent months. Could Iran’s major militant proxy group’s continued pressure lead to the eventual acquisition of a nuclear weapon?
Iran’s punishment approach
Countries around the world have a well-known deterrence strategy utilizing armed substitute systems.
Iran has effectively used this tactic for generations, starting with Hezbollah in Lebanon and then spreading to Palestinian militant groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, several Kurdish militant groups, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Iran has been able to use this technique to deter any direct military hostilities from its adversaries while imposing a stronghold on the region and fend off pressure from Israel, the United States, and their allies.
Both Iran and Israel have, until late, appeared reluctant to engage in a full-scale battle. Rather, they have adhered to a certain code of conduct, which requires that they put pressure on one another without causing a full-french issue. This is something neither area you purchase.
Iran has much avoided direct conflict with Israel, yet when Israel has targeted its organizations in Syria and murdered a number of Iranian nuclear professionals over the past few years.
Lately, however, this approach has shifted. Iran has responded by launching two strong missile attacks against Israel in the last six months, acknowledging the influence of Israel’s continued attack on its substitute system.
This suggests that Tehran may significantly resort to other tactics to reestablish successful deterrence against Israel and its Western allies as the pressure on Iran’s proxies grows.
Some experts think that Israel may remain gaining what is referred to as “escalation supremacy” over Iran. As one group of experts has explained, this happens when one warrior escalates a fight
either because it has no options for escalation or because the options may not enhance the adversary’s situation, which would be detrimental or expensive for the adversary while the adversary would not be able to do so in return.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged a “harsh answer” to Israel’s most recent weapon strike in early October. This may force Iran further towards changing its punishment strategy, especially if Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear services.
Calling for a new nuclear plan
The Iranian government is presently openly discussing whether to declare a martial nuclear programme as a result of growing pressure on Iran’s officials.
This may change Egyptian policy significantly. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear arsenal is exclusively for human purposes and that it has no intention of developing a defense part. This claim has been disputed by the US and its supporters.
The Egyptian parliament announced on October 8 that it had received draft regulations for the “expansion of Iran’s nuclear business,” and that it would be discussed in parliament. It’s not known what this development may be; it’s not clear whether it will have a military component. However, recent remarks by Iranian leaders suggest like an agenda.
Kamal Kharrazi, a top legislator and part of the Expediency Discernment Council, a high-ranking operational council appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, forewarned of a revision of Iran’s nuclear program. In an interview in May, he said:
If Iran’s life is threatened, Iran’s degree of deterrence may be altered. We have no authority to make a nuclear weapon, but if such a threat does occur, we will have to alter our nuclear policy.
Iran is becoming more and more vocal about a revision of its security theory. This year, nearly 40 politicians wrote a notice to the Supreme National Security Council, which decides on Iran’s public safety plan.
They urged the government to reconsider the existing nuclear policy, noting that Khamenei’s fatwa, which forbids the production of nuclear weapons, may change as a result of recent developments.
In the same spirit, Ayatollah Hassan Khomeini, the granddaughter of the leader of the Islamic revolution and previous Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini, called last week for “enhancing the level of deterrent” against Israel. The Persian internet interpreted this as referring to nuclear arms.
Additionally, there have been rumors that the earthquake that occurred in Iran last year may have been the result of a nuclear bomb check. The US has stated that there is still no proof that Iran is working toward developing nuclear weapons.
Revived radioactive offer exceedingly improbable
Iran, Germany, and the European Union were the signatories of Iran’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA ) in 2015. With some limits on its crucial nuclear services, this agreement made it possible to pursue a civilian nuclear programme. In exchange, the US and its allies agreed to raise sanctions on Iran.
Yet, the US withdrew from the deal under then-president Donald Trump in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran. Iran has since banned a number of international inspectors from inspecting some of its nuclear websites.
It is now thought to be only months away from developing enough weapons-grade material to build a weapon.
Although Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s new leader, suggested his state would be willing to reengage with the West and continue the discussions, attempts to revive the nuclear discussions have not been successful in recent years.
However, as has been speculated, Iran may decide to go ahead with a nuclear weapons program if Israel launches an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in retaliation for the missile attack last week.
Iran would launch a military nuclear program with the intention of restoring a deterrence balance with Israel that could stop a full-fledged conflict. Israel’s claim to have nuclear weapons has never been confirmed, though it is still ongoing.
However, such a choice is likely to have a significant impact on Iran and the region as a whole.
It undoubtedly would increase the pressure from other countries and US sanctions on Iran, which would make it even more isolated. Additionally, it could cause the region to become more hostile to nuclear weapons, as Saudi Arabia has already agreed to develop one if Iran develops one.
Ali Mamouri is research fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University and Shahram Akbarzadeh is convenor of the Middle East Studies Forum ( MESF ) and deputy director ( International ) of the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University
This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.