Some people have been worried for the past year that the conflict between Israel and Hamas will spread to neighboring nations and cause a damaging conflict in the Middle East. There is no denying that the conflict has now spread to Lebanon, despite the fact that there is still hope that the most bleak regional rumors wo n’t materialize.
The main characters are Israel and Hezbollah, the self-styled weight group-political group that is significantly rooted in Lebanon’s social structure, business, and much of its world. The main players are Israel and Hezbollah, the country’s northern and southern Lebanon.
In mid-September, Israel announced it was shifting its defence policy towards its northern borders, where 70, 000 persons had been displaced over the past month by missiles fired by Hezbollah. Yoav Gallant, the minister of defense, stated that its battle goals had changed to ensure that these citizens may return to their homes in health.
Israel claims that a large portion of the Hezbollah management has been eliminated as well as a significant portion of its military infrastructure following a weekend of missile attacks into Lebanon. All parties involved may face more difficult issues during this conflict’s next stage, which also poses a significant threat to the region and beyond.
The possibility that Lebanon could fail as a state if this war escalates is perhaps lost in the debates about whether Israel can defeat Hamas ( and Hamas in Gaza ), how Iran ( Hezbollah’s main supporter ) will respond, and who will ultimately prevail. And that serves no person’s objectives.
Lebanon is a fragile nation that has experienced devastating economic and political problems, fraud, human rights violations, and a collapse in trust between the government and society over the past ten years.
Its market is unstable, having not recovered from the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The Palestinian economy was still reeling from the collapse of its economic structure in 2019 and the default on its intolerably high debt levels in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 crisis.
The skill of regular Palestinian citizens to provide for themselves and their families has been further hampered by world inflationary pressures and cost of living pressure.
In recent years, the nation has hemorrhaged its capital, and very few overseas buyers have the guts to take their money there. Per person incomes have decreased significantly, and they still stand at around US$ 3,300, along from around US$ 9 000 in 2018.
Lebanon’s economy has gone into reverse since the crisis in 2019, with gross domestic product ( GDP ) declining from$ 59 billion in 2018 to just$ 22 billion today. Nearly half of the population is now living below the poverty line, which is combined with inflation at a rate of 200 % and a 95 % loss of the Lebanese pound.
There has been a breakdown in waste disposal and electricity supplies ( Lebanon’s state power company struggles to provide even two hours of electricity per day ). Lebanon has a trade deficit of around$ 9 billion annually, and its reserves of foreign currencies are extraordinarily low. This has made it even more difficult for regular Lebanese to obtain the necessities to survive ( let alone prosper ).
Even a small war can have devastating economic outcomes that endure well after the conflict has ended. If history can provide any insight into the present conflict, we can anticipate a protracted and extreme conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, one in which Israeli troops will be stationed in Lebanon. This war is likely to completely destabilize the Syrian market, bringing the entire nation to the brink of collapse.
This has not been the case previously. Similar events occurred in the stormy early 1970s and the Syrian civil war that erupted between 1975 and 1990. Since the start of the civil war in Lebanon in 2011, there have been intolerable pressure being put on the delivery of goods and services there. The need for healthcare, education, resources and accommodation has far exceeded offer.
With a number of activities, including the 2016 EU-Lebanon Compact, financial assistance in the region of several billion dollars, the global community has assisted Lebanon in welcoming Syrian refugees.
However, the financial and material assistance provided was inappropriate. Lebanon has grown disturbed and strained as a result of having the highest refugee-to-citizen amount in the world.
A failed position?
As if the region’s political landscape of conflict and suffering were n’t bad enough, the country’s political landscape still ranks among the most fractious and contentious in the area.
In many ways, Lebanon has not for the past five years had a fully functioning collection of state organizations. The government may function completely due to intense social conflict and divisions between the political parties.
And with little assistance from the government, thousands of ordinary citizens are now facing serious threats to their lives and livelihoods as a result of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
In Lebanon, there have been displaced for up to a million civilians, and a lot of the country’s equipment and real estate have been destroyed. And yet to be completely successful is an Israeli floor invasion.
But there’s little doubt that one is on the method. By ensuring Hezbollah is no longer a feasible military threat, Israel intends to forever change the balance of power.
There are  , clear parallels , between Israel’s 2006 invasion of Lebanon ( the 34-day war ) and the much broader 1982 war. The 2006 fight devastated Lebanon’s system, while the 1982 war lasted until 2000, leading to huge damage, hardship, insecurity and instability.
Lebanon’s recent conflict has the potential for a second civil war, to the extent that it could destroy it. This would provide no one’s attention. A volatile, devasted, and failing Lebanon will only have adverse effects on Israel and allies in the Middle East.
Just decline and damage may occur in Lebanon, the Middle East, and elsewhere if the Hobbesian logic of the powerful doing what they will and the poor suffering what they must is allowed to continue. It is crucial that purpose and purpose prevail, and that Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah’s conflict de-escalate.
Imad El-Anis is associate professor in foreign relationships, Nottingham Trent University
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