There is a voting that will not be counted but is important: who does Washington want to be Japan’s future leader, as Liberal Democratic Party people battle to choose the next prime minister?
Washington does n’t care, in my opinion, which is the most obvious response. They” had care less” said a former senior government official who is still deeply engaged with Japan at the highest levels of government and politicians. ” At the professional level, there are choices. However, no one in Washington is discussing it in detail.
Americans are seriously invested in their own, highly contested election, which is one reason for this lack of interest. However, the Chinese party election’s unique nature makes it perplexing, not least of which because there are so many individuals in the field.
And finally, Americans assume, probably wrongly, that the result of the election is not going to transform Japan’s foreign and domestic legislation.
However, for American politicians and authorities, it matters who emerges as Japan’s next president. One of the most critical questions facing the US is” who can be an effective leader that re-energizes the Chinese government, delivers an economic plan that is responsible, keeps Japan’s security expenditures in check, and encourages the Chinese economy to be a crucial hub in global supply chains,” according to Mireya Solis of the Brookings Institution, one of the top Japan experts in Washington.
” Folks in Washington are looking for somebody who will continue the Abe] Shinzo ] alliance policies, expanding the alliance, and expanding what Japan can do within the alliance”, says Ambassador Joseph Donovan, Jr, a former senior State Department official with extensive experience in Japan.
Along with that, Americans are looking for” somebody who can function with the ROK ( South Korea ), and somebody who has strong local support, who can provide the LDP again up”. Having said that, Donovan and people I spoke to offer a “huge proviso” regarding what might occur if US leadership changes.
If Democrat Kamala Harris prevails, she” may be looking for the strongest possible Japanese prime minister”, says the former top standard, who wished to remain anonymous. Trump may be looking for which excellent minister to influence, according to the statement.
Abe was able to “both please the US senator and stand up for Japan.” Whoever meets with Trump needs to be able to convey self-assurance as a world head, which is really important. Within that large platform, Japan offers its own opinions on who might best fit those needs.
How Washington sees the prospects
American policymakers tend to favor the most expert members of the LDP, especially those who have long worked in Washington, putting off the possibility of creating a liberal image that you acquaint voters with the scandal-troubling conventional ruling party.
” Everyone in Washington DC would be thrilled if it were Hayashi]Yoshimasa]”, said Tobias Harris, the biographer of Abe and author of the widely read” Observing Japan” newsletter.
” Clearly, he has lots of friends around. He worked on the Hill ( Congress ). He is the consistency prospect. Hayashi is your guy if you like what the Kishida state has been up to.
Washington is well-versed in the prospects ‘ backgrounds: former foreign minister Motegi Toshimitsu, present LDP Secretary General Kamikawa Yoko, and former foreign and defence secretary Kono Taro. The original senior government official offered this frank, off-the-record analysis of the three, based in part on personal touch.
Motegi’s encounter with Washington comes primarily in the business location, as the mediator of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and dealing with the Trump presidency.
” He is clever, productive, a little bit hostile – not a common Chinese, but Americans you deal with that”, says the former established. ” He is abrasive, but that does n’t matter in international affairs”.
As for Kamikawa,” she is the same. It’s so great, vanilla-flavored. Washington would assume that she was chosen because of her sex and fluency in English.
Kono is also a possible Prime Minister with lengthy experience in Washington, people fluent in English,” spends a lot of time with Americans and knows the U. S. fairly well”, the original official says.
However, Kono has some issues, especially those that exist in the Pentagon and the State Department, primarily as a result of his administration’s handling of the Aegis Onshore missile defence system, which shocked Washington. ” Kono thinks Americans like him, but that is not real”.
As things stand then, however, none of the “experienced” individuals seem likely to make the last two. So there are a number of individuals who are n’t at the top of British lists, including former defence minister Ishiba Shigeru, past financial security minister Kobayashi Takayuki, past economic security minister Koizumi Shinjiro, and current economic security minister Takaichi Sanae.
None of these potential leaders are regarded as having a significant impact on alliance relations, aside from Takaichi, a right-wing brave who has established herself as the intellectual heir to Abe’s more nationalist agenda.
” Takaichi would make anyone anxious”, says Harris. Her controversial stance on military history, including plans to visit the Yasukuni temple to Japan’s battle dead, “would disturbed the multilateral ties with the Koreans.” Koizumi and Kobayashi, who may even travel to Yasukuni and nasty relations with Korea, are also concerned.
Takaichi appeals to more hawkish people in Washington, especially those who support Trump, because they believe she is more ready to physically challenge China. She will want the same items that some individuals in Washington want, and they will find a way to collaborate with her, according to Harris.
That opinion does not apply to different well-versed Japanese arms in Washington. She might be too aggressive for the Washington masses, at least among those in Japan, according to the original senior official, though it is difficult to be that way in Washington these times.
Ishiba is undoubtedly the most amazing and potentially challenging head for Americans. He is well-known in the US, but he is not that well-known there.
His involvement in the Pentagon and his interest in developing arms have some backing. He is known to be a Chinese ally who wants to build a more independent future for Japan.
” Ishiba is sincere”, comments Harris. He” says what he thinks,” and he is a member of a custom that opposes doing what the US wants if it conflicts with Japan’s objectives.
Harris contrasts him with Kono, noting that both people have voiced opposition to Nippon Steel’s determination to halt its purchase of US Steel. Both males represent” a Japan that does say no, even politely, but nonetheless say no”.
Ishiba reflects more boldly a commonly held fear in Japan about U. S. reliability, especially under a minute Trump presidency. ” He and Trump together talking about burden sharing would be an interesting conversation”, says the former senior official. ” He will give as good as he gets”.
The other candidate coming out of the former Abe faction, Kobayashi, is garnering more interest in Washington where some think he could emerge as the second-place candidate. Compared to Takaichi, he is viewed more favorably. Kobayashi is “very bright, a good communicator, with US experience”, says the former official.
” He is young, interesting, probably someone the US could work with, but who is really going to make decisions if he is prime minister”. Washington’s policymakers are very impressed by his commitment to economic security.
The Koizumi question
That brings us to Koizumi Shinjiro, the son of the former prime minister, as the last viable option and the current front-runner in polls. He is undoubtedly well-known and offers the best chance to repair the LDP’s damaged image.
He has had little to say on foreign policy, focusing almost entirely on internal issues of political reform and encouraging entrepreneurial-led growth.
Koizumi is well-known in American policy circles. His graduate studies at Columbia University were followed by a valuable internship at the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he worked closely with Michael Green, a veteran Japan alliance manager, were they? However, questions remain as to whether or not he has any prior experience or adopts a certain policy.
” He does n’t get deep on policy very often”, the former official told Toyo Keizai. Let’s see if someone can handle the job because “people here would believe they have chosen someone who is appealing to voters.”
Nonetheless, in a second-round contest between Koizumi and either Ishiba or Takaichi, the Washington experts would tend to favor the young politician.
They assume he would represent a united party and have support from the LDP’s powerful figures, such as Aso Taro and Suga Yoshihide. Bottom line: For American Japan hands, having a leader who can continue to play a more assertive role in international affairs is important.
According to Brookings ‘ Solis, the author of an important new book on Japan’s leadership role,” If you have a leader that is not strong, that could mean that it is not going to be as proactive as it has been in the past.”
Japan has emerged as a key force in the fight against the “flourishing in the US” and the rise of xenophobic populism. She says the importance of Japanese leadership is highlighted by the possibility of a return to isolationism under Trump.
None of the potential LDP candidates would be as disruptive as the results of the Democratic Party of Japan’s brief presidency.
” It’s more important to determine which type of prime minister is more adept at appointing a strong economic management system to ensure that the LDP can carry out its goals.”
It would be difficult to say,” If you see a weakening of that control power that we got used to, that brought a more decisive Japan.”
Daniel Sneider is a non-resident distinguished fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America and a lecturer on international policy and East Asian studies at Stanford University.
This article was originally published , by Toyo Keizai and is republished with permission. Read the original here.