United Nations ‘ practitioners job that, by the end of this decade, Turkey’s work force may drop by half and Iran’s may fall by two-fifths while Israel’s will increase.
Greek women in 2023 were estimated to have an average of only 1.5 children over their lives, quarter of Israel’s total fertility rate of 3 children per woman. The World Bank puts Iran’s  , 2022 reproduction level at 1.7.
The fundamental scenario, as it may appear, will make Israel the Middle East’s financial hub somewhere toward the end of the century, according to current trends.
The competition is not to the sharp nor the fight to the powerful, Damon Runyon offered, but that’s how the smart money bet. A straight prediction of current trends may be altered by any number of things. The exercise yet leads to impressive conclusions.
Israel’s per head GDP is now about US$ 55, 000, or five days Turkey’s$ 11, 000. There may be some skepticism about the scale, but it is without a doubt that Israelis produce more food than Turks do. If these changes continue, Israel’s GDP will reach Turkey’s by somewhere in the middle of the present era.
The largest Middle Eastern country by people, Egypt, has a GDP per capita of simply$ 3, 500. Its issues are of a different order than those of Turkey or Iran, and its chances of achieving financial dominance are slim.
There is no denying that the fertility rate in Muslim nations is declining. The standards of standard society are stifled by adult literacy. Muslim women reject cultural society’s restrictions along with marriage and motherhood once they have a specific level of education.
As I mentioned in my 2011 text” How Civilizations Die, and Why Islam is Dying, Too,” I found that the correlation between female education and reproduction is well established in scientific studies in the case of Iran.
In the case of Turkey, the evidence is overwhelming. The world bank’s reported female literacy rate ( left-hand axis, inverse scale ) and the total fertility rate are compared in the chart below.
When female literacy rates and total fertility prices are compared in nations with female literacy rates under 60 %, the identical pattern emerges:
The developing South’s poor countries are replicating the West’s alleged statistical shift, but this time with fewer resources.
That leaves Iran and Turkey in a quandary. Turkey has built its own cutting-edge fighter planes and now produces more trucks than France. Iran has demonstrated its military might with drones and weapons, and it is about to reach, if not beyond, the threshold of a radioactive strike.
Both organizations can provide their citizens with an outlet from conventional society in order to educate scientists and engineers at world standards in sizable numbers.
The governments of Iran and Turkey both aim to preserve classic Muslim mores in a far more oppressive and pervasive way, to be sure. However, some of their most gifted individuals emigrated as a result of their efforts to establish Islam from the top.
In a study of Turkey’s head deplete, the Associated Press reported last year that” for some, the way out is through training permits to study abroad or job enables.” ” TurkStat, the president’s records ministry, said 139, 531 Turkish residents left the country in 2022, compared with 103, 613 in 2021. Those aged 25 to 29 formed the biggest class”, the AP statement said.
Studies of Iran’s brain drain estimate the annual loss to the country’s economy at between$ 50 billion and$ 150 billion a year. More than one-quarter of remarkably educated Egyptian residents would leave the country if they could, according to Gallup’s Potential Online Migration Index, which was collected between 2015 and 2017. By some estimates, 80 % of graduates of Sharif University, the country’s best architecture school, have emigrated.
Where ovulation was at its lowest point, reproduction decreased the quickest. In Turkey, the regions with the highest fertility prices in 2010 and 2022 were the ones that saw the biggest fertility declines between 2010 and 2022.
Nine Turkish provinces had total fertility rates ( TFRs ) higher than 3.0 in 2010. In 2022, there was only one. No Greek territory reported a Birthrate of less than 1.5 in 2010.
By 2022, 43 counties showed a Multirole below 1.5. These regions of Turkey have the highest economic growth rates and are the most populated. All regions with TFRs greater than 2.0 are included in the south of the nation, which has a major Kurdish population.
The regions of Turkey that are the most current and economically strong, have very low fertility rates.
Without a major increase in efficiency, Turkey, Iran and other countries may experience severe retirement catastrophes. Assuming regular fertility, Turkey and Iran may include 70 taxpayers for every 100 employees in 2100, compared with only 14 today.
Both countries have the potential to raise productivity, at least in principle: Iran’s labor force participation rate is estimated at just 46 % by the World Bank, and Turkey’s at 56 %. In Turkey, there are only 36 % of women in the workforce, compared to just 14 % in Iran. The United States has a 58 % related information level.
In Israel, 60 % of women are in the labor force, including 80 % of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox ) women. The labor force participation rate for Haredi men is 55 % because a large number of ultra-Orthodox people devote themselves to religious studies. However, the majority of Haredi women have six children and still manage to find work.
A beloved profession for computer programmers is the practice of acquiring language and reasoning skills acquired through religious education.
In terms of adjusting to the current economy, Israel excels. It is the only industrial nation with a fertility rate above alternative, and it has been successful, albeit with some friction, in integrating the majority of its expanding ultra-Orthodox populace into experienced occupations. The trade-off between female education and fertility does n’t exist.
Among the nation’s major sects, Judaism has a special affinity for research. Not by injury, Jews have won a fifth of all mechanics Nobel Prizes and a fifth of all Fields Medals. I outlined the religious issue in detail below.
We can just say that the two Middle Eastern countries, the two most powerful Muslim nations, are far from resolving a strong social dichotomy between pre-modern and post-modern career. Turkey and Iran may thrive, but provide styles point rather toward stagnation.
It is entirely possible that Israel may become the region’s largest market, which would have been seen as an unusual development for a tiny nation that had a Jewish people of just 600,000 in 1947.
Spengler is channeled by David P Goldman. Following him on X at @davidpgoldman