For the Kremlin, its “partner of no parameters”, China, is n’t doing enough to support Russia’s war against Ukraine. But, Russia has signed a peace agreement with North Korea, hoping to force China into backing Moscow’s battle work more.
However, the West sees China as far to good to Russia. The West’s best observation of the mood came on a conference in Washington, DC on July 10, 2024.
China is a “decisive innovator” of Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to NATO leaders who even called on China to” stop all materials and social support of Russia’s war work.”
To the West, China’s help, though short of real weapons source, is more than enough to power Russia’s war device. This in turn threatens Europe’s stability.
But NATO’s communication and Russia’s inherent script to China seemed to indicate one thing: Beijing’s fence-sitting days are numbered, and it needs to choose a part. However for Russia, China may be forced to find the West.
China has begun to show evidence of its pivot toward the West. In late 2023, there was riddled rumors that China’s tiger diplomacy was about to break up due to the West’s deteriorating relationships.
But in mid-2024, Beijing sent more panda to Spain and Vienna, as well as the US software centre of California. In an effort to strengthen relationships with the West, President Xi Jinping even made position visits to the US, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand.
Beijing’s Russian headaches
Russia and Ukraine are aware of the disastrous effects the conflict has had. Estimates indicate that Putin’s fight in Ukraine may cost Russia US$ 1.3 trillion and at least 315, 000 in troop deaths. But, win or lose, the post-war harm to Russia may be tremendous.
This is terrible news for China. The West will have the freedom to use its tools to deal with the” Chinese risk” because it will have a diminished ally as well.
This issue is n’t false. After all, most Americans regard China as their greatest foe, and they occasionally refer to it as a part of an” axis of evil” along with Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
The Chinese government must therefore prevent Russia losing the conflict in Ukraine from becoming the “target of all arrows” ( ), as the famous Chinese saying goes. The revitalization of tiger politics and the organization’s state visits serve as tools for stabilizing relations with the west and as insurance.
However, NATO’s condemnation of China in July 2024, which echoes a statement made by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in late April 2024, suggests that these delicate power efforts are inadequate to satisfy the West.
China needs to hit Ukraine’s government to negotiate peace with Russia. With this, China can focused its efforts on becoming the world’s leader in AI and recovering its ailing economy, while Russia retains its regional strength.
Financial efficiency
For decades, China has been reeling from a real estate issue, a volatile stock market, a large 288 % debt-to-GDP percentage, as well as great youth unemployment.
And lately, as a result of rising demand, Chinese government bond prices recently soared, suggesting that investors are looking for safer investment options.
The Taiwanese government is also dealing with other issues, but they also have one. It has historically used financial performance to validate its rule. Beijing needs to revive its struggling business to keep its hold on power, given the current economic climate.
But, there is one major flaw with Beijing’s economic growth approach: it centers around exports, which rely heavily on American need. China exported more goods to various regions of the world, but nearly 30 % of those exported to the US and the EU in 2023.
As it stands, holes are surfacing in Beijing’s trade programs. In May 2024, the US raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles ( EV ) to 100 %. The European Union increased the tariff on all Chinese electric vehicles imported into Europe from 17.4 % to 37.6 %, topping the already 10 % duty.
However, depending on how it deals with Russia, stuff may get worse for the Chinese market. A moment after NATO’s statement, US President Joe Biden announced that China’s ongoing support of Russia will endure severe economic consequences for the Eastern power.
He made a reference to what China may face if its aid for Russia is continued, saying that” some of our German friends are going to be curtailing their investment in China.”
China hopes that a Russia-friendly peace arrangement will come after the war’s conclusion, for its own sake. Without this, China’s commitment to self-reliance will place its unmatched relationship with the Kremlin to the test.
After all, as the phrase commonly attributed to the 19th-century British prime minister Lord Palmerston goes,” There are no permanent foes, and no permanent companions, merely permanent interests”.
Chee Meng Tan is Assistant Professor of Business Economics, University of Nottingham
The Conversation has republished this post under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.