SINGAPORE: The rise for Singapore’s major exports in 2024 may come in at the “lower selection” of the 4 to 6 per cent forecast given the worse- than- expected performance in the first quarter.
Singapore’s non- oil domestic exports ( NODX ) declined by 3.4 per cent in the first quarter from a high base a year ago, largely driven by a decline in non- electronics, Enterprise Singapore ( EnterpriseSG)  , said on Thursday ( May 23 ).
Domestic non-electronic product exports saw a 3.8 % year-on-year decline in the first quarter of 2024, after a 1.1 % increase in the previous quarter.
The largest contributors to the decrease in quasi- digital products were pharmaceuticals, structures of ships and boats, and electric circuits equipment,  , EnterpriseSG in a media release on Thursday.
Domestic exports for electronic goods decreased by 1.6 % on a year-on-year basis in the first quarter of the year, easing from the 9.9 % decline in the previous quarter.
Electronic NODX was most affected by the decrease in communication technology, diodes and transistors, and PC-related components.
NODX to the major markets as a whole declined in the first fourth, although NODX to China and Hong Kong rose, said EnterpriseSG.
The biggest contributors to the decrease in NODX were the European Union with a 35.9 per share recession, the United States with a 13.2 per cent recession and Japan with a 33.6 per share recession.
However, total goods industry in the first quarter of 2024 grew by 4.8 per share on a year- on- year basis, a turnaround from the preceding five quarters of decline. The total goods trade for the past quarter decreased by 2.1 %.
Oil trade increased by 3.4 % in the first quarter after the 3.3 % decline in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Non- fuel trade grew by 5.2 per share in Q1 2024, after the preceding quarter’s 1.8 per share reduce.
Higher anticipated petrol prices year over year are expected to support minimum and overall trade, according to EnterpriseSG.
According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry ( MTI), Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for the year is projected to be between 1 and 3 percent as its economy increased by 2.7 % year over year in the first quarter of 2024.
OUTLOOK
While the rise estimates for Singapore’s major exports in 2024 could be in the lower 4 to 6 percent range,” support is also anticipated from the recovery in electronics demand in 2H 2024, driven by consumer devices and AI servers, along with the normalization of inventory levels,” according to EnterpriseSG.
40 % of the electronics cluster’s net weighted balance forecast positive business results for the April-Sept period compared to the first quarter of 2024.
In contrast to the 11.7 percent decline of the previous year, semiconductor revenue is projected to be 17 % higher year over year in 2024.
According to the International Monetary Fund ( IMF), global economic activity will increase by 3.2 % in 2024.
Most of Singapore’s key trade partners, including China, the US, the EU, and ASEAN are projected to grow in 2024.
Additionally, the IMF predicted a 2024 increase in global trade volume as opposed to a 2023 increase.
Meanwhile, the World Trade Organisation ( WTO ) expected global merchandise trade to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2024, reversing the 1.2 per cent decline in 2023.