The war’s trajectory along Myanmar’s and Thailand’s borders has been erupting at an odd pace.
Men devoted to the military junta that seized control of their foundation in Myawaddy, a crucial border crossing, have retaken it two days after losing control of the crucial border crossing.
The troubled coup appears to have held the line in Myawaddy, having endured a string of humiliating defeats elsewhere in the nation. However, the image is much more complex than this straightforward tale suggests.
The Karen National Union (KNU)’s (KNU)’s ) immediate record of all the military installations close to Myawaddy earlier this month sounded like a significant turning point in the civil war that erupted after the junta seized power in a revolution three years ago.
The city was the site of some large and very profitable casino complexes, which is a real bonus because most of the country’s industry with Thailand passes through it. This is the first time in decades that the KNU, Myanmar’s longest-running rebel group, had taken control of it.
However, the KNU never actually occupied Myawaddy, allowing only a small group of fighters from the allied People’s Defence Forces ( PDF) to rule the Battalion 275 army base just outside the town. In order to move the area and keep the border business going, it kept the same authorities, emigration, and local government officials in place.
The presence of different, strong Karen military armies, which had until recently been allied to the military dictatorship, and whose reaction to the KNU’s advance was uncertain, was one reason for the winning rebels ‘ reticence. Avoiding conflicts between various Karen parties was a concern, says the KNU management.
Estimates and concerns
The Karen National Army (KNA ), led by Saw Chit Thu, a warlord who abandoned the KNU in the 1990s, is the largest of these militias.
He is in charge of the infamous Shwe Kokko game intricate, which has been accused of housering shady locations. The money it makes allows a well-paid and well-equipped personal army of several thousand soldiers, which have been working as a border guard power in support of the military since 2010.
Chit Thu, who was allegedly helping the men who had been driven out of the Battalion 275 foundation but who had refused to give up, was informed in January that he was breaking ties with the coup.
The government’s heat energy, which has had disastrous effects in different areas where its floor troops have been defeated, was another factor in the KNU’s prudence. Mi35 aircraft gunships and Y12 plane bombed KNU roles in Myawaddy over the weekend, causing a number of injuries and causing thousands of people to flee to the Thai side of the border to find safety.
KNU sources claim that the Thai army has instructed them not to start a fight for control of Myawaddy, which would stifle trade and enlist a much larger wave of refugees there.
The KNU leadership ordered its forces to abandon the Battalion 275 base, partly it said, to avoid more destruction in Myawaddy, but also to focus on a much bigger battle 30km ( 18 miles ) to the west of the town.
Stung by the loss of Myawaddy the coup ordered a big row of reinforcements, backed by armored vehicles and ordnance, to re- demonstrate its power over the street to the border. This is the military’s biggest counter-attack effort since the series of tribal insurgents’ defeats that started in Shan State in October of last year.
KNU combatants have been dispatched to raid the row along the street as it winds through woodland hills outside the city of Kawkareik, stifling its progress and destroying a number of vehicles.
The row is, or was, being commanded by General Soe Win, number two in the military order, a signal of how crucial its achievement is to the junta. He has since vanished from the public eye, giving rise to rumors that his employer, junta head Min Aung Hlaing, may have injured him or perhaps had him removed.
Stopping or reversing this column would be a much greater success than occupying Myawaddy, making sure that KNU controls all entry to the border in this region.
But the KNU faces a number of difficulties.
More than 700, 000 people have been displaced by fighting in Karen State since the coup, which is a remarkable half of the state’s population. The coup combat will get that much worse if the escalation continues.
It must also ensure that its seven military regiments, which have usually had a high degree of autonomy in their respective regions, are one. Prior to the revolt, the KNU’s internal battles erupted over how to deal with the central government while supporting company in one of Asia’s most underdeveloped regions.
The KNU has even now decide what kind of policy it will have for Myawaddy, the mainstay of Karen State’s economy. The separatist KNA owned by Saw Chit Thu’s has a history of high distrust and hatred, and the standard KNU position on the casino complexes is that they should be shut down because they contribute to international crime like human trafficking.
But Saw Chit Thu has ambitious plans to expand Shwe Kokko, in partnership with a Taiwanese business, Yatai, into a big, cross- boundary entertainment zone. He has the strength to prevent any attempt to stop him, unless it is supported by Thailand, which supplies Shwe Kokko with light and communications. Although there are important Thai figures with financial ties to the Shwe Kokko project, that is doubtful. Perhaps some older KNU figures are connected to the casino industry.
According to discussions with KNU resources, it appears that the party was unsure of the complexity of occupying Myawaddy when it assumed control of the military base it on April 11th.
The KNU has fought for a self-governing Karen position for more than 75 times, and its administration has a pro-active perspective of the conflict.
It has already firmly rooted its fortunes in the anti-coup resistance movement, supporting and training the rebels who are fleeing from the towns ‘ Files, and providing a haven for the National Unity Government, which represents the coup-ruled administration.
However, it is monumental to combine the diverse coalition of cultural armies, warlords, and PDF militias into an all-out abuse that can defeat the military junta, whose outcome is still uncertain.
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