MANILA – This week, the Philippines and United States kicked off their largest-ever and most consequential joint Balikatan ( shoulder-to-shoulder ) war games featuring as many as 16,000 troops including 11,000 American servicemen.
Crucially, the two allies will conduct some of their drills outside the Philippines ’ 12 nautical miles “territorial sea” in the South China Sea, a direct challenge to China ’s expansive “nine-dash line ’ claim encompassing most of the international waterway.
In a move that will likely further infuriate China, the weekslong Balikatan activities will also expand to the Philippines ’ northern county of Cagayan, which abuts Taiwan’s southwestern shores.
Following the landmark Japan-Philippine-US ( JAPHUS) trilateral summit in Washington, where US President Joe Biden publicly warned China of its mutual defense obligations to the Philippines in the event of a conflict in the South China Sea, the massive drills follow.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr., president of the Philippines, is still a mystery whether he will participate in the training this year. The leader has established strategic ties with the US, including by allowing US forces to use the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement ( EDCA ) to rotate between northern Philippine bases close to Taiwan.
Prior to his time in office, Marcos Jr. had signaled his determination to diplomatic relations with China by preventing further US annexation of Spanish bases. Since then, Marcos Jr. has since changed his mind as tensions have soared due to disputed South China Sea features.
At home, the Filipino leader is facing staunch opposition from his pro-Beijing president, Rodrigo Duterte, who has publicly criticized him for presumably antagonizing China and also visited Beijing in his power as ex-president, in what some saw as a problem to Marco Jr’s power.
The Spanish government is now retaliating and is set to look into an alleged “secret offer ” between China and the Duterte leadership over the hotly contested Second Thomas Shoal, which has been at the center of new rising sea conflicts in the South China Sea.
As the Southeast Asian nation defends its fundamental royal passions, Marcos Jr. is taking on China and its allies on numerous fronts.
The Duterte to Marcos Jr. transition is highlighted by the Balikatan exercises this year. The Philippines and China have been faking clear armed fights for months, with the most recent incident involving a water cannon that caused injuries to several Philippine ships and damage to several of them.
The Biden administration’s response is to make clear that it will stand by its besieged South Asian ally, which has a limited capacity to face China, which is far more powerful.
Next year’s Balikatan exercises were now huge, featuring as many as 17,000 soldiers as well as watchers from half a dozen countries, including the United Kingdom.
By deploying up to 11,000 forces this year, the Pentagon has signaled a “new standard ” in its security cooperation with the Philippines. This year’s observer nations ’ list is also larger and more diverse than previous year’s, featuring a mixture of adjacent and allied countries.
Other countries in the Indo-Pacific are expected to directly take part in the activities, with France reported to be sailing warships close to the South China Sea exercises, while Australia and Japan are expected to observe the exercises.
The US also raised the stakes this year by deploying cutting-edge weapons systems, including the newly developed Typhon missile launchers system and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System ( HIMARS ) launchers for live-fire exercises.
For its part, the Philippines will install, for the first time, its newly-built ship-based missile system, known as C-star, which is capable of reaching target as far as 90 miles ( 144. 8 km ) ahead.
According to Philippine Army spokesman Colonel Louie Dema-ala,” We will use all the available assets of the Philippine Army to demonstrate connectivity in all big services.” told local media network GMA Network.
The 39th version of monthly drills will have a full variety of exercises, including live-fire education, urban operations, aircraft operations, counterterrorism, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and, most crucially, island defense and marine operations that simulate a possible conflict with China.
On Balabac island in Palawan province, where the two allies will simulate the recapture of island territories that jut out into the South China Sea, will be held a series of drills.
In the event of a Chinese invasion of nearby Taiwan, the two sides will simulate protection of the northernmost Philippine islands in Lal-lo airport in northern Cagayan province.
According to Colonel Fransel Margareth Padilla, the newly installed spokesperson for the Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP), the games will also have cyberspace and information warfare components in a new twist, according to Colonel Fransel Margareth Padilla, the newly installed spokesperson for the Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP).
Significantly, the massive wargames coincide with domestic pushback against pro-Beijing elements in the Philippines.
The Philippine government is looking into potential criminal charges, particularly for former officials who participated in negotiations with China while the Duterte administration was in office.
After months of speculation and denials, Duterte recently confirmed that he had a “gentleman’s agreement” with China over the Second Thomas Shoal.
As part of Beijing’s efforts to establish confidence in the South China Sea, the former Filipino president allegedly agreed not to fortify the dilapidated ship BRP Sierra Madre, which serves as Manila’s de facto base over the disputed shoal, as part of the alleged agreement.
“The only thing I remember ( was it was a ) status quo ( agreement ). That’s the word…As is, where is, ( which means ), no movement, no armed patrol there, so there would be no trouble, that is what I remember ), ” Duterte said in a mixture of Filipino and English during a controversial interview with China ’s ultranationalist The Global Times.
“If it was a gentleman’s agreement, it was an agreement that keeps the peace in the South China Sea…Don’t believe their false claims because I’m not that stupid, ” he added, referring to critics who have accused Duterte of committing treason through the agreement.
Since other former top officials have denied the existence of any policy that would harm the Philippines ‘ national interest, it is unclear as to what exactly happened to the secret deal.
If anything, Delfin Lorenzana, the then-defense secretary, was in charge of the fortification of Philippine bases and facilities throughout the tense Spratly group of islands, whereas resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal remained routine.
That’s not how the Marcos Jr administration sees it, though. At a recent press conference, Marcos Jr. declared,” I am horrified by the idea that we have compromised the territory and the sovereign rights of the Filipino.”
“For me, it ’s clear that they [ Duterte administration ] hid something – they had discussions that were kept from the people, number one, ” he added, in speaking to concerns over potentially treasonous acts under the former president.
“[ If ] you have any secret, any agreement with another sovereign state should really be known by the people, should be known by the elected officials, should be known by the Senate. since the Senate will ratify the treaty. It should be known by all the local officials. It should be known by everyone, ” Marcos said.
“If it ’s a bad decision, you’re accountable, ” he warned in a shot across Duterte’s bow.
It’s unclear how far the Philippine government will pursue the former president over the issue given the Marcoses ‘ fragile relationship with the Dutertes, especially the newly elected vice president Sara Duterte.
However, Marcos ‘ supporters in the Philippine Congress are likely to continue holding hearings on the former president’s “secret deal ” with China, which could lead to a potential political crackdown on pro-Beijing forces as Marcos Jr. launches a multifaceted counterrepression campaign against China and its proxies.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian