President Biden’s disastrous polling results, especially in seven key swing states where he has lost support in every demographic segment, especially among minority men, are attributed to inflation that peaked at 18 % and continues to be above 8 %.
With unemployment at 3.8 %, which is just about above the all-time low, and inflation at 3.1 % year-on-year in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Biden should be cruising toward reelection on a wave of positive economic news.
The problem is that the , government’s economic figures are  , ambiguous, according to a major former Democratic standard.
Prices remains above 8 %, after peaking above 18 %, according to Barack Obama’s Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, an ex- leader of Harvard. Summers and a group of academics  , re- calculated , the inflation level using the president’s old strategy, which took into account the cost of financing a house. This study’s results reveal that cpi is more than twice as high as the standard figure.
Additionally, these figures take into account the$ 200 per month increase in auto ownership due to the cost of financing a car.
Today’s prices, I argued in a , 2023 research  , for RealClearPolitics, had nothing to do with the record- driven price boom of the 1970s. It was funded by$ 6 trillion in household subsidies during the Covid recession. A tidal wave of require hit a fairly stable source, and costs surged.
Biden’s attempt to buy off the public failed. Direct cash payments made to individuals by the federal government increased by 50 % following the 2020 Covid crisis, from less than$ 3 trillion a year to a peak of$ 4.5 trillion a year. The Trump Administration provided emergency aid during the Covid closure, a defensible , determine when the business shut down. However, Biden accelerated the expenditures when the country was now experiencing treatment. That touched off , the prices.
The Fed tightened credit in 1979 to stop inflation, which was fueled by a record 35 % increase in institution breaks between 1977 and 1979. That was the appropriate course of action next. However, banks record did not experience any progress between 2020 and 2022. In my RealClearPolitics study, I warned that “raising interest rates may only generate things worse.”
How much worse stuff got, Larry Summers and his team had shown. Despite booming employment, The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment continues to be in near-recession territory, something economists have n’t seen before.  ,
The interest rate on a new 30-year mortgage for the average home has increased more than tenfold since 2021, given that home prices have remained at historic peaks despite higher interest rates. The interest payment on a new car loan has increased more than 80 percent ( Figure 3B ) since the start of the pandemic”, Summers and Co. calculate. The Fed’s mishandling has led to a rise in the cost of living, as seen in their report’s tables, which were significantly higher for home loan and car bills.
By another calculate, just 74 % of American families can manage homebuying, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s analysis. That’s the same percentage as it was just before the 2008 housing bubble’s top.
Low-income employees are unable to purchase homes and cars despite having a minimum income that seems to increase by over 5 % annually.
That explains why Biden performs poorly in the polls, particularly among those who do n’t live in the Democratic core.  , The RealClearPolitics surveys shows Trump leading in major arenas by 48.2 to Biden’s 45.4, and by 42.1 to Biden’s 39.8 in the 5- means RealClearPolitics votes normal.
A majority of Latino people and 30 % of black people will vote for Donald Trump next November, in a huge turnaround of 2020 election designs, according to a , Wall Street Journal , surveys of seven jump states released April 3. The poll , has many of , poor news , for President Biden,” as well as” one piece of potentially damaging information for the group Biden leads: The columns that hold up the Democratic alliance are showing injuries,” the newspapers wrote.
In particular”, the mix of Black, Latino and young voters who have been crucial to electing Democratic candidates , are withholding support from Biden , or shifting toward , Donald Trump– a trend particularly dramatic among men. No voter segment demonstrated increasing Biden’s support.